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A Risk Assessment Method for Phosphorus Loss in Intensive Agricultural Areas—A Case Study in Henan Province, China

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  • Linlin Gao

    (College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

  • Yong Wu

    (College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

  • Ling Li

    (College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

  • Chi Sun

    (College of Civil Engineering, Zhengzhou University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450044, China)

  • Donghao Li

    (College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

  • Xueke Liu

    (College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

Abstract

Agricultural phosphorus (P) loss constitutes a significant factor in agricultural non-point source pollution (ANSP). Due to the widespread occurrence and complexity of ANSP, emphasis on risk prevention and control is preferable to retroactive treatment, to reduce costs. Effective risk identification is an issue that needs to be addressed urgently. Henan Province, a typical intensive agricultural region in China, was used as a case study to develop a straightforward and precise model for assessing the risk of P loss. Total phosphorus (TP) emission intensity at the county level in Henan Province was estimated based on planting, livestock and poultry breeding, and rural domestic activities. Subsequently, influential factors were selected to determine the extent of P loss in rivers. Finally, the model was validated using water quality data. The results indicate that (1) TP emission and rainfall are the primary contributors to the risk of P loss, whereas vegetation coverage has negligible effects. (2) The primary sources of TP emission, in descending order of magnitude, are livestock and poultry breeding, rural domestic activities, and planting. Livestock and poultry breeding represents the largest proportion at approximately 50%. (3) High-risk areas for P loss are concentrated in the plains of the central, eastern, and northern Henan Province, while low-risk areas are mainly located in the western mountainous and hilly regions. (4) The model exhibits high accuracy with a determination coefficient (R 2 ) of 0.81 when compared to surface water quality monitoring data. This study provides a new framework for assessing the risk of P loss in intensive agricultural settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Linlin Gao & Yong Wu & Ling Li & Chi Sun & Donghao Li & Xueke Liu, 2024. "A Risk Assessment Method for Phosphorus Loss in Intensive Agricultural Areas—A Case Study in Henan Province, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:14:y:2024:i:10:p:1681-:d:1486272
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ying Chen & Binbin Lu & Chongyu Xu & Xingwei Chen & Meibing Liu & Lu Gao & Haijun Deng, 2022. "Uncertainty Evaluation of Best Management Practice Effectiveness Based on the AnnAGNPS Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1307-1321, March.
    2. Li, Tianyang & Zhang, Yi & He, Binghui & Wu, Xiaoyu & Du, Yingni, 2022. "Nitrate loss by runoff in response to rainfall amount category and different combinations of fertilization and cultivation in sloping croplands," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
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