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Forecasting Solar PV Output Using Convolutional Neural Networks with a Sliding Window Algorithm

Author

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  • Vishnu Suresh

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland)

  • Przemyslaw Janik

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland)

  • Jacek Rezmer

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland)

  • Zbigniew Leonowicz

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland)

Abstract

The stochastic nature of renewable energy sources, especially solar PV output, has created uncertainties for the power sector. It threatens the stability of the power system and results in an inability to match power consumption and production. This paper presents a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) approach consisting of different architectures, such as the regular CNN, multi-headed CNN, and CNN-LSTM (CNN-Long Short-Term Memory), which utilizes a sliding window data-level approach and other data pre-processing techniques to make accurate forecasts. The output of the solar panels is linked to input parameters such as irradiation, module temperature, ambient temperature, and windspeed. The benchmarking and accuracy metrics are calculated for 1 h, 1 day, and 1 week for the CNN based methods which are then compared with the results from the autoregressive moving average and multiple linear regression models in order to demonstrate its efficacy in making short-term and medium-term forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Vishnu Suresh & Przemyslaw Janik & Jacek Rezmer & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2020. "Forecasting Solar PV Output Using Convolutional Neural Networks with a Sliding Window Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:3:p:723-:d:317713
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    Cited by:

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    6. Md Mijanur Rahman & Mohammad Shakeri & Sieh Kiong Tiong & Fatema Khatun & Nowshad Amin & Jagadeesh Pasupuleti & Mohammad Kamrul Hasan, 2021. "Prospective Methodologies in Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems for Energy Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-28, February.
    7. Victor Hugo Wentz & Joylan Nunes Maciel & Jorge Javier Gimenez Ledesma & Oswaldo Hideo Ando Junior, 2022. "Solar Irradiance Forecasting to Short-Term PV Power: Accuracy Comparison of ANN and LSTM Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.
    8. Putri Nor Liyana Mohamad Radzi & Muhammad Naveed Akhter & Saad Mekhilef & Noraisyah Mohamed Shah, 2023. "Review on the Application of Photovoltaic Forecasting Using Machine Learning for Very Short- to Long-Term Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    9. Fachrizal Aksan & Vishnu Suresh & Przemysław Janik & Tomasz Sikorski, 2023. "Load Forecasting for the Laser Metal Processing Industry Using VMD and Hybrid Deep Learning Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-24, July.
    10. Jinyu Meng & Zengchuan Dong & Yiqing Shao & Shengnan Zhu & Shujun Wu, 2022. "Monthly Runoff Forecasting Based on Interval Sliding Window and Ensemble Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Jesús Polo, 2022. "Advances and Challenges in Solar PV Systems’ Performance," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-2, August.
    12. Sergio Cantillo-Luna & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & David Celeita & George Anders, 2023. "Deep and Machine Learning Models to Forecast Photovoltaic Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.
    13. Gülsah Erdogan & Wiem Fekih Hassen, 2023. "Charging Scheduling of Hybrid Energy Storage Systems for EV Charging Stations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-29, September.
    14. Xiaorui Shao & Chang-Soo Kim & Palash Sontakke, 2020. "Accurate Deep Model for Electricity Consumption Forecasting Using Multi-Channel and Multi-Scale Feature Fusion CNN–LSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-22, April.
    15. Muhannad Alaraj & Ibrahim Alsaidan & Astitva Kumar & Mohammad Rizwan & Majid Jamil, 2023. "Advanced Intelligent Approach for Solar PV Power Forecasting Using Meteorological Parameters for Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-16, June.
    16. Elias Roumpakias & Tassos Stamatelos, 2023. "Comparative Performance Analysis of a Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Plant in Central Greece after Several Years of Operation Using Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-26, May.
    17. Fachrizal Aksan & Yang Li & Vishnu Suresh & Przemysław Janik, 2023. "Multistep Forecasting of Power Flow Based on LSTM Autoencoder: A Study Case in Regional Grid Cluster Proposal," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-20, June.
    18. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    19. Zbigniew Leonowicz & Michał Jasiński, 2021. "Signal Analysis in Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-3, November.
    20. Arturo Y. Jaen-Cuellar & David A. Elvira-Ortiz & Roque A. Osornio-Rios & Jose A. Antonino-Daviu, 2022. "Advances in Fault Condition Monitoring for Solar Photovoltaic and Wind Turbine Energy Generation: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-36, July.

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