IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v10y2017i11p1747-d117045.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposed Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions and Scenario Analyses of Low-Carbon Transformation in 2020 and 2030 for Zhejiang Province

Author

Listed:
  • Chuyu Xia

    (Institute of Land Science and Property, School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    Laboratory of Rural-Urban Construction Land Economical and Intensive Use, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100812, China)

  • Yan Li

    (Institute of Land Science and Property, School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    Laboratory of Rural-Urban Construction Land Economical and Intensive Use, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100812, China)

  • Yanmei Ye

    (Institute of Land Science and Property, School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    Laboratory of Rural-Urban Construction Land Economical and Intensive Use, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100812, China)

  • Zhou Shi

    (Institute of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Information Technology Application, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Jingming Liu

    (School of Public Policy and Administration Department of Public Administration, Xi’an JiaoTong University, Xi’an 710049, China)

Abstract

Climate change has gained widespread attention, and the rapid growth of the economy in China has generated a considerable amount of carbon emissions. Zhejiang Province was selected as a study area. First, the energy-related carbon emissions from 2000 to 2014 were accounted for, and then the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition model was applied to analyse the driving factors underlying the carbon emissions. Finally, three scenarios (inertia, comparative decoupling and absolute decoupling) for 2020 and 2030 were simulated based on the low-carbon city and Human Impact Population Affluence Technology (IPAT) models. The results showed (1) carbon emissions increased by 1.66 times from 2000 to 2014, and trends of carbon emissions were used to divide the study period into three phases (rapid, medium growth and slow decrease phases, with annual growth rates of 12.60%, 4.77% and −1.24%, respectively); (2) the energy intensity effect from 2000–2011 inhibited carbon emissions but was exceeded by the economic output effect, which increased emissions, whereas the energy intensity effect from 2011–2014 outweighed the economic output effect; (3) the scenario analyses revealed that both the comparative and absolute decoupling scenarios would remain consistent with the carbon emissions boundaries in 2020 and 2030, but the comparative decoupling scenario was more reasonable for sustainable development. In addition, appropriate design of emission trading scheme could help to achieve the comparative decoupling by financial incentives.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuyu Xia & Yan Li & Yanmei Ye & Zhou Shi & Jingming Liu, 2017. "Decomposed Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions and Scenario Analyses of Low-Carbon Transformation in 2020 and 2030 for Zhejiang Province," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:11:p:1747-:d:117045
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1747/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1747/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Mi, Zhifu & Zhang, Yunkun & Guan, Dabo & Shan, Yuli & Liu, Zhu & Cong, Ronggang & Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Consumption-based emission accounting for Chinese cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1073-1081.
    3. Chen, Guangwu & Wiedmann, Thomas & Wang, Yafei & Hadjikakou, Michalis, 2016. "Transnational city carbon footprint networks – Exploring carbon links between Australian and Chinese cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1082-1092.
    4. Qiang Wang & Rongrong Li & Rui Jiang, 2016. "Decoupling and Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Industry: A Case Study from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-17, October.
    5. Cosimo Magazzino, 2014. "A Panel VAR Approach of the Relationship among Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions, and Energy Use in the ASEAN-6 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 546-553.
    6. Jie-fang Dong & Qiang Wang & Chun Deng & Xing-min Wang & Xiao-lei Zhang, 2016. "How to Move China toward a Green-Energy Economy: From a Sector Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, April.
    7. Hübler, Michael & Voigt, Sebastian & Löschel, Andreas, 2014. "Designing an emissions trading scheme for China—An up-to-date climate policy assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 57-72.
