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U.S economic performance: good fortune, bubble, or new era?

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  • Lynn E. Browne

Abstract

What accounts for the extraordinary performance of the U.S. economy in recent years? How is that we have been able to enjoy such strong economic growth and resulting low unemployment rates without an upturn in inflation? The author reviews the primary explanations offered for these unusually favorable circumstances - that the U.S. economy has been the beneficiary of temporary factors that have held down the inflation rate or that the U.S. economy has entered a new era of intensified competition and rising productivity growth in which inflation is less of a threat. She also discusses arguments that the U.S. economy may be experiencing an asset price bubble, noting that while rising stock prices cannot explain low inflation, decreases in inflation may have contributed to rising stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Lynn E. Browne, 1999. "U.S economic performance: good fortune, bubble, or new era?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 3-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1999:i:may:p:3-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bae, Jinho & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "Earnings growth and the bull market of the 1990s: Is there a case for rational exuberance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 690-707, December.
    2. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Are share prices still too high?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 223-232, September.
    3. McMillan, David G., 2007. "Bubbles in the dividend-price ratio? Evidence from an asymmetric exponential smooth-transition model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 787-804, March.
    4. Alexandre Ziegler, 2001. "Dividend Growth Uncertainty and Stock Prices," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 137(IV), pages 579-598, December.
    5. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2002. "Low-Frequency Movements in Stock Prices: A State-Space Decomposition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 649-667, November.
    6. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Level‐shifts and non‐linearity in US financial ratios," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(2), pages 189-207, May.
    7. Phillip Anthony O'Hara, 2003. "Deep Recession and Financial Instability or a New Long Wave of Economic Growth for U.S. Capitalism? A Regulation School Approach," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 18-43, March.
    8. Hester,D.D., 2003. "U.S. monetary policy in the Greenspan era: 1987-2003," Working papers 23, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

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