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Solar Radiation Prediction Based on Convolution Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory

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  • Tingting Zhu

    (College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
    Key Laboratory of Measurement and Control of Complex Systems of Engineering (Southeast University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210096, China)

  • Yiren Guo

    (College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China)

  • Zhenye Li

    (College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China)

  • Cong Wang

    (College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China)

Abstract

Photovoltaic power generation is highly valued and has developed rapidly throughout the world. However, the fluctuation of solar irradiance affects the stability of the photovoltaic power system and endangers the safety of the power grid. Therefore, ultra-short-term solar irradiance predictions are widely used to provide decision support for power dispatching systems. Although a great deal of research has been done, there is still room for improvement regarding the prediction accuracy of solar irradiance including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance and diffuse irradiance. This study took the direct normal irradiance (DNI) as prediction target and proposed a Siamese convolutional neural network-long short-term memory (SCNN-LSTM) model to predict the inter-hour DNI by combining the time-dependent spatial features of total sky images and historical meteorological observations. First, the features of total sky images were automatically extracted using a Siamese CNN to describe the cloud information. Next, the image features and meteorological observations were fused and then predicted the DNI in 10-min ahead using an LSTM. To verify the validity of the proposed SCNN-LSTM model, several experiments were carried out using two-year historical observation data provided by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The results show that the proposed method achieved nRMSE of 23.47% and forecast skill of 24.51% for the whole year of 2014, and it also did better than some published methods especially under clear sky and rainy days.

Suggested Citation

  • Tingting Zhu & Yiren Guo & Zhenye Li & Cong Wang, 2021. "Solar Radiation Prediction Based on Convolution Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:24:p:8498-:d:704139
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    2. Eduardo Rangel-Heras & César Angeles-Camacho & Erasmo Cadenas-Calderón & Rafael Campos-Amezcua, 2022. "Short-Term Forecasting of Energy Production for a Photovoltaic System Using a NARX-CVM Hybrid Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-23, April.
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    5. Zang, Haixiang & Chen, Dianhao & Liu, Jingxuan & Cheng, Lilin & Sun, Guoqiang & Wei, Zhinong, 2024. "Improving ultra-short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using a novel sky-image-based framework considering spatial-temporal feature interaction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    6. Victor Hugo Wentz & Joylan Nunes Maciel & Jorge Javier Gimenez Ledesma & Oswaldo Hideo Ando Junior, 2022. "Solar Irradiance Forecasting to Short-Term PV Power: Accuracy Comparison of ANN and LSTM Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.
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    8. Christopher K. Wikle & Abhirup Datta & Bhava Vyasa Hari & Edward L. Boone & Indranil Sahoo & Indulekha Kavila & Stefano Castruccio & Susan J. Simmons & Wesley S. Burr & Won Chang, 2023. "An illustration of model agnostic explainability methods applied to environmental data," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), February.
    9. Hossam Fraihat & Amneh A. Almbaideen & Abdullah Al-Odienat & Bassam Al-Naami & Roberto De Fazio & Paolo Visconti, 2022. "Solar Radiation Forecasting by Pearson Correlation Using LSTM Neural Network and ANFIS Method: Application in the West-Central Jordan," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, March.
    10. Neethu Elizabeth Michael & Manohar Mishra & Shazia Hasan & Ahmed Al-Durra, 2022. "Short-Term Solar Power Predicting Model Based on Multi-Step CNN Stacked LSTM Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Ajith, Meenu & Martínez-Ramón, Manel, 2023. "Deep learning algorithms for very short term solar irradiance forecasting: A survey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    12. Evan Sauter & Maqsood Mughal & Ziming Zhang, 2023. "Evaluation of Machine Learning Methods on Large-Scale Spatiotemporal Data for Photovoltaic Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-26, June.
    13. Ouyang, Tiancheng & Pan, Mingming & Huang, Youbin & Tan, Xianlin & Qin, Peijia, 2023. "Thermodynamic design and power prediction of a solar power tower integrated system using neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    14. Wen-Chang Tsai & Chia-Sheng Tu & Chih-Ming Hong & Whei-Min Lin, 2023. "A Review of State-of-the-Art and Short-Term Forecasting Models for Solar PV Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-30, July.
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