IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v10y2017i2p248-d90787.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A New Model for Estimating the Diffuse Fraction of Solar Irradiance for Photovoltaic System Simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Hofmann

    (Valentin Software GmbH, Stralauer Platz 34, 10243 Berlin, Germany
    Leibniz Universität Hannover, Institute for Meteorology and Climatology, Herrenhäuser Straße 2, 30419 Hannover, Germany)

  • Gunther Seckmeyer

    (Leibniz Universität Hannover, Institute for Meteorology and Climatology, Herrenhäuser Straße 2, 30419 Hannover, Germany)

Abstract

We present a new model for the calculation of the diffuse fraction of the global solar irradiance for solar system simulations. The importance of an accurate estimation of the horizontal diffuse irradiance is highlighted by findings that an inaccurately calculated diffuse irradiance can lead to significant over- or underestimations in the annual energy yield of a photovoltaic (PV) system by as much as 8%. Our model utilizes a time series of global irradiance in one-minute resolution and geographical information as input. The model is validated by measurement data of 28 geographically and climatologically diverse locations worldwide with one year of one-minute data each, taken from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). We show that on average the mean absolute deviation of the modelled and the measured diffuse irradiance is reduced from about 12% to about 6% compared to three reference models. The maximum deviation is less than 20%. In more than 80% of the test cases, the deviation is smaller 10%. The root mean squared error ( RMSE ) of the calculated diffuse fractions is reduced by about 18%.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Hofmann & Gunther Seckmeyer, 2017. "A New Model for Estimating the Diffuse Fraction of Solar Irradiance for Photovoltaic System Simulations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:2:p:248-:d:90787
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/2/248/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/2/248/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Furlan, Claudia & de Oliveira, Amauri Pereira & Soares, Jacyra & Codato, Georgia & Escobedo, João Francisco, 2012. "The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 240-254.
    2. Wong, L. T. & Chow, W. K., 2001. "Solar radiation model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 191-224, July.
    3. Oliveira, Amauri P. & Escobedo, João F. & Machado, Antonio J. & Soares, Jacyra, 2002. "Correlation models of diffuse solar-radiation applied to the city of São Paulo, Brazil," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 59-73, January.
    4. Jacovides, C.P. & Tymvios, F.S. & Assimakopoulos, V.D. & Kaltsounides, N.A., 2006. "Comparative study of various correlations in estimating hourly diffuse fraction of global solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(15), pages 2492-2504.
    5. Ridley, Barbara & Boland, John & Lauret, Philippe, 2010. "Modelling of diffuse solar fraction with multiple predictors," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-483.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Estimating 1-min beam and diffuse irradiance from the global irradiance: A review and an extensive worldwide comparison of latest separation models at 126 stations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Starke, Allan R. & Lemos, Leonardo F.L. & Barni, Cristian M. & Machado, Rubinei D. & Cardemil, José M. & Boland, John & Colle, Sergio, 2021. "Assessing one-minute diffuse fraction models based on worldwide climate features," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 700-714.
    3. Stephan Schlüter & Fabian Menz & Milena Kojić & Petar Mitić & Aida Hanić, 2022. "A Novel Approach to Generate Hourly Photovoltaic Power Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Mosavi, Amir & Faghan, Yaser & Ghamisi, Pedram & Duan, Puhong & Ardabili, Sina Faizollahzadeh & Hassan, Salwana & Band, Shahab S., 2020. "Comprehensive Review of Deep Reinforcement Learning Methods and Applications in Economics," OSF Preprints jrc58, Center for Open Science.
    5. Riyad Mubarak & Eduardo Weide Luiz & Gunther Seckmeyer, 2019. "Why PV Modules Should Preferably No Longer Be Oriented to the South in the Near Future," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Riyad Mubarak & Martin Hofmann & Stefan Riechelmann & Gunther Seckmeyer, 2017. "Comparison of Modelled and Measured Tilted Solar Irradiance for Photovoltaic Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, October.
    7. Manni, Mattia & Jouttijärvi, Sami & Ranta, Samuli & Miettunen, Kati & Lobaccaro, Gabriele, 2024. "Validation of model chains for global tilted irradiance on East-West vertical bifacial photovoltaics at high latitudes," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    8. Martin Hofmann & Gunther Seckmeyer, 2017. "Influence of Various Irradiance Models and Their Combination on Simulation Results of Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-24, September.
    9. Catra Indra Cahyadi & Suwarno Suwarno & Aminah Asmara Dewi & Musri Kona & Muhammad Arif & Muhammad Caesar Akbar, 2023. "Solar Prediction Strategy for Managing Virtual Power Stations," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 503-512, July.
