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Computational Intelligence Techniques Applied to the Day Ahead PV Output Power Forecast: PHANN, SNO and Mixed

Author

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  • Emanuele Ogliari

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, 20156 Milano, Italy)

  • Alessandro Niccolai

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, 20156 Milano, Italy)

  • Sonia Leva

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, 20156 Milano, Italy)

  • Riccardo E. Zich

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, 20156 Milano, Italy)

Abstract

An accurate forecast of the exploitable energy from Renewable Energy Sources is extremely important for the stability issues of the electric grid and the reliability of the bidding markets. This paper presents a comparison among different forecasting methods of the photovoltaic output power introducing a new method that mixes some peculiarities of the others: the Physical Hybrid Artificial Neural Network and the five parameters model estimated by the Social Network Optimization. In particular, the day-ahead forecasts evaluated against real data measured for two years in an existing photovoltaic plant located in Milan, Italy, are compared by means both new and the most common error indicators. Results reported in this work show the best forecasting capability of the new “mixed method” which scored the best forecast skill and Enveloped Mean Absolute Error on a yearly basis (47% and 24.67%, respectively).

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Ogliari & Alessandro Niccolai & Sonia Leva & Riccardo E. Zich, 2018. "Computational Intelligence Techniques Applied to the Day Ahead PV Output Power Forecast: PHANN, SNO and Mixed," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:6:p:1487-:d:151141
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Niccolai & Alfredo Nespoli, 2020. "Sun Position Identification in Sky Images for Nowcasting Application," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Alessandro Niccolai & Alberto Dolara & Emanuele Ogliari, 2021. "Hybrid PV Power Forecasting Methods: A Comparison of Different Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    4. Limouni, Tariq & Yaagoubi, Reda & Bouziane, Khalid & Guissi, Khalid & Baali, El Houssain, 2023. "Accurate one step and multistep forecasting of very short-term PV power using LSTM-TCN model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1010-1024.
    5. Chao-Rong Chen & Faouzi Brice Ouedraogo & Yu-Ming Chang & Devita Ayu Larasati & Shih-Wei Tan, 2021. "Hour-Ahead Photovoltaic Output Forecasting Using Wavelet-ANFIS," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-14, October.
    6. Michal Pavlicko & Mária Vojteková & Oľga Blažeková, 2022. "Forecasting of Electrical Energy Consumption in Slovakia," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Jessica Wojtkiewicz & Matin Hosseini & Raju Gottumukkala & Terrence Lynn Chambers, 2019. "Hour-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Multivariate Gated Recurrent Units," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-13, October.
    8. Lilin Cheng & Haixiang Zang & Tao Ding & Rong Sun & Miaomiao Wang & Zhinong Wei & Guoqiang Sun, 2018. "Ensemble Recurrent Neural Network Based Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-23, July.
    9. Alessandro Niccolai & Francesco Grimaccia & Marco Mussetta & Riccardo Zich, 2019. "Optimal Task Allocation in Wireless Sensor Networks by Means of Social Network Optimization," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Nespoli, Alfredo & Niccolai, Alessandro & Ogliari, Emanuele & Perego, Giovanni & Collino, Elena & Ronzio, Dario, 2022. "Machine Learning techniques for solar irradiation nowcasting: Cloud type classification forecast through satellite data and imagery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).

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