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A Cost-Effective and Transferable Methodology for Rooftop PV Potential Assessment in Developing Countries

Author

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  • Phuong Minh Khuong

    (Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany)

  • Russell McKenna

    (Energy Systems Analysis, Sustainability Division, Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)

  • Wolf Fichtner

    (Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany)

Abstract

The efficient uptake of decentralized solar rooftop photovoltaics (PV) is in some cases hindered by ineffective energy and political framework conditions. These may be based on inaccurate and uncertain potential assessments in the early development stage of the solar market. This paper develops a more accurate, cost-effective, and robust potential assessment for emerging and developing economies. Adjusting the module efficiency corresponding to regional and household conditions improves the output accuracy. The rooftop PV market changes are simulated regarding different input changes and policy designs, including changing the Feed-In Tariff (FIT), grid tariff, and technology development. In the case study, the market potential in Vietnam is estimated at 260–280 TWh/a and is clustered into six groups in priority order, in which Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh need the most policy focus. Changing the FIT from 8.83 to 9 Euro cent/kWh and using different regional FITs can activate an additional 16% of the market and lead to a possible 28 million Euro benefit. Increasing the grid tariff to 8.7 cents/kWh could activate the self-consumption model, and the self-sufficient market can be guaranteed in the case of CAPEX and OPEX being lower than 650 Euro/kWp. Future developments of the method should focus on combining this top-down method with detailed bottom-up approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Phuong Minh Khuong & Russell McKenna & Wolf Fichtner, 2020. "A Cost-Effective and Transferable Methodology for Rooftop PV Potential Assessment in Developing Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-46, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:10:p:2501-:d:358686
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    Cited by:

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    4. De Masi, Rosa Francesca & Gigante, Antonio & Ruggiero, Silvia & Vanoli, Giuseppe Peter, 2024. "Experimental and numerical approach for the evaluation of PV-system performance on energy and environmental behavior of nearly zero energy buildings: Case study in Mediterranean climate," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    5. Ludwik Wicki & Robert Pietrzykowski & Dariusz Kusz, 2022. "Factors Determining the Development of Prosumer Photovoltaic Installations in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Khuong, Phuong M. & Scheller, Fabian & McKenna, Russell & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2020. "Willingness to pay for residential PV: Reconciling gaps between acceptance and adoption," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 46, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    7. Wojciech Cieslik & Filip Szwajca & Wojciech Golimowski & Andrew Berger, 2021. "Experimental Analysis of Residential Photovoltaic (PV) and Electric Vehicle (EV) Systems in Terms of Annual Energy Utilization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-21, February.

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