    8. Chuyu Xia & Yan Li & Yanmei Ye & Zhou Shi, 2016. "An Integrated Approach to Explore the Relationship Among Economic, Construction Land Use, and Ecology Subsystems in Zhejiang Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-20, May.
    9. Guangwu Chen & Thomas Wiedmann & Michalis Hadjikakou & Hazel Rowley, 2016. "City Carbon Footprint Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-16, July.
    10. Wang, Peng & Dai, Han-cheng & Ren, Song-yan & Zhao, Dai-qing & Masui, Toshihiko, 2015. "Achieving Copenhagen target through carbon emission trading: Economic impacts assessment in Guangdong Province of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 212-227.
    11. Dongquan He & Fei Meng & Michael Q. Wang & Kebin He, 2011. "Impacts of Urban Transportation Mode Split on CO 2 Emissions in Jinan, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-15, April.
    12. Xinlin Zhang & Yuan Zhao & Qi Sun & Changjian Wang, 2017. "Decomposition and Attribution Analysis of Industrial Carbon Intensity Changes in Xinjiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-16, March.
    13. Gomi, Kei & Shimada, Kouji & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2010. "A low-carbon scenario creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4783-4796, September.
    14. Li, Li & Chen, Changhong & Xie, Shichen & Huang, Cheng & Cheng, Zhen & Wang, Hongli & Wang, Yangjun & Huang, Haiying & Lu, Jun & Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2010. "Energy demand and carbon emissions under different development scenarios for Shanghai, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4797-4807, September.
    15. Dong, Yanli & Ishikawa, Masanobu & Liu, Xianbing & Wang, Can, 2010. "An analysis of the driving forces of CO2 emissions embodied in Japan-China trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6784-6792, November.
    16. Yu, Shiwei & Wei, Yi-Ming & Wang, Ke, 2014. "Provincial allocation of carbon emission reduction targets in China: An approach based on improved fuzzy cluster and Shapley value decomposition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 630-644.
    17. Liu, Liwei & Zong, Haijing & Zhao, Erdong & Chen, Chuxiang & Wang, Jianzhou, 2014. "Can China realize its carbon emission reduction goal in 2020: From the perspective of thermal power development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 199-212.
    18. Steffen Lehmann & Atiq U. Zaman & John Devlin & Nicholas Holyoak, 2013. "Supporting Urban Planning of Low-Carbon Precincts: Integrated Demand Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(12), pages 1-30, December.
    19. Zhou, P. & Zhang, L. & Zhou, D.Q. & Xia, W.J., 2013. "Modeling economic performance of interprovincial CO2 emission reduction quota trading in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1518-1528.
    20. Changjian Wang & Fei Wang & Hongou Zhang & Yuyao Ye & Qitao Wu & Yongxian Su, 2014. "Carbon Emissions Decomposition and Environmental Mitigation Policy Recommendations for Sustainable Development in Shandong Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-16, November.
    21. Li, You & Hewitt, C.N., 2008. "The effect of trade between China and the UK on national and global carbon dioxide emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1907-1914, June.
    22. Xiaoping Zhu & Rongrong Li, 2017. "An Analysis of Decoupling and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from the Transportation Sector in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, April.
    23. Cosimo Magazzino, 2016. "The relationship between real GDP, CO2 emissions, and energy use in the GCC countries: A time series approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1152729-115, December.
    24. Liu, Xianbing & Ishikawa, Masanobu & Wang, Can & Dong, Yanli & Liu, Wenling, 2010. "Analyses of CO2 emissions embodied in Japan-China trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1510-1518, March.
    25. Wang, Run & Liu, Wenjuan & Xiao, Lishan & Liu, Jian & Kao, William, 2011. "Path towards achieving of China's 2020 carbon emission reduction target--A discussion of low-carbon energy policies at province level," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2740-2747, May.
    26. Liu, Yaobin, 2009. "Exploring the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China using ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and FDM (factor decomposition model)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1846-1854.
    27. Birdsall, Nancy, 1992. "Another look at population and global warming," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1020, The World Bank.
    28. Phdungsilp, Aumnad, 2010. "Integrated energy and carbon modeling with a decision support system: Policy scenarios for low-carbon city development in Bangkok," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4808-4817, September.
