IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i23p6419-d457002.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatio-Temporal Kriging Based Economic Dispatch Problem Including Wind Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Julio César Cuenca Tinitana

    (Department of Electromechanical Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Loja, Loja 110150, Ecuador
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Carlos Adrian Correa-Florez

    (Department of Electronic Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá 10231, Colombia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Diego Patino

    (Department of Electronic Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá 10231, Colombia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • José Vuelvas

    (Department of Electronic Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá 10231, Colombia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

The integration of renewable generation adds complexity to the operation of the power system due to its unpredictable characteristics. Therefore, the development of methods to accurately model the uncertainty is necessary. In this paper, the spatio-temporal kriging and analog approaches are used to forecast wind power generation and used as the input to solve an economic dispatch problem, considering the uncertainties of wind generation. Spatio-temporal kriging captures the spatial and temporal information available in the database to improve wind forecasts. We evaluate the performance of using the spatio-temporal kriging, and comparisons are carried out versus other approaches in the framework of the economic power dispatch problem, for which simulations are developed on the modified IEEE 3-bus and IEEE 24-bus test systems. The results demonstrate that the use of kriging based spatio-temporal models in the context of economic power dispatch can provide an opportunity for lower operating costs in the presence of uncertainty when compared to other approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio César Cuenca Tinitana & Carlos Adrian Correa-Florez & Diego Patino & José Vuelvas, 2020. "Spatio-Temporal Kriging Based Economic Dispatch Problem Including Wind Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-26, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:23:p:6419-:d:457002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/23/6419/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/23/6419/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sun, Mucun & Feng, Cong & Zhang, Jie, 2019. "Conditional aggregated probabilistic wind power forecasting based on spatio-temporal correlation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    2. Tansu Filik, 2016. "Improved Spatio-Temporal Linear Models for Very Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Xinxin Zhu & Marc Genton & Yingzhong Gu & Le Xie, 2014. "Rejoinder on: Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(1), pages 45-50, March.
    4. Monika Sandelic & Daniel-Ioan Stroe & Florin Iov, 2018. "Battery Storage-Based Frequency Containment Reserves in Large Wind Penetrated Scenarios: A Practical Approach to Sizing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Morales, Juan M. & Zugno, Marco & Pineda, Salvador & Pinson, Pierre, 2014. "Electricity market clearing with improved scheduling of stochastic production," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 765-774.
    6. Chen, Jun & Rabiti, Cristian, 2017. "Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 507-517.
    7. Xinxin Zhu & Marc Genton & Yingzhong Gu & Le Xie, 2014. "Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(1), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Camal, S. & Teng, F. & Michiorri, A. & Kariniotakis, G. & Badesa, L., 2019. "Scenario generation of aggregated Wind, Photovoltaics and small Hydro production for power systems applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1396-1406.
    9. Tang, Jia & Wang, Dan & Wang, Xuyang & Jia, Hongjie & Wang, Chengshan & Huang, Renle & Yang, Zhanyong & Fan, Menghua, 2017. "Study on day-ahead optimal economic operation of active distribution networks based on Kriging model assisted particle swarm optimization with constraint handling techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 143-162.
    10. Pishgar-Komleh, S.H. & Keyhani, A. & Sefeedpari, P., 2015. "Wind speed and power density analysis based on Weibull and Rayleigh distributions (a case study: Firouzkooh county of Iran)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 313-322.
    11. Anup Suryawanshi & Debraj Ghosh, 2015. "Wind speed prediction using spatio-temporal covariance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1435-1449, January.
    12. Qiaomu Zhu & Jinfu Chen & Lin Zhu & Xianzhong Duan & Yilu Liu, 2018. "Wind Speed Prediction with Spatio–Temporal Correlation: A Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, March.
    13. Ceyhun Yıldız & Mustafa Tekin & Ahmet Gani & Ö. Fatih Keçecioğlu & Hakan Açıkgöz & Mustafa Şekkeli, 2017. "A Day-Ahead Wind Power Scenario Generation, Reduction, and Quality Test Tool," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-15, May.
