IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i14p5231-d866386.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

PV Power Forecasting Based on Relevance Vector Machine with Sparrow Search Algorithm Considering Seasonal Distribution and Weather Type

Author

Listed:
  • Wentao Ma

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China
    Guangxi Wireless Broadband Communication and Signal Processing Key Laboratory, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China)

  • Lihong Qiu

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China)

  • Fengyuan Sun

    (Guangxi Wireless Broadband Communication and Signal Processing Key Laboratory, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China)

  • Sherif S. M. Ghoneim

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, College of Engineering, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia)

  • Jiandong Duan

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China)

Abstract

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is indispensable to enhancing the stability of the power grid and expanding the absorptive photoelectric capacity of the power grid. As an excellent nonlinear regression model, the relevance vector machine (RVM) can be employed to forecast PV power. However, the optimization of the free parameters is still a key problem for improving the performance of the RVM. Taking advantage of the strong global search capability, good stability, and fast convergence rate of the sparrow search algorithm (SSA), this paper optimizes the parameters of the RVM by using the SSA to develop an excellent RVM (called SSA-RVM). Consequently, a novel hybrid PV power forecasting model via the SSA-RVM is proposed to perform ultra-short-term (4 h ahead) prediction. In addition, the effects of seasonal distribution and weather type on PV power are fully considered, and different seasonal prediction models are established separately to improve the prediction capability. The benchmark is used to verify the accuracy of the SSA-RVM-based forecasting model under various conditions, and the experiment results demonstrate that the proposed SSA-RMV method outperforms the traditional RVM and support vector machine models, and it even shows a better prediction effect than the RVM models with other optimization approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Wentao Ma & Lihong Qiu & Fengyuan Sun & Sherif S. M. Ghoneim & Jiandong Duan, 2022. "PV Power Forecasting Based on Relevance Vector Machine with Sparrow Search Algorithm Considering Seasonal Distribution and Weather Type," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:14:p:5231-:d:866386
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/14/5231/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/14/5231/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhou, Yi & Zhou, Nanrun & Gong, Lihua & Jiang, Minlin, 2020. "Prediction of photovoltaic power output based on similar day analysis, genetic algorithm and extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    2. Yang Hu & Weiwei Lian & Yutong Han & Songyuan Dai & Honglu Zhu, 2018. "A Seasonal Model Using Optimized Multi-Layer Neural Networks to Forecast Power Output of PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda & Song, Jiakang, 2018. "Deep belief network based k-means cluster approach for short-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 840-852.
    4. Olabi, A.G. & Abdelkareem, Mohammad Ali, 2022. "Renewable energy and climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Fu, Wenlong & Fang, Ping & Wang, Kai & Li, Zhenxing & Xiong, Dongzhen & Zhang, Kai, 2021. "Multi-step ahead short-term wind speed forecasting approach coupling variational mode decomposition, improved beetle antennae search algorithm-based synchronous optimization and Volterra series model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1122-1139.
    6. Chen, Xiang & Ding, Kun & Zhang, Jingwei & Han, Wei & Liu, Yongjie & Yang, Zenan & Weng, Shuai, 2022. "Online prediction of ultra-short-term photovoltaic power using chaotic characteristic analysis, improved PSO and KELM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    7. Wen, Lulu & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Lu, Xinhui, 2019. "Optimal load dispatch of community microgrid with deep learning based solar power and load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1053-1065.
    8. Ding, Jia & Wang, Maolin & Ping, Zuowei & Fu, Dongfei & Vassiliadis, Vassilios S., 2020. "An integrated method based on relevance vector machine for short-term load forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 497-510.
