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Prediction of Energy Consumption on Example of Heterogenic Commercial Buildings

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  • Kazimierz Kawa

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Automatics, Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
    Tauron Dystrybucja S.A., 31-060 Krakow, Poland)

  • Rafał Mularczyk

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Automatics, Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland)

  • Waldemar Bauer

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Automatics, Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland)

  • Katarzyna Grobler-Dębska

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Automatics, Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland)

  • Edyta Kucharska

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Automatics, Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland)

Abstract

The management of large enterprises influences their efficiency and profitability. One of the important aspects is the appropriate management of electricity consumption used for production and daily operation. The problem becomes more complicated when you need to manage not one but a large complex of buildings with heterogeneous purposes. In the paper, we examine real-time series data of electrical energy consumption in a complex of heterogeneous buildings, including offices and warehouses, using time series analysis methods such as the Holt–Winters model and ARIMA/SARIMA model, and neural networks (Deep Neural Network, Recurrent Neural Network, and Long Short-Term Memory). Experimental research was performed on a dataset obtained from an energy consumption meter placed in the building complex, built in different periods, and equipped with a variety of automation devices. The data were collected over a period of four years 2018–2021 in the form of time series. Results show that classic models are good at predicting energy consumption in the mentioned type of buildings. The ARIMA model gave the best results—for buildings characterized by seasonality and trends the forecasts were almost perfect with actual values.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazimierz Kawa & Rafał Mularczyk & Waldemar Bauer & Katarzyna Grobler-Dębska & Edyta Kucharska, 2024. "Prediction of Energy Consumption on Example of Heterogenic Commercial Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:13:p:3220-:d:1426334
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vesna Karadzic & Bojan Pejovic, 2021. "Inflation Forecasting in the Western Balkans and EU: A Comparison of Holt-Winters, ARIMA and NNAR Models," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 23(57), pages 517-517.
    2. DRITSAKIS, Nikolaos & KLAZOGLOU, Paraskevi, 2019. "Time Series Analysis using ARIMA Models: An Approach to Forecasting Health Expenditure in USA," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(1), pages 77-106.
    3. Amasyali, Kadir & El-Gohary, Nora M., 2018. "A review of data-driven building energy consumption prediction studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1192-1205.
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