IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i7p1782-d342520.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Foresight as a Tool for the Planning and Implementation of Visions for Smart City Development

Author

Listed:
  • Danuta Szpilko

    (Faculty of Engineering Management, Bialystok University of Technology, Wiejska 45A, 15-351 Białystok, Poland)

Abstract

Global change, including population growth, economic development and climate change constitute urgent challenges for the smart cities of the 21st century. Cities need to effectively manage their development and meet challenges that have a significant impact on their economic activity, as well as health and quality of life for their citizens. In the context of continuous change, city decision-makers are constantly looking for new smart tools to tackle it. This article addresses this gap, indicating foresight as an effective tool that anticipates the future of a smart city. Its aim is to develop a methodology for planning and implementing a vision of smart city development based on foresight research. The proposed methodology consists of five stages and was developed with the use of methodology for designing hybrid systems. It is an organised, transparent and flexible process which can facilitate the development of sustainable and smart future visions of smart city development by virtue of the involvement, knowledge and experience of a large number of urban stakeholders at all stages of its creation. The article discusses in detail the operationalisation of each stage of the methodology in which the following main methods were used: megatrend analysis, factors analysis: social (S), technological (T), economic (E), ecological (E), political (P), relating to values (V) and legal (L) (STEEPVL), structural analysis, Delphi, creative visioning, scenarios and identifying actions related to the development of a smart city, divided into four categories: new, so far not undertaken (N); implemented so far, to be continued (C); redundant, to be discontinued (R); actions that have been implemented in the past and to be restored (R) (NCRR). The summary enumerates the benefits that foresight implementation can bring to the smart city.

