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Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis?

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  • Gustavsson, Magnus

    (Department of Economics)

  • Österholm, Pär

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper investigates if conclusions regarding labour market hysteresis differ depending on whether employment or unemployment rates are studied. Applying a range of unit-root tests to monthly data from Australia, Austria, Canada, Finland, Sweden, the U.K. and the U.S., we find results for employment rates that contrast those based on unemployment rates. In particular, rather than the mixed evidence for hysteresis found using unemployment rates, employment rates result in unequivocal evidence of hysteresis in Australia, Canada and the U.S.. These findings cast doubt on previous conclusions in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2006. "Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis?," Working Paper Series 2006:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2006_015
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    Cited by:

    1. Sibel Cengiz & Afsin Sahin, 2014. "Modelling nonlinear behavior of labor force participation rate by STAR: An application for Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 113-127, April.
    2. Magnus Gustavsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 779-792, June.
    3. Kula Ferit & Aslan Alper, 2010. "Hysteresis vs. Natural Rate of Unemployment: One, the Other, or Both?," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 5(1), pages 91-94, April.
    4. Ferit KULA & Alper ASLAN, 2014. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Turkey: Does Education Matter?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 35-39.
    5. Hassler Uwe & Wolters Jürgen, 2009. "Hysteresis in Unemployment Rates? A Comparison between Germany and the US," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 119-129, April.
    6. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Mehmet Balcilar & Aysit Tansel, 2013. "International Labour Force Participation Rates By Gender: Unit Root Or Structural Breaks?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 142-164, May.
    7. Yavuz, Nilgün Çil & Yilanci, Veli, 2012. "Testing For Nonlinearity In G7 Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 69-79, September.
    8. Gustavsson, Magnus & Osterholm, Par, 2006. "The informational value of unemployment statistics: A note on the time series properties of participation rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 428-433, September.
    9. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Mehmet Balcilar & Aysit Tansel, 2013. "International Labour Force Participation Rates By Gender: Unit Root Or Structural Breaks?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 142-164, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour market; Persistence; Unit root test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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