IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i11p2924-d368330.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Will China Achieve Its Ambitious Goal?—Forecasting the CO 2 Emission Intensity of China towards 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Li

    (Business School, Shandong University at Weihai, Weihai 264209, China)

  • Yigang Wei

    (School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100083, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of Emergency Support Simulation Technologies for City Operation, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Zhang Dong

    (The School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Beihang University, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

China has set out an ambitious target of emission abatement; that is, a 60–65% reduction in CO 2 emission intensity by 2030 compared with the 2005 baseline level and emission peak realisation. This paper aimed to forecast whether China can fulfil the reduction target of CO 2 emission intensity and peak by 2030 based on the historical time series data from 1990 to 2018. Four different forecasting techniques were used to improve the accuracy of the forecasting results: the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and three grey system-based models, including the traditional grey model (1,1), the discrete grey model (DGM) and the rolling DGM. The behaviours of these techniques were compared and validated in the forecasting comparisons. The forecasting performance of the four forecasting models was good considering the minimum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), demonstrating MAPE values lower than 2%. ARIMA showed the best forecasting performance over the historical period with a MAPE value of 0.60%. The forecasting results of ARIMA indicate that China would not achieve sufficient reductions despite its projected emission peak of 96.3 hundred million tons by 2021. That is, the CO 2 emission intensity of China will be reduced by 57.65% in 2030 compared with the 2005 levels. This reduction is lower than the government goal of 60–65%. This paper presents pragmatic recommendations for effective emission intensity reduction to ensure the achievements of the claimed policy goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Li & Yigang Wei & Zhang Dong, 2020. "Will China Achieve Its Ambitious Goal?—Forecasting the CO 2 Emission Intensity of China towards 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-23, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:11:p:2924-:d:368330
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/11/2924/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/11/2924/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. ZhongXiang Zhang, 2011. "Assessing China’s carbon intensity pledge for 2020: stringency and credibility issues and their implications," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 13(3), pages 219-235, September.
    2. Hongjun Dai & Tao Sun & Kun Zhang & Wen Guo, 2015. "Research on Rural Nonpoint Source Pollution in the Process of Urban-Rural Integration in the Economically-Developed Area in China Based on the Improved STIRPAT Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, January.
    3. Du, Kerui & Lu, Huang & Yu, Kun, 2014. "Sources of the potential CO2 emission reduction in China: A nonparametric metafrontier approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 491-501.
    4. Feng Dong & Ruyin Long & Hong Chen & Xiaohui Li & Qingliang Yang, 2013. "Factors Affecting Regional Per-Capita Carbon Emissions in China Based on an LMDI Factor Decomposition Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Li, Baizhan & Yao, Runming, 2009. "Urbanisation and its impact on building energy consumption and efficiency in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1994-1998.
    6. Li, Yan & Wei, Yigang & Zhang, Xiaoling & Tao, Yuan, 2020. "Regional and provincial CO2 emission reduction task decomposition of China's 2030 carbon emission peak based on the efficiency, equity and synthesizing principles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 237-256.
    7. Zhou, Lu & Li, Jing & Chiang, Yat Hung, 2013. "Promoting energy efficient building in China through clean development mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 338-346.
    8. Zhang, Zhongxiang, 2000. "Decoupling China's Carbon Emissions Increase from Economic Growth: An Economic Analysis and Policy Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 739-752, April.
    9. Choi, Yongrok & Zhang, Ning & Zhou, P., 2012. "Efficiency and abatement costs of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: A slacks-based efficiency measure," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 198-208.
    10. Yu, Shiwei & Wei, Yi-Ming & Wang, Ke, 2014. "Provincial allocation of carbon emission reduction targets in China: An approach based on improved fuzzy cluster and Shapley value decomposition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 630-644.
    11. Wang, Jianzhou & Dong, Yao & Wu, Jie & Mu, Ren & Jiang, He, 2011. "Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5970-5979, October.
    12. Liu, Liwei & Zong, Haijing & Zhao, Erdong & Chen, Chuxiang & Wang, Jianzhou, 2014. "Can China realize its carbon emission reduction goal in 2020: From the perspective of thermal power development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 199-212.
    13. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2008. "Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 229-247, May.
    14. Shilong Piao & Jingyun Fang & Philippe Ciais & Philippe Peylin & Yao Huang & Stephen Sitch & Tao Wang, 2009. "The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7241), pages 1009-1013, April.
    15. Wei, Yigang & Li, Yan & Wu, Meiyu & Li, Yingbo, 2019. "The decomposition of total-factor CO2 emission efficiency of 97 contracting countries in Paris Agreement," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 365-378.
    16. Yigang Wei & Yan Li & Xinjing Liu & Meiyu Wu, 2020. "Sustainable development and green gross domestic product assessments in megacities based on the emergy analysis method—A case study of Wuhan," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 294-307, January.
    17. Wang, Run & Liu, Wenjuan & Xiao, Lishan & Liu, Jian & Kao, William, 2011. "Path towards achieving of China's 2020 carbon emission reduction target--A discussion of low-carbon energy policies at province level," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2740-2747, May.
