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Multi-Site Photovoltaic Forecasting Exploiting Space-Time Convolutional Neural Network

Author

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  • Jaeik Jeong

    (Department of Electronic Engineering, Sogang University, Baekbeom-ro 35, Mapo-gu, Seoul 04107, Korea)

  • Hongseok Kim

    (Department of Electronic Engineering, Sogang University, Baekbeom-ro 35, Mapo-gu, Seoul 04107, Korea)

Abstract

The accurate forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is critical for smart grids and the renewable energy market. In this paper, we propose a novel short-term PV forecasting technique called the space-time convolutional neural network (STCNN) that exploits the location information of multiple PV sites and historical PV generation data. The proposed structure is simple but effective for multi-site PV forecasting. In doing this, we propose a greedy adjoining algorithm to preprocess PV data into a space-time matrix that captures spatio-temporal correlation, which is learned by a convolutional neural network. Extensive experiments with multi-site PV generation from three typical states in the US (California, New York, and Alabama) show that the proposed STCNN outperforms the conventional methods by up to 33% and achieves fairly accurate PV forecasting, e.g., 4.6–5.3% of the mean absolute percentage error for a 6 h forecasting horizon. We also investigate the effect of PV sites aggregation for virtual power plants where errors from some sites can be compensated by other sites. The proposed STCNN shows substantial error reduction by up to 40% when multiple PV sites are aggregated.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaeik Jeong & Hongseok Kim, 2019. "Multi-Site Photovoltaic Forecasting Exploiting Space-Time Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:23:p:4490-:d:290768
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qiaomu Zhu & Jinfu Chen & Lin Zhu & Xianzhong Duan & Yilu Liu, 2018. "Wind Speed Prediction with Spatio–Temporal Correlation: A Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Llinet Benavides Cesar & Rodrigo Amaro e Silva & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira, 2022. "Review on Spatio-Temporal Solar Forecasting Methods Driven by In Situ Measurements or Their Combination with Satellite and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Estimates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    2. Yin, He & Yang, Mao-sen & Lan, Hai & Hong, Ying-Yi & Guo, Dong & Jin, Feng, 2024. "A hybrid graph attention network based method for interval prediction of shipboard solar irradiation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    3. Dukhwan Yu & Wonik Choi & Myoungsoo Kim & Ling Liu, 2020. "Forecasting Day-Ahead Hourly Photovoltaic Power Generation Using Convolutional Self-Attention Based Long Short-Term Memory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Happy Aprillia & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2020. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using a Convolutional Neural Network–Salp Swarm Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, April.
    5. Jeong, Jaeik & Kim, Hongseok, 2021. "DeepComp: Deep reinforcement learning based renewable energy error compensable forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    6. Wen, Yan & Pan, Su & Li, Xinxin & Li, Zibo & Wen, Wuzhenghong, 2024. "Improving multi-site photovoltaic forecasting with relevance amplification: DeepFEDformer-based approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    7. Barja-Martinez, Sara & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Munné-Collado, Íngrid & Lloret-Gallego, Pau & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Villafafila-Robles, Roberto, 2021. "Artificial intelligence techniques for enabling Big Data services in distribution networks: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Simeunović, Jelena & Schubnel, Baptiste & Alet, Pierre-Jean & Carrillo, Rafael E. & Frossard, Pascal, 2022. "Interpretable temporal-spatial graph attention network for multi-site PV power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    9. Zaohui Kang & Jizhong Xue & Chun Sing Lai & Yu Wang & Haoliang Yuan & Fangyuan Xu, 2023. "Vision Transformer-Based Photovoltaic Prediction Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-14, June.
    10. Ling Liu & Fang Liu & Yuling Zheng, 2021. "A Novel Ultra-Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Method Based on DBN-Based Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-10, October.
    11. Rafael E. Carrillo & Martin Leblanc & Baptiste Schubnel & Renaud Langou & Cyril Topfel & Pierre-Jean Alet, 2020. "High-Resolution PV Forecasting from Imperfect Data: A Graph-Based Solution," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-17, November.
    12. Jimyung Kang & Jooseung Lee & Soonwoo Lee, 2023. "Data-Driven Minute-Ahead Forecast of PV Generation with Adjacent PV Sector Information," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-16, June.
    13. Dukhwan Yu & Seowoo Lee & Sangwon Lee & Wonik Choi & Ling Liu, 2020. "Forecasting Photovoltaic Power Generation Using Satellite Images," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-15, December.

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