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Agent-Based Modeling of a Thermal Energy Transition in the Built Environment

Author

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  • Graciela del Carmen Nava Guerrero

    (Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands)

  • Gijsbert Korevaar

    (Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands)

  • Helle Hvid Hansen

    (Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands)

  • Zofia Lukszo

    (Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands)

Abstract

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, an energy transition is taking place in the European Union. Achieving these targets requires changes in the heating and cooling sector (H&C). Designing and implementing this energy transition is not trivial, as technology, actors, and institutions interact in complex ways. We provide an illustrative example of the development and use of an agent-based model (ABM) for thermal energy transitions in the built environment, from the perspective of sociotechnical systems (STS) and complex adaptive systems (CAS). In our illustrative example, we studied the transition of a simplified residential neighborhood to heating without natural gas. We used the ABM to explore socioeconomic conditions that could support the neighborhoods’ transition over 20 years while meeting the neighborhoods’ heat demand. Our illustrative example showed that through the use of STS, CAS, and an ABM, we can account for technology, actors, institutions, and their interactions while designing for thermal energy transitions in the built environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Graciela del Carmen Nava Guerrero & Gijsbert Korevaar & Helle Hvid Hansen & Zofia Lukszo, 2019. "Agent-Based Modeling of a Thermal Energy Transition in the Built Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-25, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:5:p:856-:d:211012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fattahi, A. & Sijm, J. & Faaij, A., 2020. "A systemic approach to analyze integrated energy system modeling tools: A review of national models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Nielsen, Tore Bach & Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Duic, Neven & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2021. "Perspectives on energy efficiency and smart energy systems from the 5th SESAAU2019 conference," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Nava-Guerrero, Graciela-del-Carmen & Hansen, Helle Hvid & Korevaar, Gijsbert & Lukszo, Zofia, 2021. "The effect of group decisions in heat transitions: An agent-based approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Birgit A. Henrich & Thomas Hoppe & Devin Diran & Zofia Lukszo, 2021. "The Use of Energy Models in Local Heating Transition Decision Making: Insights from Ten Municipalities in The Netherlands," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-23, January.

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