IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v39y2011i10p5970-5979.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Jianzhou
  • Dong, Yao
  • Wu, Jie
  • Mu, Ren
  • Jiang, He

Abstract

With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jianzhou & Dong, Yao & Wu, Jie & Mu, Ren & Jiang, He, 2011. "Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5970-5979, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:5970-5979
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511005143
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lin, Bo-qiang & Liu, Jiang-hua, 2010. "Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 512-519, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Shiwei & Zhang, Junjie & Zheng, Shuhong & Sun, Han, 2015. "Provincial carbon intensity abatement potential estimation in China: A PSO–GA-optimized multi-factor environmental learning curve method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 46-55.
    2. Li, Jiaman & Dong, Xiucheng & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Kangyin & Liu, Guixian, 2021. "Natural gas trade network of countries and regions along the belt and road: Where to go in the future?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Chengjiang Li & Tingwen Jia & Shiyuan Wang & Xiaolin Wang & Michael Negnevitsky & Honglei Wang & Yujie Hu & Weibin Xu & Na Zhou & Gang Zhao, 2023. "Methanol Vehicles in China: A Review from a Policy Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Jean Niyigaba & Daiyan Peng, 2020. "Analysis and Forecasting the Agriculture Production Sector in Rwanda," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(8), pages 1-91, August.
    5. Yujing Liu & Ruoyun Du & Dongxiao Niu, 2022. "Forecast of Coal Demand in Shanxi Province Based on GA—LSSVM under Multiple Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Fu, Hsin-Chia & Tseng, Cheng-Lung, 2012. "Forecasting of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 400-409.
    7. Hao Liu & Xiaoquan Li & Xiaoyan Liu & Yunjie Sun & Zhiwen Yang & Yuankun Zhong, 2023. "Rule Study on the Risk of Floor Water Inrush Based on the Plate Model Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, May.
    8. Nana Geng & Yong Zhang & Yixiang Sun & Yunjian Jiang & Dandan Chen, 2015. "Forecasting China’s Annual Biofuel Production Using an Improved Grey Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Naiming Xie & Alan Pearman, 2014. "Forecasting energy consumption in China following instigation of an energy-saving policy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 639-659, November.
    10. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.
    11. Yan Li & Yigang Wei & Zhang Dong, 2020. "Will China Achieve Its Ambitious Goal?—Forecasting the CO 2 Emission Intensity of China towards 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-23, June.
    12. Sun, Sizhong & Anwar, Sajid, 2015. "R&D status and the performance of domestic firms in China's coal mining industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 99-103.
    13. Wang, Zhan-ao & Zheng, Chengsi, 2022. "Is technological innovation the cure for overcapacity? Exploring mediating and moderating mechanisms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 348-361.
    14. Wang, Delu & Ma, Gang & Song, Xuefeng & Liu, Yun, 2017. "Energy price slump and policy response in the coal-chemical industry district: A case study of Ordos with a system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 325-339.
    15. Zhang, Yanfang & Zhang, Ming & Liu, Yue & Nie, Rui, 2017. "Enterprise investment, local government intervention and coal overcapacity: The case of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 162-169.
    16. Sun, Shaolong & Qiao, Han & Wei, Yunjie & Wang, Shouyang, 2017. "A new dynamic integrated approach for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 151-162.
    17. Hu, Yan & Hall, Charles A.S. & Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Poisson, Alexandre, 2013. "Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of China's conventional fossil fuels: Historical and future trends," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 352-364.
    18. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2023. "Coking coal futures price index forecasting with the neural network," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 349-359, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Chengjin & Ducruet, César, 2014. "Transport corridors and regional balance in China: the case of coal trade and logistics," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 3-16.
    2. Kahrl, Fredrich & Williams, Jim & Jianhua, Ding & Junfeng, Hu, 2011. "Challenges to China's transition to a low carbon electricity system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4032-4041, July.
    3. Wang, Qiang & Song, Xiaoxin, 2021. "How UK farewell to coal – Insight from multi-regional input-output and logarithmic mean divisia index analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    4. Lin, Boqiang & Liu, Jianghua & Yang, Yingchun, 2012. "Impact of carbon intensity and energy security constraints on China's coal import," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 137-147.
    5. Erhu Bai & Xueyi Li & Wenbing Guo & Yi Tan & Mingjie Guo & Peng Wen & Zhibao Ma, 2022. "Characteristics and Formation Mechanism of Surface Residual Deformation above Longwall Abandoned Goaf," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Tang, Erzi & Peng, Chong, 2017. "A macro- and microeconomic analysis of coal production in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 234-242.
    7. Lin, Boqiang & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions and reduction potential in the Chinese non-metallic mineral products industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 688-697.
    8. Dmitry Alexandrovich Izotov, 2012. "Russian – Chinese Trade and Exchange Rate," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 3, pages 34-54.
    9. Zhang, Yujiang & Feng, Guorui & Zhang, Min & Ren, Hongrui & Bai, Jinwen & Guo, Yuxia & Jiang, Haina & Kang, Lixun, 2016. "Residual coal exploitation and its impact on sustainable development of the coal industry in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 534-541.
    10. Yang, D.L. & Tang, G.H. & Fan, Y.H. & Li, X.L. & Wang, S.Q., 2020. "Arrangement and three-dimensional analysis of cooling wall in 1000 MW S–CO2 coal-fired boiler," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    11. Xu Tang & Benjamin C. McLellan & Simon Snowden & Baosheng Zhang & Mikael Höök, 2015. "Dilemmas for China: Energy, Economy and Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-13, May.
    12. Yu Hao & Shang Gao & Yunxia Guo & Zhiqiang Gai & Haitao Wu, 2021. "Measuring the nexus between economic development and environmental quality based on environmental Kuznets curve: a comparative study between China and Germany for the period of 2000–2017," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(11), pages 16848-16873, November.
    13. Wang, Feng & Wu, Min & Du, Xuyang, 2023. "Does industrial upgrading improve eco-efficiency? Evidence from China's industrial sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Ting, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas supply in China: Production peak and import trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 225-233.
    15. Rebecca E. Atanga & Edward L. Boone & Ryad A. Ghanam & Ben Stewart-Koster, 2021. "Optimal Sampling Regimes for Estimating Population Dynamics," Stats, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-17, April.
    16. Zehua Yu & Zheng Li & Linwei Ma, 2023. "Strategies for the Resilience of Power-Coal Supply Chains in Low-Carbon Energy Transition: A System Dynamics Model and Scenario Analysis of China up to 2060," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, April.
    17. Chengjin Wang & César Ducruet, 2014. "Transport corridors and regional balance in China: the case of coal trade and logistics," Post-Print halshs-01069149, HAL.
    18. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    19. Wang, Ting & Lin, Boqiang, 2014. "Impacts of unconventional gas development on China׳s natural gas production and import," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 546-554.
    20. Chun Deng & Jie-Fang Dong, 2016. "Coal Consumption Reduction in Shandong Province: A Dynamic Vector Autoregression Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-16, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:5970-5979. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.