IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedbne/y2000imayp3-33.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rising tide in the labor market: to what degree do expansions benefit the disadvantaged?

Author

Listed:
  • Katharine L. Bradbury

Abstract

The current U.S. economic expansion is unusually long and strong. Has it served as a \"rising tide\" to float all boats in the labor market benefiting everyone? To what degree are groups that are typically disadvantaged in the labor market-blacks, women, teens, the less educated-participating in the current prosperity? To investigate the effects of economic expansion (or recession) on various labor market groups, this article presents data that describe the patterns of labor force status by race, sex, education, and age (teens) during recent decades. ; The author finds that while virtually all groups are seeing improvements in labor market outcomes in the current expansion, the gaps between disadvantaged groups and the rest of the economy are shrinking more in some cases than in others. Moreover, even the strong and long expansion of the 1990s has not reduced the gaps to zero. She finds that the analogy with the tide breaks down when one asks whether a strong economy raises all boats to the same level; disadvantaged groups still have above-average unemployment (and black men have below-average employment rates) in the best of times. The ongoing problem is that the status of being left out or slower-gaining remains disproportionately concentrated among blacks and teens, where the gaps remain sizable.

Suggested Citation

  • Katharine L. Bradbury, 2000. "Rising tide in the labor market: to what degree do expansions benefit the disadvantaged?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 3-33.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:2000:i:may:p:3-33
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/neer/neer2000/neer300a.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/neer/neer2000/neer300a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1999. "The High-Pressure U.S. Labor Market of the 1990s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 1-88.
    2. repec:bla:econom:v:53:y:1986:i:210(s):p:s121-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Note: For best results & the figures should be printed on a non-Postscript printer. Hoynes & H., "undated". "The Employment, Earnings, and Income of Less-Skilled Workers over the Business Cycle," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1199-99, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    6. David M. Cutler & Lawrence F. Katz, 1991. "Macroeconomic Performance and the Disadvantaged," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 1-74.
    7. David R. Howell, 2002. "Increasing Earnings Inequality and Unemployment in Developed Countries: Markets, Institutions and the "Unified Theory"," SCEPA working paper series. 2002-01, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    8. Harry J. Holzer, 1994. "Black employment problems: New evidence, old questions," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 699-722.
    9. R. Haveman & Schwabish J., "undated". "Macroeconomic Performance and the Poverty Rate: A Return to Normalcy?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1187-99, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    10. Robert G. Valletta, 1999. "Recent research on job stability and security," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul23.
    11. Leslie S. Stratton, 1993. "Racial Differences in Men's Unemployment," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(3), pages 451-463, April.
    12. Fairlie, Robert W & Sundstrom, William A, 1997. "The Racial Unemployment Gap in Long-Run Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 306-310, May.
    13. Chinhui Juhn & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 1991. "Why Has the Natural Rate of Unemployment Increased over Time?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 75-142.
    14. Mortensen, Dale T, 1970. "Job Search, the Duration of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(5), pages 847-862, December.
    15. Willem Thorbecke, 1999. "Further Evidence on the Distributional Effects of Disinflationary Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 9904001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Richard B. Freeman, 1973. "Changes in the Labor Market for Black Americans, 1948-72," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 67-132.
    17. Arthur M. Okun, 1973. "Upward Mobility in a High-Pressure Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 207-262.
    18. William Poole & Howard J. Wall, 2000. "Price stability and the rising tide: how low inflation lifts all ships," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 4-9.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kalee Burns & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2023. "The Role of Social Costs in Response to Labor Market Opportunities: Differences across Race," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Kenneth A. Couch & Robert Fairlie & Huanan Xu, 2018. "Racial Differences in Labor Market Transitions and the Great Recession," Research in Labor Economics, in: Transitions through the Labor Market, volume 46, pages 1-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Kenneth Couch & Robert Fairlie, 2010. "Last hired, first fired? black-white unemployment and the business cycle," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(1), pages 227-247, February.