    29. Jiefang Dong & Chun Deng & Rongrong Li & Jieyu Huang, 2016. "Moving Low-Carbon Transportation in Xinjiang: Evidence from STIRPAT and Rigid Regression Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    30. Yi, Wen-Jing & Zou, Le-Le & Guo, Jie & Wang, Kai & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2011. "How can China reach its CO2 intensity reduction targets by 2020? A regional allocation based on equity and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2407-2415, May.
    31. Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Guan, Dabo, 2009. "Lifestyles, technology and CO2 emissions in China: A regional comparative analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 145-154, November.
    32. Lixiao Zhang & Yueyi Feng & Bin Chen, 2011. "Alternative Scenarios for the Development of a Low-Carbon City: A Case Study of Beijing, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(12), pages 1-16, December.
    33. Fei Wang & Changjian Wang & Yongxian Su & Lixia Jin & Yang Wang & Xinlin Zhang, 2017. "Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emission Factors from Energy Consumption in Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2014," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    34. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yi-Ming Wei & Bing Wang & Jing Meng & Zhu Liu & Yuli Shan & Jingru Liu & Dabo Guan, 2017. "Socioeconomic impact assessment of China's CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 103, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    35. Rina Wu & Jiquan Zhang & Yuhai Bao & Quan Lai & Siqin Tong & Youtao Song, 2016. "Decomposing the Influencing Factors of Industrial Sector Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Inner Mongolia Based on the LMDI Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-14, July.
    36. Wang, Mingwei & Che, Yue & Yang, Kai & Wang, Min & Xiong, Lijun & Huang, Yuchi, 2011. "A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6981-6990.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weiguo Fan & Mengmeng Meng & Jianchang Lu & Xiaobin Dong & Hejie Wei & Xuechao Wang & Qing Zhang, 2020. "Decoupling Elasticity and Driving Factors of Energy Consumption and Economic Development in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Xiaopeng Wang & Xiang Chen & Yiman Cheng & Luyao Zhou & Yi Li & Yongliang Yang, 2020. "Factorial Decomposition of the Energy Footprint of the Shaoxing Textile Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-13, April.
    3. Xuanli Wang & Huifang Yu & Yiqun Wu & Congyue Zhou & Yonghua Li & Xingyu Lai & Jiahao He, 2024. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Carbon Emissions and Their Influencing Factors at the County Scale: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-25, March.
    4. Song Li & Fei Xue & Chuyu Xia & Jian Zhang & Ao Bian & Yuexi Lang & Jun Zhou, 2022. "A Big Data-Based Commuting Carbon Emissions Accounting Method—A Case of Hangzhou," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
    5. Ang, B.W. & Goh, Tian, 2019. "Index decomposition analysis for comparing emission scenarios: Applications and challenges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 74-87.
    6. Guorong Chen & Changyan Liu, 2023. "Can Low–Carbon City Development Stimulate Population Growth? Insights from China’s Low–Carbon Pilot Program," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-22, October.
    7. Lin Zhu & Lichun He & Peipei Shang & Yingchun Zhang & Xiaojun Ma, 2018. "Influencing Factors and Scenario Forecasts of Carbon Emissions of the Chinese Power Industry: Based on a Generalized Divisia Index Model and Monte Carlo Simulation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-26, September.
    8. Tao He & Xiuwei Lin & Yongli Qu & Chunbo Wei, 2023. "Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth of Animal Husbandry and Carbon Emission Based on Logarithmic Average Index Method and Decoupling Model: A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, June.
    9. Qingduo Mao & Ben Ma & Hongshuai Wang & Qi Bian, 2019. "Investigating Policy Instrument Adoption in Low-Carbon City Development: A Case Study from China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.
    10. Qifan Guan, 2023. "Decomposing and Decoupling the Energy-Related Carbon Emissions in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Using the Extended LMDI and Tapio Index Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-17, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhong, Zhangqi & Jiang, Lei & Zhou, Peng, 2018. "Transnational transfer of carbon emissions embodied in trade: Characteristics and determinants from a spatial perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 858-875.
