Climate Change Impacts on Surface Runoff and Nutrient and Sediment Losses in Buchanan County, Iowa

Nonpoint source pollution from cultivated croplands has often been associated with downstream water quality impairment in various watersheds. Given projected changes in global climate patterns, this study contributes to the existing literature by elucidating the impacts of climate projections on edge-of-field surface runoff and sediment and nutrient losses. We apply a well-tested ecohydrological model, Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX), to continuous corn and corn–soybean fields in Buchanan County, Iowa, using climate scenarios developed from three well-known representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate projections: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. Our results indicate that there will be a moderate to substantial increase in surface runoff, sediment, and nutrient losses depending upon the reference point of comparison (baseline scenario) and upon which climate scenario actually materializes. However, regardless of which climate scenario materializes and regardless of the baseline for comparison, soluble nitrogen losses are bound to increase, the magnitude depending upon the climate scenario. We find also that nutrient losses will be higher from continuous corn fields than from corn–soybean fields, given the tillage practices implemented on corn versus soybeans in the study area. Similarly, we find that nutrient losses may be higher from fields that receive manure than fields that receive only inorganic fertilizer, though this latter finding may be predicated upon the specific nutrient application rates utilized.