Suggested Citation

  • Danuta Szpilko, 2020. "Foresight as a Tool for the Planning and Implementation of Visions for Smart City Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-24, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:7:p:1782-:d:342520
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/7/1782/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/7/1782/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Griet Juwet & Michael Ryckewaert, 2018. "Energy Transition in the Nebular City: Connecting Transition Thinking, Metabolism Studies, and Urban Design," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Krassimira Paskaleva & Ian Cooper & Per Linde & Bo Peterson & Christina Götz, 2015. "Stakeholder Engagement in the Smart City: Making Living Labs Work," Public Administration and Information Technology, in: Manuel Pedro Rodríguez-Bolívar (ed.), Transforming City Governments for Successful Smart Cities, edition 127, pages 115-145, Springer.
    3. Lee, Jung Hoon & Hancock, Marguerite Gong & Hu, Mei-Chih, 2014. "Towards an effective framework for building smart cities: Lessons from Seoul and San Francisco," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 80-99.
    4. Lanjouw, P. & Marra, M.R., 2018. "Urban poverty across the spectrum of Vietnam’s towns and cities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 295-306.
    5. Guo Chao Alex Peng & Miguel Baptista Nunes & Luqing Zheng, 0. "Impacts of low citizen awareness and usage in smart city services: the case of London’s smart parking system," Information Systems and e-Business Management, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-32.
    6. Joanna Ejdys & Alicja Gudanowska & Katarzyna Halicka & Anna Kononiuk & Andrzej Magruk & Joanicjusz Nazarko & Lukasz Nazarko & Danuta Szpilko & Urszula Widelska, 2019. "Foresight in Higher Education Institutions: Evidence from Poland," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 77-89.
    7. Bugge, Markus M. & Fevolden, Arne Martin & Klitkou, Antje, 2019. "Governance for system optimization and system change: The case of urban waste," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 1076-1090.
    8. Paraskevi Giourka & Mark W. J. L. Sanders & Komninos Angelakoglou & Dionysis Pramangioulis & Nikos Nikolopoulos & Dimitrios Rakopoulos & Athanasios Tryferidis & Dimitrios Tzovaras, 2019. "The Smart City Business Model Canvas—A Smart City Business Modeling Framework and Practical Tool," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    9. Guo Chao Alex Peng & Miguel Baptista Nunes & Luqing Zheng, 2017. "Impacts of low citizen awareness and usage in smart city services: the case of London’s smart parking system," Information Systems and e-Business Management, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 845-876, November.
    10. Gabriela Viale Pereira & Maria Alexandra Cunha & Thomas J. Lampoltshammer & Peter Parycek & Maurício Gregianin Testa, 2017. "Increasing collaboration and participation in smart city governance: a cross-case analysis of smart city initiatives," Information Technology for Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 526-553, July.
    11. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    12. Bjørgen, Astrid & Seter, Hanne & Kristensen, Terje & Pitera, Kelly, 2019. "The potential for coordinated logistics planning at the local level: A Norwegian in-depth study of public and private stakeholders," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 34-41.
    13. Ulrik Ekman, 2018. "Smart City Planning: Complexity," International Journal of E-Planning Research (IJEPR), IGI Global, vol. 7(3), pages 1-21, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joanna Ejdys & Aleksandra Gulc, 2020. "Trust in Courier Services and Its Antecedents as a Determinant of Perceived Service Quality and Future Intention to Use Courier Service," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Merit Tatar & Tarmo Kalvet & Marek Tiits, 2020. "Cities4ZERO Approach to Foresight for Fostering Smart Energy Transition on Municipal Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-30, July.
    3. Magruk Andrzej & Kononiuk Anna, 2024. "Role of the Copernicus Satellite Programme in Building the Resilience of European Supply Chains: Results of a Delphi Study," Engineering Management in Production and Services, Sciendo, vol. 16(3), pages 29-40.
    4. Jooseok Oh & Minho Seo, 2021. "Measuring Citizens-Centric Smart City: Development and Validation of Ex-Post Evaluation Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Justyna Winkowska & Danuta Szpilko, 2020. "Methodology for Integration of Smart City Dimensions in the Socialised Process of Creating City Development," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 524-547.
    6. Danuta Szpilko & Ewa Glinska & Joanna Szydlo, 2020. "STEEPVL and Structural Analysis as a Tools Supporting Identification of the Driving Forces of City Development," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 340-363.
    7. Vítor de Castro Paes & Clinton Hudson Moreira Pessoa & Rodrigo Pereira Pagliusi & Carlos Eduardo Barbosa & Matheus Argôlo & Yuri Oliveira de Lima & Herbert Salazar & Alan Lyra & Jano Moreira de Souza, 2023. "Analyzing the Challenges for Future Smart and Sustainable Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Alba Arias & Irati Otamendi-Irizar & Olatz Grijalba & Xabat Oregi & Rufino Javier Hernandez-Minguillon, 2022. "Surveillance and Foresight Process of the Sustainable City Context: Innovation Potential Niches and Trends at the European Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-13, July.
    9. Piotr Przybyłowski & Adam Przybyłowski & Agnieszka Kałaska, 2021. "Utility Method as an Instrument of the Quality of Life Assessment Using the Examples of Selected European Cities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Justyna Winkowska & Danuta Szpilko, 2020. "Methodology for Integration of Smart City Dimensions in the Socialised Process of Creating City Development," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 524-547.
    2. Paraskevi Giourka & Mark W. J. L. Sanders & Komninos Angelakoglou & Dionysis Pramangioulis & Nikos Nikolopoulos & Dimitrios Rakopoulos & Athanasios Tryferidis & Dimitrios Tzovaras, 2019. "The Smart City Business Model Canvas—A Smart City Business Modeling Framework and Practical Tool," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Paula Bajdor & Marta Starostka-Patyk, 2021. "Smart City: A Bibliometric Analysis of Conceptual Dimensions and Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-28, July.
    4. Solis, Miriam & Bashar, Samira Binte, 2022. "Social equity implications of advanced water metering infrastructure," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Haarstad, Håvard & Wathne, Marikken W., 2019. "Are smart city projects catalyzing urban energy sustainability?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 918-925.
    6. Barbara Caselli & Gloria Pellicelli & Silvia Rossetti & Michele Zazzi, 2022. "How Are Medium-Sized Cities Implementing Their Smart City Governance? Experiences from the Emilia-Romagna Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
    7. Danuta Szpilko & Ewa Glinska & Joanna Szydlo, 2020. "STEEPVL and Structural Analysis as a Tools Supporting Identification of the Driving Forces of City Development," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 340-363.
    8. Si Ying Tan & Araz Taeihagh, 2020. "Smart City Governance in Developing Countries: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-29, January.
    9. Insaf Khelladi & Sylvaine Castellano & David Kalisz, 2020. "The smartization of metropolitan cities: the case of Paris," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1301-1325, December.
    10. Karimikia, Hadi & Bradshaw, Robert & Singh, Harminder & Ojo, Adegboyega & Donnellan, Brian & Guerin, Michael, 2022. "An emergent taxonomy of boundary spanning in the smart city context – The case of smart Dublin," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    11. Ljubi, Klara & Groznik, Aleš, 2023. "Role played by social factors and privacy concerns in autonomous vehicle adoption," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Mora, Luca & Gerli, Paolo & Ardito, Lorenzo & Messeni Petruzzelli, Antonio, 2023. "Smart city governance from an innovation management perspective: Theoretical framing, review of current practices, and future research agenda," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    13. Mun-su Park & Hwansoo Lee, 2020. "Smart City Crime Prevention Services: The Incheon Free Economic Zone Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-13, July.
    14. Hasan Fehmi Topal & Dexter V.L. Hunt & Christopher D.F. Rogers, 2020. "Urban Sustainability and Smartness Understanding (USSU)—Identifying Influencing Factors: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-30, June.
    15. Prommer, Lisa & Tiberius, Victor & Kraus, Sascha, 2020. "Exploring the future of startup leadership development," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    16. Bas Kolen & Matthijs Kok & Ira Helsloot & Bob Maaskant, 2013. "EvacuAid: A Probabilistic Model to Determine the Expected Loss of Life for Different Mass Evacuation Strategies During Flood Threats," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(7), pages 1312-1333, July.
    17. Meissner, Philip & Brands, Christian & Wulf, Torsten, 2017. "Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 244-253.
    18. Fabio Salamanca-Buentello & Mary V Seeman & Abdallah S Daar & Ross E G Upshur, 2020. "The ethical, social, and cultural dimensions of screening for mental health in children and adolescents of the developing world," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-25, August.
    19. Prianto Budi Saptono & Gustofan Mahmud & Intan Pratiwi & Dwi Purwanto & Ismail Khozen & Muhamad Akbar Aditama & Siti Khodijah & Maria Eurelia Wayan & Rina Yuliastuty Asmara & Ferry Jie, 2023. "Development of Climate-Related Disclosure Indicators for Application in Indonesia: A Delphi Method Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-25, July.
    20. Vu, Khuong & Hartley, Kris, 2018. "Promoting smart cities in developing countries: Policy insights from Vietnam," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 845-859.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:7:p:1782-:d:342520. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.