IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i22p7477-d1275695.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Novel Approach for Day-Ahead Hourly Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Prediction by Using Feature Engineering and Simple Weather Forecasting Service

Author

Listed:
  • Jinhwa Jeong

    (Department of Architectural Engineering, Gachon University, 1342, Seongnam-daero, Sujeong-gu, Seongnam-si 13120, Republic of Korea)

  • Dongkyu Lee

    (Department of Quantum AI, ICT Center, LG Electronics Inc., Seoul 137130, Republic of Korea)

  • Young Tae Chae

    (Department of Architectural Engineering, Gachon University, 1342, Seongnam-daero, Sujeong-gu, Seongnam-si 13120, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

Although the accuracy of short-term prediction of building-integrated photovoltaics is essential to making an optimal decision on the management of the generated electricity, the weather forecasting service in many countries provides insufficient features for improving the prediction accuracy of the photovoltaics power output. This study suggests a machine learning model incorporated with feature engineering to improve the prediction performance of day-ahead hourly power outputs using a simple weather forecast service. A new synthetic feature, the modified sky condition, is derived to infer onsite sky condition and solar irradiation, which is not supported by the typical weather forecasting services. It evaluated the prediction performance with different training and hyper-parameter conditions for 60 days. By using the derived modified sky condition, the model outperformed other predictor configurations in most daily sky conditions; particularly, the accuracy improved by more than 50% on overcast days compared to when it used the original weather forecasting service data. The result demonstrates the feasibility and ability of the model to enable more efficient energy management of building-integrated photovoltaic power output in buildings without an onsite weather station, thus contributing toward the optimized dispatch of the integrated electricity energy storage system and other distributed energy resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinhwa Jeong & Dongkyu Lee & Young Tae Chae, 2023. "A Novel Approach for Day-Ahead Hourly Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Prediction by Using Feature Engineering and Simple Weather Forecasting Service," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-21, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:22:p:7477-:d:1275695
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/22/7477/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/22/7477/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goodwin, Paul & Lawton, Richard, 1999. "On the asymmetry of the symmetric MAPE," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 405-408, October.
    2. Abou Houran, Mohamad & Salman Bukhari, Syed M. & Zafar, Muhammad Hamza & Mansoor, Majad & Chen, Wenjie, 2023. "COA-CNN-LSTM: Coati optimization algorithm-based hybrid deep learning model for PV/wind power forecasting in smart grid applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    3. Isaac Gallardo & Daniel Amor & Álvaro Gutiérrez, 2023. "Recent Trends in Real-Time Photovoltaic Prediction Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Liu, Jia & Zhou, Yuekuan & Yang, Hongxing & Wu, Huijun, 2022. "Net-zero energy management and optimization of commercial building sectors with hybrid renewable energy systems integrated with energy storage of pumped hydro and hydrogen taxis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    5. Li, Yanting & He, Yong & Su, Yan & Shu, Lianjie, 2016. "Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 392-401.
    6. Yu, Kunjie & Liang, J.J. & Qu, B.Y. & Cheng, Zhiping & Wang, Heshan, 2018. "Multiple learning backtracking search algorithm for estimating parameters of photovoltaic models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 408-422.
    7. Furukakoi, Masahiro & Adewuyi, Oludamilare Bode & Matayoshi, Hidehito & Howlader, Abdul Motin & Senjyu, Tomonobu, 2018. "Multi objective unit commitment with voltage stability and PV uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 618-623.
    8. Sun, Tao & Shan, Ming & Rong, Xing & Yang, Xudong, 2022. "Estimating the spatial distribution of solar photovoltaic power generation potential on different types of rural rooftops using a deep learning network applied to satellite images," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
