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The Evaluation and Sensitivity of Decline Curve Modelling

Author

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  • Prinisha Manda

    (Oil and Gas Production and Processing Research Unit, School of Chemical and Metallurgical Engineering, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa)

  • Diakanua Bavon Nkazi

    (Oil and Gas Production and Processing Research Unit, School of Chemical and Metallurgical Engineering, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa)

Abstract

The development of prediction tools for production performance and the lifespan of shale gas reservoirs has been a focus for petroleum engineers. Several decline curve models have been developed and compared with data from shale gas production. To accurately forecast the estimated ultimate recovery for shale gas reservoirs, consistent and accurate decline curve modelling is required. In this paper, the current decline curve models are evaluated using the goodness of fit as a measure of accuracy with field data. The evaluation found that there are advantages in using the current DCA models; however, they also have limitations associated with them that have to be addressed. Based on the accuracy assessment conducted on the different models, it appears that the Stretched Exponential Decline Model (SEDM) and Logistic Growth Model (LGM), followed by the Extended Exponential Decline Model (EEDM), the Power Law Exponential Model (PLE), the Doung’s Model, and lastly, the Arps Hyperbolic Decline Model, provide the best fit with production data.

Suggested Citation

  • Prinisha Manda & Diakanua Bavon Nkazi, 2020. "The Evaluation and Sensitivity of Decline Curve Modelling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:11:p:2765-:d:365647
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiaoyang Zhang & Xiaodong Wang & Xiaochun Hou & Wenli Xu, 2017. "Rate Decline Analysis of Vertically Fractured Wells in Shale Gas Reservoirs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-24, October.
    2. Lei Tan & Lihua Zuo & Binbin Wang, 2018. "Methods of Decline Curve Analysis for Shale Gas Reservoirs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Yuan, Jiehui & Luo, Dongkun & Feng, Lianyong, 2015. "A review of the technical and economic evaluation techniques for shale gas development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 49-65.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruud Weijermars, 2022. "Gaussian Decline Curve Analysis of Hydraulically Fractured Wells in Shale Plays: Examples from HFTS-1 (Hydraulic Fracture Test Site-1, Midland Basin, West Texas)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Catalin Popescu & Sorin Alexandru Gheorghiu, 2021. "Economic Analysis and Generic Algorithm for Optimizing the Investments Decision-Making Process in Oil Field Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-24, September.
    3. Taha Yehia & Ahmed Naguib & Mostafa M. Abdelhafiz & Gehad M. Hegazy & Omar Mahmoud, 2023. "Probabilistic Decline Curve Analysis: State-of-the-Art Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, May.

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