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Nonfractional Long-Range Dependence: Long Memory, Antipersistence, and Aggregation

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  • J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés

    (Department of Mathematical Sciences, Aalborg University, Skjernvej 4A, DK-9220 Aalborg, Denmark
    Center for Research in Econometric Analysis of Time Series (CREATES), Fuglesangs Allé 4, DK-8210 Aarhus, Denmark)

Abstract

This paper used cross-sectional aggregation as the inspiration for a model with long-range dependence that arises in actual data. One of the advantages of our model is that it is less brittle than fractionally integrated processes. In particular, we showed that the antipersistent phenomenon is not present for the cross-sectionally aggregated process. We proved that this has implications for estimators of long-range dependence in the frequency domain, which will be misspecified for nonfractional long-range-dependent processes with negative degrees of persistence. As an application, we showed how we can approximate a fractionally differenced process using theoretically-motivated cross-sectional aggregated long-range-dependent processes. An example with temperature data showed that our framework provides a better fit to the data than the fractional difference operator.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2021. "Nonfractional Long-Range Dependence: Long Memory, Antipersistence, and Aggregation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:9:y:2021:i:4:p:39-:d:660147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Haldrup, Niels & Vera Valdés, J. Eduardo, 2017. "Long memory, fractional integration, and cross-sectional aggregation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(1), pages 1-11.
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    8. Clifford M. Hurvich & Rohit Deo & Julia Brodsky, 1998. "The mean squared error of Geweke and Porter‐Hudak's estimator of the memory parameter of a long‐memory time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 19-46, January.
    9. Linden, Mikael, 1999. "Time series properties of aggregated AR(1) processes with uniformly distributed coefficients," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 31-36, July.
    10. J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2021. "Temperature Anomalies, Long Memory, and Aggregation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, March.
    11. Terence C. Mills, 2007. "Time series modelling of two millennia of northern hemisphere temperatures: long memory or shifting trends?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(1), pages 83-94, January.
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