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New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis

Author

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  • V. V. Chari
  • Patrick J. Kehoe
  • Ellen R. McGrattan

Abstract

Macroeconomists have largely converged on method, model design, reduced-form shocks, and principles of policy advice. Our main disagreements today are about implementing the methodology. Some think New Keynesian models are ready to be used for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice; we do not. Focusing on the state-of-the-art version of these models, we argue that some of its shocks and other features are not structural or consistent with microeconomic evidence. Since an accurate structural model is essential to reliably evaluate the effects of policies, we conclude that New Keynesian models are not yet useful for policy analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, . "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:409
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Dhyne & Jerzy Konieczny & Fabio Rumler & Patrick Sevestre, 2009. "Price rigidity in the euro area - An assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 380, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Martín-Moreno, José M. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2016. "Exploring the sources of Spanish macroeconomic fluctuations: An estimation of a small open economy DSGE model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 417-437.
    3. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Ratto, Marco, 2019. "Identification versus misspecification in New Keynesian monetary policy models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 225-246.
    4. Hillinger, Claude & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2008. "The Quantity Theory of Money is Valid. The New Keynesians are Wrong!," Discussion Papers in Economics 6987, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    5. Tobias Cwik & Volker Wieland, 2011. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(67), pages 493-549, July.
    6. Francesco Sergi, 2018. "DSGE Models and the Lucas Critique. A Historical Appraisal," Working Papers 20181806, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    7. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J. & McGrattan, Ellen R., 2008. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1337-1352, November.
    8. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "The 'Puzzles' methodology: En route to Indirect Inference?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1417-1428, November.
    9. Uluc Aysun & Ryan Brady & Adam Honig, 2009. "Financial Frictions and Monetary Transmission Strength: A Cross-Country Analysis," Working papers 2009-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2010.
    10. Gianluca Moretti & Giulio Nicoletti, 2010. "Estimating DSGE models with unknown data persistence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 750, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Mikhail Dmitriev & Manoj Atolia, 2021. "Testing for Spurious Dynamics in Structural Models with Applications to Monetary Policy," Working Papers wp2021_10_01, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
    12. Ali YOUSEFI & Sadegh KHALILIAN & Mohammad Hadi HAJIAN, 2010. "The Role of Water Sector in Iranian Economy: A CGE Modeling Approach," EcoMod2010 259600173, EcoMod.
    13. Paul Levine, 2012. "Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.
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    15. Filippo Ferroni & Stefano Grassi & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2015. "Fundamental shock selection in DSGE models," Studies in Economics 1508, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    16. Pierre-Yves Cabannes & Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Caroline Klein & Guy Lalanne & Olivier Monso & Erwan Pouliquen & Olivier Simon, 2012. "Survol de Mésange : un modèle macroéconomique à l'usage du praticien," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 451(1), pages 179-216.
    17. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    18. Martín-Moreno, José M. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2014. "A real business cycle model with tradable and non-tradable goods for the Spanish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 204-212.
    19. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:26:y:2011:i:67:p:493-549 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    21. Santiago J. Gangotena, 2017. "Dynamic coordinating non-equilibrium," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 51-82, March.
    22. Frank Smets & Kai Christoffel & Günter Coenen & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "DSGE models and their use at the ECB," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 51-65, March.
    23. Dilip Nachane, 2017. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Modelling :Theory And Practice," Working Papers id:11699, eSocialSciences.

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