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Selling prices and profits: what survey data tell about firms' rationality

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  • Tobias F. Rötheli

    (Department of Economics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland)

Abstract

This paper states that the strong biases found in survey expectations do not necessarily distort economic decisions. An econometric analysis of price and profit data suggests that Swiss manufacturers do not base their production decisions on the forecasts they supply to the surveying institution. Instead, production decisions are based on data of past prices. This suggests that in their production management, firms make adjustments for biased marketing projections of selling prices. However, the practice of these adjustments is not optimal since it neglects the valuable information contained in these price forecasts. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias F. Rötheli, 1999. "Selling prices and profits: what survey data tell about firms' rationality," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 319-325.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:20:y:1999:i:6:p:319-325
    DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1468(199909)20:6<319::AID-MDE947>3.0.CO;2-Z
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    1. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    2. Roy H. Webb, 1987. "The irrelevance of tests for bias in series of macroeconomic forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 73(Nov), pages 3-9.
    3. Bonham, Carl & Cohen, Richard, 1995. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 284-289, March.
    4. Jeong, Jinook & Maddala, G S, 1991. "Measurement Errors and Tests for Rationality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 431-439, October.
    5. Lee, Kevin C, 1994. "Formation of Price and Cost Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries: A Multi-Sectoral Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 372-385, March.
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