    9. Si, Zhiyuan & Yang, Ming & Yu, Yixiao & Ding, Tingting, 2021. "Photovoltaic power forecast based on satellite images considering effects of solar position," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sabadus, Andreea & Blaga, Robert & Hategan, Sergiu-Mihai & Calinoiu, Delia & Paulescu, Eugenia & Mares, Oana & Boata, Remus & Stefu, Nicoleta & Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel, 2024. "A cross-sectional survey of deterministic PV power forecasting: Progress and limitations in current approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    2. Ahmad, Tanveer & Chen, Huanxin, 2019. "Deep learning for multi-scale smart energy forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 98-112.
    3. Lai, Wenzhe & Zhen, Zhao & Wang, Fei & Fu, Wenjie & Wang, Junlong & Zhang, Xudong & Ren, Hui, 2024. "Sub-region division based short-term regional distributed PV power forecasting method considering spatio-temporal correlations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    4. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Raj, Nawin & Mi, Jianchun, 2019. "Deep solar radiation forecasting with convolutional neural network and long short-term memory network algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Liu, Xiangjie & Liu, Yuanyan & Kong, Xiaobing & Ma, Lele & Besheer, Ahmad H. & Lee, Kwang Y., 2023. "Deep neural network for forecasting of photovoltaic power based on wavelet packet decomposition with similar day analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    6. Dong-Dong Yuan & Ming Li & Heng-Yi Li & Cheng-Jian Lin & Bing-Xiang Ji, 2022. "Wind Power Prediction Method: Support Vector Regression Optimized by Improved Jellyfish Search Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Kar, Sumi & Basu, Kajla & Sarkar, Biswajit, 2023. "Advertisement policy for dual-channel within emissions-controlled flexible production system," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Luigi Fortuna & Arturo Buscarino, 2022. "Sustainable Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-7, December.
    9. Yong-gang Zhang & Junbo Qiu & Yan Zhang & Yongyao Wei, 2021. "The adoption of ELM to the prediction of soil liquefaction based on CPT," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 539-549, May.
    10. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Antoine Boche & Clément Foucher & Luiz Fernando Lavado Villa, 2022. "Understanding Microgrid Sustainability: A Systemic and Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-29, April.
    12. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Xu, Chuanyu & Dai, Bozhi & Ma, Miaomiao & Su, Xin, 2023. "Power transfer characteristics in fluctuation partition algorithm for wind speed and its application to wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 582-594.
    13. Mahsa Dehghan Manshadi & Milad Mousavi & M. Soltani & Amir Mosavi & Levente Kovacs, 2022. "Deep Learning for Modeling an Offshore Hybrid Wind–Wave Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-16, December.
    14. Navid Shirzadi & Hadise Rasoulian & Fuzhan Nasiri & Ursula Eicker, 2022. "Resilience Enhancement of an Urban Microgrid during Off-Grid Mode Operation Using Critical Load Indicators," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-15, October.
    15. Hai, Tao & Hussein Kadir, Dler & Ghanbari, Afshin, 2023. "Modeling the emission characteristics of the hydrogen-enriched natural gas engines by multi-output least-squares support vector regression: Comprehensive statistical and operating analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    16. Kumarasamy Palanimuthu & Ganesh Mayilsamy & Ameerkhan Abdul Basheer & Seong-Ryong Lee & Dongran Song & Young Hoon Joo, 2022. "A Review of Recent Aerodynamic Power Extraction Challenges in Coordinated Pitch, Yaw, and Torque Control of Large-Scale Wind Turbine Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-27, November.
    17. Saima Akhtar & Sulman Shahzad & Asad Zaheer & Hafiz Sami Ullah & Heybet Kilic & Radomir Gono & Michał Jasiński & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2023. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Models: A Review of Challenges, Progress, and the Road Ahead," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-29, May.
    18. Ijaz Ul Haq & Amin Ullah & Samee Ullah Khan & Noman Khan & Mi Young Lee & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Sequential Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction Model for Residential and Commercial Sectors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, March.
    19. Shengli Liao & Xudong Tian & Benxi Liu & Tian Liu & Huaying Su & Binbin Zhou, 2022. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on LightGBM and Meteorological Reanalysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-21, August.
    20. Neethu Elizabeth Michael & Manohar Mishra & Shazia Hasan & Ahmed Al-Durra, 2022. "Short-Term Solar Power Predicting Model Based on Multi-Step CNN Stacked LSTM Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:14:p:5231-:d:866386. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.