    14. Carrillo, C. & Obando Montaño, A.F. & Cidrás, J. & Díaz-Dorado, E., 2013. "Review of power curve modelling for wind turbines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 572-581.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ali M. Hakami & Kazi N. Hasan & Mohammed Alzubaidi & Manoj Datta, 2022. "A Review of Uncertainty Modelling Techniques for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Renewable-Rich Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-26, December.
    2. Mohammed Alzubaidi & Kazi N. Hasan & Lasantha Meegahapola & Mir Toufikur Rahman, 2021. "Identification of Efficient Sampling Techniques for Probabilistic Voltage Stability Analysis of Renewable-Rich Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-15, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ayman Al-Quraan & Bashar Al-Mhairat, 2022. "Intelligent Optimized Wind Turbine Cost Analysis for Different Wind Sites in Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia & Li, Qiwei & Ma, Xuejiao, 2018. "Comparison of seven methods for determining the optimal statistical distribution parameters: A case study of wind energy assessment in the large-scale wind farms of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 432-448.
    3. Amanda Hering, 2014. "Comments on: Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(1), pages 34-44, March.
    4. Amanda S. Hering & Karen Kazor & William Kleiber, 2015. "A Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Stochastic Wind Generator for Multiple Spatial and Temporal Scales," Resources, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, February.
    5. Ambach, Daniel & Schmid, Wolfgang, 2015. "Periodic and long range dependent models for high frequency wind speed data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 277-293.
    6. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2019. "Renewable generation forecast studies – Review and good practice guidance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 312-322.
    7. Song, Dongran & Liu, Junbo & Yang, Jian & Su, Mei & Wang, Yun & Yang, Xuebing & Huang, Lingxiang & Joo, Young Hoon, 2020. "Optimal design of wind turbines on high-altitude sites based on improved Yin-Yang pair optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. Zheng, Ling & Zhou, Bin & Or, Siu Wing & Cao, Yijia & Wang, Huaizhi & Li, Yong & Chan, Ka Wing, 2021. "Spatio-temporal wind speed prediction of multiple wind farms using capsule network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 718-730.
    9. Ziel, Florian & Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2016. "Forecasting wind power – Modeling periodic and non-linear effects under conditional heteroscedasticity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 285-297.
    10. Lohmann, Timo & Hering, Amanda S. & Rebennack, Steffen, 2016. "Spatio-temporal hydro forecasting of multireservoir inflows for hydro-thermal scheduling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(1), pages 243-258.
    11. Liu, Yin & Davanloo Tajbakhsh, Sam & Conejo, Antonio J., 2021. "Spatiotemporal wind forecasting by learning a hierarchically sparse inverse covariance matrix using wind directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 812-824.
    12. Daniel Ambach & Carsten Croonenbroeck, 2016. "Space-time short- to medium-term wind speed forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 25(1), pages 5-20, March.
    13. Baïle, Rachel & Muzy, Jean-François, 2023. "Leveraging data from nearby stations to improve short-term wind speed forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    14. Daniel Ambach & Carsten Croonenbroeck, 2016. "Space-time short- to medium-term wind speed forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 25(1), pages 5-20, March.
    15. Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Zeng, Cheng & Zhang, Cihang, 2017. "Short-term wind power prediction based on spatial model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1067-1074.
    16. Lingzhi Wang & Jun Liu & Fucai Qian, 2019. "A New Modeling Approach for the Probability Density Distribution Function of Wind power Fluctuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-16, October.
    17. Fazelpour, Farivar & Markarian, Elin & Soltani, Nima, 2017. "Wind energy potential and economic assessment of four locations in Sistan and Balouchestan province in Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 646-667.
    18. Reddy, Sohail R., 2021. "A machine learning approach for modeling irregular regions with multiple owners in wind farm layout design," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    19. Heo, SungKu & Byun, Jaewon & Ifaei, Pouya & Ko, Jaerak & Ha, Byeongmin & Hwangbo, Soonho & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2024. "Towards mega-scale decarbonized industrial park (Mega-DIP): Generative AI-driven techno-economic and environmental assessment of renewable and sustainable energy utilization in petrochemical industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    20. Timo Kern & Patrick Dossow & Serafin von Roon, 2020. "Integrating Bidirectionally Chargeable Electric Vehicles into the Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-30, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:23:p:6419-:d:457002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.