    18. Xu, Lei & Chen, Nengcheng & Chen, Zeqiang, 2017. "Will China make a difference in its carbon intensity reduction targets by 2020 and 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 874-882.
    19. Liu, Yaobin, 2009. "Exploring the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China using ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and FDM (factor decomposition model)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1846-1854.
    20. Michinori Uwasu & Yi Jiang & Tatsuyoshi Saijo, 2010. "On the Chinese Carbon Reduction Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(6), pages 1-5, June.
    21. Su, Bin & Ang, B.W., 2014. "Input–output analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in trade: A multi-region model for China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 377-384.
    22. Yigang Wei & Cui Huang & Patrick T. I. Lam & Yong Sha & Yong Feng, 2015. "Using Urban-Carrying Capacity as a Benchmark for Sustainable Urban Development: An Empirical Study of Beijing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-25, March.
    23. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    24. He, Jiankun & Deng, Jing & Su, Mingshan, 2010. "CO2 emission from China's energy sector and strategy for its control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4494-4498.
    25. Chu, Ching-Wu & Zhang, Guoqiang Peter, 2003. "A comparative study of linear and nonlinear models for aggregate retail sales forecasting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 217-231, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bolortuya Purev & Weida He, 2021. "Coal industrial supply chain network: Mongolian capabilities across the Asian market," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 19(1), pages 401-411, May.
    2. Yan Li & Yigang Wei & Xueqing Wang & Hanxiao Xu, 2021. "Substantial Nitrogen Oxide Pollution Is Embodied in the Bilateral Trade between China and the European Union," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-16, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ying Wang & Peipei Shang & Lichun He & Yingchun Zhang & Dandan Liu, 2018. "Can China Achieve the 2020 and 2030 Carbon Intensity Targets through Energy Structure Adjustment?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-32, October.
    2. Du, Limin & Hanley, Aoife & Wei, Chu, 2015. "Estimating the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve of CO2 Emissions in China: Provincial Panel Data Analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 217-229.
    3. Liu, Liwei & Zong, Haijing & Zhao, Erdong & Chen, Chuxiang & Wang, Jianzhou, 2014. "Can China realize its carbon emission reduction goal in 2020: From the perspective of thermal power development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 199-212.
    4. Chuyu Xia & Yan Li & Yanmei Ye & Zhou Shi & Jingming Liu, 2017. "Decomposed Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions and Scenario Analyses of Low-Carbon Transformation in 2020 and 2030 for Zhejiang Province," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Xing Zhou & Meihua Zhou & Ming Zhang, 2016. "Contrastive analyses of the influence factors of interprovincial carbon emission induced by industry energy in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1405-1433, April.
    6. Yue-Jun Zhang & Zhao Liu & Huan Zhang & Tai-De Tan, 2014. "The impact of economic growth, industrial structure and urbanization on carbon emission intensity in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 579-595, September.
    7. Lin, Boqiang & Sai, Rockson, 2022. "Sustainable transitioning in Africa: A historical evaluation of energy productivity changes and determinants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    8. Du, Limin & Mao, Jie, 2015. "Estimating the environmental efficiency and marginal CO2 abatement cost of coal-fired power plants in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 347-356.
    9. Zhang, Chuanguo & Lin, Yan, 2012. "Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 488-498.
    10. Haiyan Shan & Junliang Yang & Guo Wei, 2019. "Industrial Symbiosis Systems: Promoting Carbon Emission Reduction Activities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-23, March.
    11. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Hao, Jun-Fang & Song, Juan, 2016. "The CO2 emission efficiency, reduction potential and spatial clustering in China’s industry: Evidence from the regional level," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 213-223.
    12. Ni, Jinlan & Wei, Chu & Du, Limin, 2015. "Revealing the political decision toward Chinese carbon abatement: Based on equity and efficiency criteria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 609-621.
    13. ZhongXiang Zhang, 2017. "Are China's climate commitments in a post‐Paris agreement sufficiently ambitious?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(2), March.
    14. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2011. "Breaking the Impasse in International Climate Negotiations: A New Direction for Currently Flawed Negotiations and a Roadmap for China to 2050," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 108263, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    15. Wang, Xiaolei & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "How to reduce CO2 emissions in China׳s iron and steel industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1496-1505.
    16. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Ao-Dong & Da, Ya-Bin, 2014. "Regional allocation of carbon emission quotas in China: Evidence from the Shapley value method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 454-464.
    17. QIN, Bo & WU, Jianfeng, 2015. "Does urban concentration mitigate CO2 emissions? Evidence from China 1998–2008," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 220-231.
    18. Zhao, Xueting & Wesley Burnett, J. & Lacombe, Donald J., 2015. "Province-level convergence of China’s carbon dioxide emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 286-295.
    19. Bian, Yiwen & He, Ping & Xu, Hao, 2013. "Estimation of potential energy saving and carbon dioxide emission reduction in China based on an extended non-radial DEA approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 962-971.
    20. Dong, Xiao-Ying & Hao, Yu, 2018. "Would income inequality affect electricity consumption? Evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 215-227.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:11:p:2924-:d:368330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.