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Modelling the Geographical Distribution Pattern of Apple Trees on the Loess Plateau, China

Author

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  • Wei Xu

    (School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212000, China
    Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Yuqi Miao

    (College of Grassland Agriculture, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Shuaimeng Zhu

    (School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China)

  • Jimin Cheng

    (Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Xianyang 712100, China
    Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Jingwei Jin

    (Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Xianyang 712100, China)

Abstract

The Loess Plateau, known for its fragile ecosystems, is one of the traditional apple-producing regions in China. Although some management measures are needed to enhance sustainable agriculture in response to the rising pressure of climate change, the geographic distribution of apple trees considering multiple variables has not been considered. In this study, we used three software (the maximum entropy model, IDRISI, and ArcGIS) to simulate the potential distribution of suitable habitats and range shifts of apple trees in the near present and near future (i.e., the 2030s and the 2050s) under two climate scenarios (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)1-26 and SSP5-85), while taking a variety of environmental factors into account (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and terrain). After optimization, the class unsuitable habitat (CUH) changed the potential distribution pattern of apple trees on the Loess Plateau. Currently, the areas of lowly suitable habitat (LSH), moderately suitable habitat (MSH), highly suitable habitat (HSH), and CUH were 7.66 × 10 4 , 2.80 × 10 4 , 0.23 × 10 4 , and 18.05 × 10 4 km 2 , respectively. Compared to the centroid estimated under the climate of 1970–2000, the suitability range of apple trees was displaced to the northwest in both the 2030s and the 2050s in SSP5-85 (i.e., 63.88~81.30 km), causing a larger displacement in distance than SSP1-26 (i.e., 40.05~50.32 km). This study demonstrates the possible changes in the spatial distribution of apple trees on the Loess Plateau in the near future and may provide a strong basis for future policy making.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Xu & Yuqi Miao & Shuaimeng Zhu & Jimin Cheng & Jingwei Jin, 2023. "Modelling the Geographical Distribution Pattern of Apple Trees on the Loess Plateau, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:13:y:2023:i:2:p:291-:d:1046739
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Quanzhong Zhang & Haiyan Wei & Zefang Zhao & Jing Liu & Qiao Ran & Junhong Yu & Wei Gu, 2018. "Optimization of the Fuzzy Matter Element Method for Predicting Species Suitability Distribution Based on Environmental Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Siqin Tong & Gang Bao & Ah Rong & Xiaojun Huang & Yongbin Bao & Yuhai Bao, 2020. "Comparison of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Land Use Changes in Four Municipalities of China Based on Intensity Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Halvorsen, Rune & Mazzoni, Sabrina & Dirksen, John Wirkola & Næsset, Erik & Gobakken, Terje & Ohlson, Mikael, 2016. "How important are choice of model selection method and spatial autocorrelation of presence data for distribution modelling by MaxEnt?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 328(C), pages 108-118.
    4. Hongfei Zhao & Hongming He & Jingjing Wang & Chunyu Bai & Chuangjuan Zhang, 2018. "Vegetation Restoration and Its Environmental Effects on the Loess Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lu, Yongquan & Liu, Guilin & Xian, Yuyang & Tang, Jiaqi & Zhong, Liming, 2024. "Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges to rural revitalization in China: Evidence from apple geographical indication predictions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Dengpan Xiao & Wenjiao Shi, 2023. "Modeling the Adaptation of Agricultural Production to Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-4, February.

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