IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i2p358-d130115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Prediction Mechanism of Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings Using Hidden Markov Model

Author

Listed:
  • Israr Ullah

    (Computer Engineering Department, Jeju National University, Jeju-si 63243, Korea)

  • Rashid Ahmad

    (Computer Science Department, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Attock Campus 43600, Pakistan)

  • DoHyeun Kim

    (Computer Engineering Department, Jeju National University, Jeju-si 63243, Korea)

Abstract

Internet of Things (IoT) is considered as one of the future disruptive technologies, which has the potential to bring positive change in human lifestyle and uplift living standards. Many IoT-based applications have been designed in various fields, e.g., security, health, education, manufacturing, transportation, etc. IoT has transformed conventional homes into Smart homes. By attaching small IoT devices to various appliances, we cannot only monitor but also control indoor environment as per user demand. Intelligent IoT devices can also be used for optimal energy utilization by operating the associated equipment only when it is needed. In this paper, we have proposed a Hidden Markov Model based algorithm to predict energy consumption in Korean residential buildings using data collected through smart meters. We have used energy consumption data collected from four multi-storied buildings located in Seoul, South Korea for model validation and results analysis. Proposed model prediction results are compared with three well-known prediction algorithms i.e., Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART). Comparative analysis shows that our proposed model achieves 2.96 % better than ANN results in terms of root mean square error metric, 6.09 % better than SVM and 9.03 % better than CART results. To further establish and validate prediction results of our proposed model, we have performed temporal granularity analysis. For this purpose, we have evaluated our proposed model for hourly, daily and weekly data aggregation. Prediction accuracy in terms of root mean square error metric for hourly, daily and weekly data is 2.62, 1.54 and 0.46, respectively. This shows that our model prediction accuracy improves for coarse grain data. Higher prediction accuracy gives us confidence to further explore its application in building control systems for achieving better energy efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Israr Ullah & Rashid Ahmad & DoHyeun Kim, 2018. "A Prediction Mechanism of Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings Using Hidden Markov Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-20, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:2:p:358-:d:130115
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/2/358/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/2/358/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Široký, Jan & Oldewurtel, Frauke & Cigler, Jiří & Prívara, Samuel, 2011. "Experimental analysis of model predictive control for an energy efficient building heating system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(9), pages 3079-3087.
    2. Kusiak, Andrew & Li, Mingyang & Zhang, Zijun, 2010. "A data-driven approach for steam load prediction in buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 925-933, March.
    3. Amasyali, Kadir & El-Gohary, Nora M., 2018. "A review of data-driven building energy consumption prediction studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1192-1205.
    4. Kim, Suwon & Kim, Seongcheol, 2016. "A multi-criteria approach toward discovering killer IoT application in Korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 143-155.
    5. Wang, Zhu & Wang, Lingfeng & Dounis, Anastasios I. & Yang, Rui, 2012. "Multi-agent control system with information fusion based comfort model for smart buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 247-254.
    6. Soteris A. Kalogirou, 2006. "Artificial neural networks in energy applications in buildings," International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 201-216, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Antunes & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Rossana Riccardi & Yong Tan & Peter Wanke, 2022. "Unveiling endogeneity and temporal dependence in energy prices and demand in Iberian countries: a stochastic hidden Markov model approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 191-229, June.
    2. Arpad Gellert & Stefan-Alexandru Precup & Alexandru Matei & Bogdan-Constantin Pirvu & Constantin-Bala Zamfirescu, 2022. "Real-Time Assembly Support System with Hidden Markov Model and Hybrid Extensions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Anh Tuan Phan & Thi Tuyet Hong Vu & Dinh Quang Nguyen & Eleonora Riva Sanseverino & Hang Thi-Thuy Le & Van Cong Bui, 2022. "Data Compensation with Gaussian Processes Regression: Application in Smart Building’s Sensor Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Anam-Nawaz Khan & Naeem Iqbal & Atif Rizwan & Rashid Ahmad & Do-Hyeun Kim, 2021. "An Ensemble Energy Consumption Forecasting Model Based on Spatial-Temporal Clustering Analysis in Residential Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-25, May.
    5. Sehrish Malik & DoHyeun Kim, 2018. "Prediction-Learning Algorithm for Efficient Energy Consumption in Smart Buildings Based on Particle Regeneration and Velocity Boost in Particle Swarm Optimization Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Sarhang Sorguli & Husam Rjoub, 2023. "A Novel Energy Accounting Model Using Fuzzy Restricted Boltzmann Machine—Recurrent Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, March.
    7. Michael W. Hopwood & Lekha Patel & Thushara Gunda, 2022. "Classification of Photovoltaic Failures with Hidden Markov Modeling, an Unsupervised Statistical Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-12, July.