    4. Armagan Gezici & Ozge Ozay, 2020. "An Intersectional Analysis of COVID-19 Unemployment," Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 270-281, December.
    5. Stephanie R. Aaronson & Mary C. Daly & William L. Wascher & David W. Wilcox, 2019. "Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 333-404.
    6. Matias Fontenla & Fidel Gonzalez & Troy Quast, 2009. "Are Recessions Good for Everyone's Health? The Association Between Mortality and the Business Cycle by Race in the U.S," Working Papers 0902, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    7. Tomaz Cajner & John Coglianese & Joshua Montes, 2021. "The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore, 2022. "Some Like it Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 193-243, June.
    9. Xu, Xin, 2013. "The business cycle and health behaviors," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 126-136.
    10. Riccardo DiCecio & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2008. "Changing trends in the labor force: a survey," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jan), pages 47-62.
    11. Wido Geis, 2010. "High Unemployment in Germany: Why do Foreigners Suffer Most?," ifo Working Paper Series 90, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    12. Kalee Burns & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2019. "Migration Constraints and Disparate Responses to Changing Job Opportunities," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2019-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. repec:fip:a00001:88147 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yolanda Kodrzycki, 2000. "Discouraged and other marginally attached workers: evidence on their role in the labor market," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 35-40.
    2. Lawrence F Katz, 1998. "Reflections on US Labour Market Performance," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Ferit KULA & Alper ASLAN, 2014. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Turkey: Does Education Matter?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 35-39.
    4. Magnus Gustavsson & Pär Österholm, 2007. "Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 159-173, June.
    5. James R. Hines & Hilary Hoynes & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Another Look at Whether a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats," Working Papers 833, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    6. Wasmer, Etienne, 1998. "Labor Supply Dynamics, Unemployment and Human Capital Investments," Seminar Papers 651, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    7. Ángel L. Martín‐Román & Jaime Cuéllar‐Martín & Alfonso Moral, 2023. "Natural and cyclical unemployment: A stochastic frontier decomposition and economic policy implications," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 5-39, January.
    8. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Reginald Covington & Asia Sikora Kessler, 2016. "Labor Market Conditions At School-Leaving: Long-Run Effects On Marriage And Fertility," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 63-88, January.
    9. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    10. Donald Freeman, 2012. "On (Not) Closing the Gaps: The Evolution of National and Regional Unemployment Rates by Race and Ethnicity," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 267-284, June.
    11. Sohei Kaihatsu & Maiko Koga & Tomoya Sakata & Naoko Hara, 2019. "Interaction between Business Cycles and Economic Growth," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 37, pages 99-126, November.
    12. Kenneth A. Couch & Robert Fairlie & Huanan Xu, 2018. "Racial Differences in Labor Market Transitions and the Great Recession," Research in Labor Economics, in: Transitions through the Labor Market, volume 46, pages 1-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    13. Váry, Miklós, 2018. "A hiszterézis közgazdasági jelentőségéről posztkeynesi szemléletben [The economic relevance of hysteresis from a post-Keynesian perspective]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1006-1047.
    14. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    15. Jonathan P. Thomas, 2000. "Fair pay and a Wagebill Argument for Wage Rigidity and Excessive Employment Variability," Labor and Demography 0004004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Laurence Ball & Joern Onken, 2022. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD estimates of the natural rate," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 268-284, December.
    17. Dave Reifschneider & William Wascher & David Wilcox, 2015. "Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 71-109, May.
    18. Janet L. Yellen, 2016. "Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis : a speech at \"The Elusive 'Great' Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics\" 60th annual economic conference sponsored b," Speech 915, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Anneleen Vandeplas & Anna Thum-Thysen, 2019. "Skills Mismatch and Productivity in the EU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 100, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    20. Bianchi, Marco & Zoega, Gylfi, 1997. "Challenges facing natural rate theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 535-547, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:2000:i:may:p:3-33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Spozio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbbous.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.