    10. Nunez Munoz, Maria & Ballantyne, Erica E.F. & Stone, David A., 2022. "Development and evaluation of empirical models for the estimation of hourly horizontal diffuse solar irradiance in the United Kingdom," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    11. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Akoush, Bassem M. & Abubakr, Mohamed & Campana, Pietro Elia & Khalil, Adel, 2021. "High-resolution estimates of diffuse fraction based on dynamic definitions of sky conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 641-659.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marques Filho, Edson P. & Oliveira, Amauri P. & Vita, Willian A. & Mesquita, Francisco L.L. & Codato, Georgia & Escobedo, João F. & Cassol, Mariana & França, José Ricardo A., 2016. "Global, diffuse and direct solar radiation at the surface in the city of Rio de Janeiro: Observational characterization and empirical modeling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 64-74.
    2. Jamil, Basharat & Akhtar, Naiem, 2017. "Comparison of empirical models to estimate monthly mean diffuse solar radiation from measured data: Case study for humid-subtropical climatic region of India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1326-1342.
    3. Furlan, Claudia & de Oliveira, Amauri Pereira & Soares, Jacyra & Codato, Georgia & Escobedo, João Francisco, 2012. "The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 240-254.
    4. Torres, J.L. & De Blas, M. & García, A. & de Francisco, A., 2010. "Comparative study of various models in estimating hourly diffuse solar irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1325-1332.
    5. Lin, Chun-Tin & Chang, Keh-Chin & Chung, Kung-Ming, 2023. "Re-modeling the solar diffuse fraction in Taiwan on basis of a typical-meteorological-year data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 823-835.
    6. Božnar, Marija Zlata & Grašič, Boštjan & Oliveira, Amauri Pereira de & Soares, Jacyra & Mlakar, Primož, 2017. "Spatially transferable regional model for half-hourly values of diffuse solar radiation for general sky conditions based on perceptron artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 794-810.
    7. Seyed Abbas Mousavi Maleki & H. Hizam & Chandima Gomes, 2017. "Estimation of Hourly, Daily and Monthly Global Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces: Models Re-Visited," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, January.
    8. Jamil, Basharat & Akhtar, Naiem, 2017. "Estimation of diffuse solar radiation in humid-subtropical climatic region of India: Comparison of diffuse fraction and diffusion coefficient models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 149-164.
    9. Jamil, Basharat & Akhtar, Naiem, 2017. "Comparative analysis of diffuse solar radiation models based on sky-clearness index and sunshine period for humid-subtropical climatic region of India: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 329-355.
    10. Madeleine McPherson & Theofilos Sotiropoulos-Michalakakos & LD Danny Harvey & Bryan Karney, 2017. "An Open-Access Web-Based Tool to Access Global, Hourly Wind and Solar PV Generation Time-Series Derived from the MERRA Reanalysis Dataset," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-14, July.
    11. Mondol, Jayanta Deb & Yohanis, Yigzaw G. & Norton, Brian, 2008. "Solar radiation modelling for the simulation of photovoltaic systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1109-1120.
    12. Khalil, Samy A. & Shaffie, A.M., 2016. "Evaluation of transposition models of solar irradiance over Egypt," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 105-119.
    13. Das, Aparna & Paul, Saikat Kumar, 2015. "Artificial illumination during daytime in residential buildings: Factors, energy implications and future predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 65-85.
    14. Farhadi, Rouhollah & Taki, Morteza, 2020. "The energy gain reduction due to shadow inside a flat-plate solar collector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 730-740.
    15. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
    16. Kuo, Chia-Wei & Chang, Wen-Chey & Chang, Keh-Chin, 2014. "Modeling the hourly solar diffuse fraction in Taiwan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 56-61.
    17. Sabzpooshani, Majid & Mohammadi, Kasra, 2014. "Establishing new empirical models for predicting monthly mean horizontal diffuse solar radiation in city of Isfahan, Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 571-577.
    18. Lou, Siwei & Li, Danny H.W. & Lam, Joseph C. & Chan, Wilco W.H., 2016. "Prediction of diffuse solar irradiance using machine learning and multivariable regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 367-374.
    19. Liu, Yujun & Yao, Ling & Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Liu, Tang & Zhou, Chenghu, 2022. "Spatial estimation of the optimum PV tilt angles in China by incorporating ground with satellite data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 1249-1258.
    20. Martin Hofmann & Gunther Seckmeyer, 2017. "Influence of Various Irradiance Models and Their Combination on Simulation Results of Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-24, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:2:p:248-:d:90787. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.