    8. Lili Gong & Wu Cao & Kangli Liu & Jianfeng Zhao & Xiang Li, 2018. "Spatial and Temporal Optimization Strategy for Plug-In Electric Vehicle Charging to Mitigate Impacts on Distribution Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, May.
    9. Wenquan Jin & Israr Ullah & Shabir Ahmad & Dohyeun Kim, 2019. "Occupant Comfort Management Based on Energy Optimization Using an Environment Prediction Model in Smart Homes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, February.
    10. Haben, Stephen & Arora, Siddharth & Giasemidis, Georgios & Voss, Marcus & Vukadinović Greetham, Danica, 2021. "Review of low voltage load forecasting: Methods, applications, and recommendations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    11. Xie, Minghua & Yi, Xiangyu & Liu, Kui & Sun, Chuanwang & Kong, Qingbao, 2023. "How much natural gas does China need: An empirical study from the perspective of energy transition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Israr Ullah & DoHyeun Kim, 2017. "An Improved Optimization Function for Maximizing User Comfort with Minimum Energy Consumption in Smart Homes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, November.
    2. Muhammad Fayaz & DoHyeun Kim, 2018. "Energy Consumption Optimization and User Comfort Management in Residential Buildings Using a Bat Algorithm and Fuzzy Logic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, January.
    3. Luo, X.J. & Oyedele, Lukumon O. & Ajayi, Anuoluwapo O. & Akinade, Olugbenga O. & Owolabi, Hakeem A. & Ahmed, Ashraf, 2020. "Feature extraction and genetic algorithm enhanced adaptive deep neural network for energy consumption prediction in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Wang, Zhu & Wang, Lingfeng & Dounis, Anastasios I. & Yang, Rui, 2012. "Multi-agent control system with information fusion based comfort model for smart buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 247-254.
    5. Abhinandana Boodi & Karim Beddiar & Malek Benamour & Yassine Amirat & Mohamed Benbouzid, 2018. "Intelligent Systems for Building Energy and Occupant Comfort Optimization: A State of the Art Review and Recommendations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-26, September.
    6. Guo, Yabin & Wang, Jiangyu & Chen, Huanxin & Li, Guannan & Liu, Jiangyan & Xu, Chengliang & Huang, Ronggeng & Huang, Yao, 2018. "Machine learning-based thermal response time ahead energy demand prediction for building heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 16-27.
    7. Abhinandana Boodi & Karim Beddiar & Yassine Amirat & Mohamed Benbouzid, 2022. "Building Thermal-Network Models: A Comparative Analysis, Recommendations, and Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-27, February.
    8. Ding, Zhikun & Chen, Weilin & Hu, Ting & Xu, Xiaoxiao, 2021. "Evolutionary double attention-based long short-term memory model for building energy prediction: Case study of a green building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    9. Kamel, Ehsan & Sheikh, Shaya & Huang, Xueqing, 2020. "Data-driven predictive models for residential building energy use based on the segregation of heating and cooling days," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    10. Zhao, Hai-xiang & Magoulès, Frédéric, 2012. "A review on the prediction of building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 3586-3592.
    11. Fath U Min Ullah & Noman Khan & Tanveer Hussain & Mi Young Lee & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Diving Deep into Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and a Novel Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-22, March.
    12. Zhan, Sicheng & Chong, Adrian, 2021. "Data requirements and performance evaluation of model predictive control in buildings: A modeling perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Zhang, Liang & Wen, Jin & Li, Yanfei & Chen, Jianli & Ye, Yunyang & Fu, Yangyang & Livingood, William, 2021. "A review of machine learning in building load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    14. Zahra Pooranian & Jemal H. Abawajy & Vinod P & Mauro Conti, 2018. "Scheduling Distributed Energy Resource Operation and Daily Power Consumption for a Smart Building to Optimize Economic and Environmental Parameters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, May.
    15. Kathirgamanathan, Anjukan & De Rosa, Mattia & Mangina, Eleni & Finn, Donal P., 2021. "Data-driven predictive control for unlocking building energy flexibility: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    16. Wenquan Jin & Israr Ullah & Shabir Ahmad & Dohyeun Kim, 2019. "Occupant Comfort Management Based on Energy Optimization Using an Environment Prediction Model in Smart Homes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, February.
    17. Jinrong Wu & Su Nguyen & Damminda Alahakoon & Daswin De Silva & Nishan Mills & Prabod Rathnayaka & Harsha Moraliyage & Andrew Jennings, 2024. "A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning-Based Energy Baseline Models across Multiple Building Types," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-18, March.
    18. Jing, Gang & Cai, Wenjian & Zhang, Xin & Cui, Can & Yin, Xiaohong & Xian, Huacai, 2019. "An energy-saving oriented air balancing strategy for multi-zone demand-controlled ventilation system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 1053-1065.
    19. Zhang, Chengyu & Ma, Liangdong & Luo, Zhiwen & Han, Xing & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Forecasting building plug load electricity consumption employing occupant-building interaction input features and bidirectional LSTM with improved swarm intelligent algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    20. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Zhao, Yang & Song, Mengjie & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "Deep learning-based feature engineering methods for improved building energy prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 35-45.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:2:p:358-:d:130115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.