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BASS Model Analysis in “Crossing the Chasm” in E-Cars Innovation Diffusion Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Brdulak

    (Faculty of Computer Science and Management, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland)

  • Grażyna Chaberek

    (Faculty of Oceanography and Geography, University of Gdansk, 80-309 Gdańsk, Poland)

  • Jacek Jagodziński

    (Faculty of Electronics, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland)

Abstract

In the face of contemporary ecological problems, including the influence of transport and mobility on the greenhouse effect, policy makers see a solution in the technology of electric vehicles (EVs). This innovation has appeared in the automotive market around the world. In this article, Rogers’ innovation diffusion concept was used to determine if and when EVs could replace combustion engine vehicles. The aim of the article is to analyze the current situation of innovative electric vehicle (EV) technology on the European Union (EU) market and the potential and possible directions of its market diffusion. As a result of the analysis of the current situation of the EU automotive markets, three groups of countries with different market conditions regarding the development of EV technology were distinguished. The classification was carried out using the K-means clustering algorithm, based on the current level of innovation and the level of development of the LPG-(Liquefied Petroleum Gas) powered car market. Then, a group of countries with the greatest advancement in EV technology was selected for further research and market diffusion scenarios were created for this innovation using the Bass model, assuming the target market size of 70–100% of all passenger cars.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Brdulak & Grażyna Chaberek & Jacek Jagodziński, 2021. "BASS Model Analysis in “Crossing the Chasm” in E-Cars Innovation Diffusion Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:11:p:3216-:d:566287
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Brdulak & Grażyna Chaberek & Jacek Jagodziński, 2020. "Development Forecasts for the Zero-Emission Bus Fleet in Servicing Public Transport in Chosen EU Member Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    3. Kowalska-Pyzalska, Anna & Kott, Joanna & Kott, Marek, 2020. "Why Polish market of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is the smallest in Europe? SWOT analysis of opportunities and threats," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Christian Thiel & Anastasios Tsakalidis & Arnulf Jäger-Waldau, 2020. "Will Electric Vehicles Be Killed (again) or Are They the Next Mobility Killer App?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-10, April.
    5. Anna Brdulak & Grażyna Chaberek & Jacek Jagodziński, 2020. "Determination of Electricity Demand by Personal Light Electric Vehicles (PLEVs): An Example of e-Motor Scooters in the Context of Large City Management in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Christodoulou, Aris & Christidis, Panayotis, 2020. "Bridges across borders: A clustering approach to support EU regional policy," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Massiani, Jérôme & Gohs, Andreas, 2015. "The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-28.
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