    2. Jiang, Jingjing & Xie, Dejun & Ye, Bin & Shen, Bo & Chen, Zhanming, 2016. "Research on China’s cap-and-trade carbon emission trading scheme: Overview and outlook," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 902-917.
    3. Linwei Ma & Chinhao Chong & Xi Zhang & Pei Liu & Weiqi Li & Zheng Li & Weidou Ni, 2018. "LMDI Decomposition of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Based on Energy and CO 2 Allocation Sankey Diagrams: The Method and an Application to China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-37, January.
    4. Tian, Peng & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "Promoting green productivity growth for China's industrial exports: Evidence from a hybrid input-output model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 394-402.
    5. Wang, Changjian & Wang, Fei & Zhang, Xinlin & Yang, Yu & Su, Yongxian & Ye, Yuyao & Zhang, Hongou, 2017. "Examining the driving factors of energy related carbon emissions using the extended STIRPAT model based on IPAT identity in Xinjiang," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 51-61.
    6. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Xie, Dejun & Li, Ji & Miao, Lixin & Yang, Peng, 2017. "Sector decomposition of China’s national economic carbon emissions and its policy implication for national ETS development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 855-867.
    7. Suvajit Banerjee, 2021. "Addressing the carbon emissions embodied in India’s bilateral trade with two eminent Annex-II parties: with input–output and spatial decomposition analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5430-5464, April.
    8. Xinlin Zhang & Yuan Zhao & Qi Sun & Changjian Wang, 2017. "Decomposition and Attribution Analysis of Industrial Carbon Intensity Changes in Xinjiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-16, March.
    9. Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Xiaoyong & Xu, Qing & Wu, Fei & Wang, Qunwei & Zha, Donglan, 2018. "Regional embodied carbon emissions and their transfer characteristics in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 180-193.
    10. Huang, Hai & Roland-Holst, David & Springer, Cecilia & Lin, Jiang & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2019. "Emissions trading systems and social equity: A CGE assessment for China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1254-1265.
    11. Zhang, Youguo & Tang, Zhipeng, 2015. "Driving factors of carbon embodied in China's provincial exports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 445-454.
    12. Xuecheng Wang & Xu Tang & Zhenhua Feng & Yi Zhang, 2019. "Characterizing the Embodied Carbon Emissions Flows and Ecological Relationships among Four Chinese Megacities and Other Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, May.
    13. Guo, Ju’e & Zhang, Zengkai & Meng, Lei, 2012. "China’s provincial CO2 emissions embodied in international and interprovincial trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 486-497.
    14. Changjian Wang & Fei Wang & Gengzhi Huang & Yang Wang & Xinlin Zhang & Yuyao Ye & Xiaojie Lin & Zhongwu Zhang, 2021. "Examining the Dynamics and Determinants of Energy Consumption in China’s Megacity Based on Industrial and Residential Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, January.
    15. Yan Li & Yigang Wei & Zhang Dong, 2020. "Will China Achieve Its Ambitious Goal?—Forecasting the CO 2 Emission Intensity of China towards 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-23, June.
    16. Zhang, Zhonghua & Zhao, Yuhuan & Su, Bin & Zhang, Yongfeng & Wang, Song & Liu, Ya & Li, Hao, 2017. "Embodied carbon in China’s foreign trade: An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 492-510.
    17. Chang, Kai & Zhang, Chao & Chang, Hao, 2016. "Emissions reduction allocation and economic welfare estimation through interregional emissions trading in China: Evidence from efficiency and equity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1125-1135.
    18. Shiqing Zhang & Jianwei Wang & Wenlong Zheng, 2018. "Decomposition Analysis of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions and Decoupling Status in China’s Logistics Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, April.
    19. Wang, Hongsheng & Lei, Yue & Wang, Haikun & Liu, Miaomiao & Yang, Jie & Bi, Jun, 2013. "Carbon reduction potentials of China's industrial parks: A case study of Suzhou Industry Park," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 668-675.
    20. Yong Bian & Zhi Yu & Xuelan Zeng & Jingchun Feng & Chao He, 2018. "Achieving China’s Long-Term Carbon Emission Abatement Targets: A Perspective from Regional Disparity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-19, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:11:p:1747-:d:117045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.