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Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040

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  • Reda Cherif
  • Fuad Hasanov
  • Aditya Pande

Abstract

Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.

Suggested Citation

  • Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov & Aditya Pande, 2017. "Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040," IMF Working Papers 2017/120, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/120
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    1. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov & Aditya Pande, 2021. "Riding the Energy Transition: Oil beyond 2040," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 117-137, January.
    2. Nooman Rebei & Rashid Sbia, 2021. "Transitory and permanent shocks in the global market for crude oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 1047-1064, November.
    3. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2021. "Lithium industry and the U.S. crude oil prices. A fractional cointegration VAR and a Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Manuel Monge & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "The Lithium Industry and Analysis of the Beta Term Structure of Oil Companies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Eunsung Kim & Eunnyeong Heo, 2019. "Key Drivers behind the Adoption of Electric Vehicle in Korea: An Analysis of the Revealed Preferences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Abdellatif Sellami & Mohammad Ammar & Zubair Ahmad, 2022. "Exploring Teachers’ Perceptions of the Barriers to Teaching STEM in High Schools in Qatar," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    7. Tsuguhiko Nakagawa, 2021. "Comment on “Riding the Energy Transition: Oil beyond 2040”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 140-141, January.
    8. Daniel Santabárbara, 2017. "The oil market: recent developments and outlook," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP.
    9. Kancharapu Aditya & Y. Suresh & R. Dilip Kumar & B. Shiva Naik & B. Nageswar Rao & C. Dhanamjayulu, 2023. "A Single Source Self-Balanced Boost MLI with Reduced Part Count for EV Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-18, February.
    10. Baffes,John & Kabundi,Alain Ntumba & Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2018. "The role of major emerging markets in global commodity demand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8495, The World Bank.
    11. Clement Oteng & Omowumi Iledare & James Atta Peprah & Pius Gamette, 2024. "Towards Just Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Transition Dynamics and Sectorial Employment in Ghana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-18, April.
    12. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "Energy and the Environment: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, January.
    13. Azam, Muhammad & Ftiti, Zied & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Louhichi, Wael & Verhoeven, Peter, 2022. "Do market-supporting institutions promote sustainable development? Evidence from developing economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    14. Daniel Santabárbara, 2017. "Evolución reciente y perspectivas del mercado de petróleo," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue SEP.
    15. Earl, James & Fell, Michael J., 2019. "Electric vehicle manufacturers' perceptions of the market potential for demand-side flexibility using electric vehicles in the United Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 646-652.
    16. John W Lang & N. Aldori, 2020. "An Extension to Late Rentierism, using a Comparative Compound Diversification Index, to Show the Movement Towards Mixed Mode Economic Diversification and Development, in the GCC States," Business and Management Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 4057-4057, December.
    17. Peszko,Grzegorz & Van Der Mensbrugghe,Dominique & Golub,Alexander Alexandrovich, 2020. "Diversification and Cooperation Strategies in a Decarbonizing World," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9315, The World Bank.

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