IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mil/wpdepa/2011-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Identification through heteroskedasticity: a likelihood-based approach

Author

Listed:
  • Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI

Abstract

In this paper we show how the analysis of identification of simultaneous equations systems with different volatility regimes can be addressed in a conventional likelihood-based setup, generalizing previous works in different directions. We discuss general conditions for identification and one of the results shows that an adequate number of different levels of heteroskedasticity is sufficient to identify the parameters of the structural form without the inclusion of any kind of restriction. A FullInformation Maximum Likelihood (FIML) algorithm is discussed and the small sample performances of estimators and tests on the parameters are studied through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, this methodology is used to investigate the relationships between sovereign bond yields for some highly indebted EU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2011. "Identification through heteroskedasticity: a likelihood-based approach," Departmental Working Papers 2011-19, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  • Handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2011-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wp.demm.unimi.it/files/wp/2011/DEMM-2011_019wp.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Demetriades, Panicos O., 2005. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-53, February.
    2. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2008. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks via Changes in Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1131-1149, September.
    3. Rigobon, Roberto, 2002. "The curse of non-investment grade countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 423-449, December.
    4. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Marta Bevilacqua, 2009. "International crises, instability periods and contagion: the case of the ERM," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 56(2), pages 105-122, June.
    5. Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-591, May.
    6. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    7. Normandin, Michel & Phaneuf, Louis, 2004. "Monetary policy shocks:: Testing identification conditions under time-varying conditional volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1217-1243, September.
    8. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2010. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 121-131, February.
    10. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    11. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions With Nonnormal Residuals," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 159-168.
    12. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    13. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June.
    14. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
    15. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, April.
    16. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-720, May.
    17. Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
    18. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1998. "Graphical Methods for Investigating the Size and Power of Hypothesis Tests," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(1), pages 1-26, January.
    19. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2005. "Testing for contagion: a conditional correlation analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 476-489, June.
    20. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    21. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emanuele Bacchiocchi, 2017. "On the Identification of Interdependence and Contagion of Financial Crises," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 1148-1175, December.
    2. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI & Luca FANELLI, 2012. "Identification in structural vector autoregressive models with structural changes," Departmental Working Papers 2012-16, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    3. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2010. "Identification through heteroskedasticity in a likelihood-based approach: some theoretical results," Departmental Working Papers 2010-38, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    4. Kohonen, Anssi, 2013. "On detection of volatility spillovers in overlapping stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 140-158.
    5. Kohonen, Anssi, 2014. "Transmission of government default risk in the eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 71-85.
    6. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A comparison of different volatility models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-009 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anton Velinov, 2016. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Checking Identifying Long-Run Restrictions Via Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 377-392, April.
    9. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A review of different volatility models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 2-18.
    10. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-015 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
    12. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-031 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Roberto Rigobon & Dani Rodrik, 2004. "Rule of Law, Democracy, Openness, and Income: Estimating the Interrelationships," NBER Working Papers 10750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Weber, Enzo, 2007. "Volatility and causality in Asia Pacific financial markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-004, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    16. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2022. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 328-341, January.
    17. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netésunajev, Aleksei, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressions with smooth transition in variances: The interaction between US monetary policy and the stock market," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-031, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    18. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Milunovich, George, 2016. "Testing for identification in SVAR-GARCH models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 241-258.
    19. Lee, Ha Yan & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Rigobon, Roberto, 2004. "Once again, is openness good for growth?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 451-472, December.
    20. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2011. "Identification in structural VAR models with different volatility regimes," Departmental Working Papers 2011-39, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    21. Helmut Lütkepohl & Thore Schlaak, 2018. "Choosing Between Different Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(4), pages 715-735, August.
    22. Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander & Maxand, Simone, 2019. "Statistical identification in SVARs - Monte Carlo experiments and a comparative assessment of the role of economic uncertainties for the US business cycle," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 375, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    23. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan & Yang, Minxian, 2015. "Endogenous crisis dating and contagion using smooth transition structural GARCH," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 71-79.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Simultaneous equations model; Heteroskedasticity; Identification; FIML; Contagion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2011-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEMM Working Papers (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/damilit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.