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Dynamic Price Relationships in the Grain and Cattle Markets, Pre and Post-Ethanol Mandate

Author

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  • Tejeda, Hernan A.
  • Goodwin, Barry K.

Abstract

This paper determines the dynamic interaction between prices of corn, soybean, grain sorghum (milo), wheat, feeder cattle and live (fed) cattle by taking into account the surge in corn consumption stemming from the boost of mandated ethanol production. Corn is a major carbohydrate-feed component of livestock, with grain sorghum and wheat serving as close substitutes. Moreover, soybean is an important protein-feed component. Being non-stationary data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model (Sims, 1980) that includes an ‘error correction’ term is applied to the series; likewise known as a vector error correction (VEC) model (Engel and Granger, 1987 and Johansen, 1989). Two separate periods are estimated. The first considers prices prior to recent ethanol mandates. The second includes increased corn consumption from ethanol production, mandated by Energy Policy Acts of 2005 and 2007. Results are consistent with past literature regarding feeder and live cattle prices, among others. More importantly, we find support for the notion of modified feed rations in feedlot operations, given the increased corn prices following the post-ethanol mandated period. The finding is corroborated by two different methods, one via Granger Causality and other via impulse response functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Tejeda, Hernan A. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2011. "Dynamic Price Relationships in the Grain and Cattle Markets, Pre and Post-Ethanol Mandate," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103825, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103825
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.103825
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. da Silveira, Rodrigo Lanna F. & Mattos, Fabio L., 2015. "Price And Volatility Transmission In Livestock And Grain Markets: Examining The Effect Of Increasing Ethanol Production Across Countries," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205684, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Hao, Na & Colson, Gregory & Seong, Byeongchan & Park, Cheolwoo & Wetzstein, Michael, 2015. "Drought, ethanol, and livestock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 301-307.
    3. Faruk Urak & Abdulbaki Bilgic & Gürkan Bozma & Wojciech J. Florkowski & Erkan Efekan, 2022. "Volatility in Live Calf, Live Sheep, and Feed Wheat Return Markets: A Threat to Food Price Stability in Turkey," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, April.
    4. Tejeda, Hernan A., 2012. "Time-Varying Price Interactions and Risk Management in Livestock Feed Markets – Determining the Ethanol Surge Effect," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124956, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Koirala, Krishna H. & Mishra, Ashok K. & D'Antoni, Jeremy M. & Mehlhorn, Joey E., 2015. "Energy prices and agricultural commodity prices: Testing correlation using copulas method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 430-436.
    6. Johnson, Matthew & Yu, T. Edward & Griffith, Andrew P. & Jensen, Kimberly L. & Cho, Seong-Hoon, 2015. "Regional Dynamic Price Relationships between Distillers Dried Grains and Feed Grains," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196900, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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