    9. Gassar, Abdo Abdullah Ahmed & Cha, Seung Hyun, 2021. "Review of geographic information systems-based rooftop solar photovoltaic potential estimation approaches at urban scales," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    10. Polasek, Tomas & Čadík, Martin, 2023. "Predicting photovoltaic power production using high-uncertainty weather forecasts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiang, Hou & Zhang, Xiaotong & Yao, Ling & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Liu, Tang & Zhou, Chenghu, 2023. "High-resolution analysis of rooftop photovoltaic potential based on hourly generation simulations and load profiles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    2. Özdemir, Samed & Yavuzdoğan, Ahmet & Bilgilioğlu, Burhan Baha & Akbulut, Zeynep, 2023. "SPAN: An open-source plugin for photovoltaic potential estimation of individual roof segments using point cloud data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Kelachukwu J. Iheanetu, 2022. "Solar Photovoltaic Power Forecasting: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-31, December.
    4. Chen, Qi & Li, Xinyuan & Zhang, Zhengjia & Zhou, Chao & Guo, Zhiling & Liu, Zhengguang & Zhang, Haoran, 2023. "Remote sensing of photovoltaic scenarios: Techniques, applications and future directions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    5. Molnár, Gergely & Cabeza, Luisa F. & Chatterjee, Souran & Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana, 2024. "Modelling the building-related photovoltaic power production potential in the light of the EU's Solar Rooftop Initiative," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    6. Monika Zimmermann & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Efficient mid-term forecasting of hourly electricity load using generalized additive models," Papers 2405.17070, arXiv.org.
    7. Jiang, Sufan & Gao, Shan & Pan, Guangsheng & Zhao, Xin & Liu, Yu & Guo, Yasen & Wang, Sicheng, 2020. "A novel robust security constrained unit commitment model considering HVDC regulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    8. Mujammil Asdhiyoga Rahmanta & Rahmat Adiprasetya Al Hasibi & Handrea Bernando Tambunan & Ruly & Agussalim Syamsuddin & Indra Ardhanayudha Aditya & Benny Susanto, 2024. "Towards a Net Zero-Emission Electricity Generation System by Optimizing Renewable Energy Sources and Nuclear Power Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-22, April.
    9. Wei Sun & Yujun He & Hong Chang, 2015. "Forecasting Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption for Power Generation Using QHSA-Based LSSVM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-21, January.
    10. Philippe St-Aubin & Bruno Agard, 2022. "Precision and Reliability of Forecasts Performance Metrics," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-22, October.
    11. Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Lawrence, Michael & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2009. "Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23.
    12. Jianing Li & Cheng Qin & Chen Yang & Bin Ai & Yecheng Zhou, 2023. "Extraction of Single Diode Model Parameters of Solar Cells and PV Modules by Combining an Intelligent Optimization Algorithm with Simplified Explicit Equation Based on Lambert W Function," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-23, July.
    13. Mehmet Yesilbudak, 2021. "Parameter Extraction of Photovoltaic Cells and Modules Using Grey Wolf Optimizer with Dimension Learning-Based Hunting Search Strategy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-27, September.
    14. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "A comparison of day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on deep learning neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Crone, Sven F. & Hibon, Michèle & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2011. "Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 635-660.
    16. Aurelia Rybak & Aleksandra Rybak & Spas D. Kolev, 2023. "Modeling the Photovoltaic Power Generation in Poland in the Light of PEP2040: An Application of Multiple Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-17, November.
    17. Chen, Fuhao & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Yamin & Tjernberg, Lina Bertling, 2024. "A novel meta-learning approach for few-shot short-term wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 362(C).
    18. Diaa Salman & Mehmet Kusaf, 2021. "Short-Term Unit Commitment by Using Machine Learning to Cover the Uncertainty of Wind Power Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-22, December.
    19. Ruan, Zhaohui & Sun, Weiwei & Yuan, Yuan & Tan, Heping, 2023. "Accurately forecasting solar radiation distribution at both spatial and temporal dimensions simultaneously with fully-convolutional deep neural network model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    20. Mohammad Masih Sediqi & Mohammed Elsayed Lotfy & Abdul Matin Ibrahimi & Tomonobu Senjyu & Narayanan. K, 2019. "Stochastic Unit Commitment and Optimal Power Trading Incorporating PV Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-16, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:22:p:7477-:d:1275695. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.