IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ers/journl/vxxiiiy2020i3p3-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial Assets, Expected Return and Risk, Speculation, Uncertainty, and Exchange Rate Determination

Author

Listed:
  • Ioannis N. Kallianiotis
  • Karen Bianchi
  • Augustine C. Arize
  • John Malindretos
  • Ikechukwu Ndu

Abstract

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to determine the movements (long-term trend) of the exchange rate by forecasting the rate of return and risk (return to variability ratio, RVR) that financial assets have in two economies and for four different investments. Design/Methodology/Approach: Risk averse speculators will try to maximize their return and minimize their risk by investing domestically or abroad, but these capital flows will affect the value of the two currencies (their exchange rate). Findings: The empirical results show that before 2001 the return in the U.S. was high and the dollar was appreciated; after 2001, the same return became negative and the dollar was depreciated, but after 2004 the returns have growing positively for the U.S., and the returns for the Euro-zone are falling. Practical Implications: We can say that the dollar may appreciate with respect to euro, except if we will have any other domestic or external shocks on the two economies. Still the results of this analysis are not very conclusive. Originality/value: International investors are investing in countries with higher return and lower risk. This increase in demand for these assets, increases the demand for currency in that country and its currency is appreciated.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioannis N. Kallianiotis & Karen Bianchi & Augustine C. Arize & John Malindretos & Ikechukwu Ndu, 2020. "Financial Assets, Expected Return and Risk, Speculation, Uncertainty, and Exchange Rate Determination," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-30.
  • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxiii:y:2020:i:3:p:3-30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ersj.eu/journal/1622/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1983. "A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mish83-1.
    3. E. Thalassinos, 2007. "Trade Regionalization, Exchange Rate Policies and EU-US Economic Cooperation," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 111-118.
    4. Augustine C. Arize & Ioannis N. Kallianiotis & Ebere Ume Kalu & John Malindretos & Moschos Scoullis, 2017. "A Multitude of Econometric Tests: Forecasting the Dutsch Guilder," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 94-101, September.
    5. Thomas Klitgaard & Laura Weir, 2004. "Exchange rate changes and net positions of speculators in the futures market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 17-28.
    6. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    7. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    9. Michael R. Pakko, 2004. "Considering the capital account," International Economic Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov.
    10. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2002. "Predicting exchange rate volatility: genetic programming versus GARCH and RiskMetrics," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(May), pages 43-54.
    11. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    12. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Cédric Tille, 2005. "The income implications of rising U.S. international liabilities," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Dec).
    13. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    14. Woo, Wing Thye, 1987. "Some Evidence of Speculative Bubbles in the Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(4), pages 499-514, November.
    15. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    16. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1998. "Which Capitalism? Lessons Form The East Asian Crisis," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 11(3), pages 40-48, September.
    17. Augustine C. Arize & Ioannis N. Kallianiotis & John Malindretos & Alex Panayides & Demetri Tsanacas, 2018. "A Comparison of the Current Account and the Monetary Theories of Exchange Rate Determination," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 102-107, February.
    18. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1983. "Introduction to "A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models"," NBER Chapters, in: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Vijay Singal, 1999. "Floating Currencies, Capital Controls, Or Currency Boards: What'S The Best Remedy For The Currency Crises?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 11(4), pages 49-56, January.
    21. Neely, Christopher J., 1999. "Target zones and conditional volatility: The role of realignments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 177-192, April.
    22. Richard T. Baillie & Tim Bollerslev, 1991. "Intra-Day and Inter-Market Volatility in Foreign Exchange Rates," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 565-585.
    23. Augustine C. Arize & Charles J. Berendt & Giuliana Campanelli Andreopoulos & Ioannis N. Kallianiotis & John Malindretos, 2017. "Foreign Currency Prognostication: Diverse Tests for Germany," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(3), pages 111-120, July.
    24. El. Thalassinos & Th. Kiriazidis, 2003. "Degrees Of Integration In International Portfolio Diversification: Effective Systemic Risk," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 119-130, January -.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sri Indah Nikensari & NFD Puspitasari & Amin Pujiati, 2020. "Demand and Strategy of Imports in Declining Foreign Exchange Reserves," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 96-110.
    2. Esra Atabay & Engin Boztepe, 2020. "The Effect of Gender Mainstreaming on Income of Turkish Independent Audit Organizations within the Scope of Sustainable Development," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 111-127.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dr. Ioannis N. Kallianiotis & Dr. Dean Frear, 2006. "Assets Return and Risk and Exchange Rate Trends: An Ex Post Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 15-34.
    2. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fatum, Rasmus & Scholnick, Barry, 2003. "Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4cc3291n, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
    5. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2001. "Predicting exchange rate volatility: genetic programming vs. GARCH and RiskMetrics," Working Papers 2001-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 529, European Central Bank.
    7. Atoi, Ngozi Victor & Nwambeke, Chinedu G., 2021. "Money and Foreign Exchange Markets Dynamics in Nigeria: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 109305, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Mean and variance causality between the Cyprus Stock Exchange and major equity markets," Working Papers 0501, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    9. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    10. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    11. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Leung, Henry & Schiereck, Dirk & Schroeder, Florian, 2017. "Volatility spillovers and determinants of contagion: Exchange rate and equity markets during crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 169-180.
    14. Otavio De Medeiros, 2005. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Brazil," Finance 0503019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December.
    16. Pavlidis Efthymios G & Paya Ivan & Peel David A, 2010. "Specifying Smooth Transition Regression Models in the Presence of Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-40, May.
    17. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2019. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: A bootstrap panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 209-224.
    18. Esteban Jadresic & Jorge Selaive, 2005. "Is The FX Derivatives Market Effective and Efficient in Reducing Currency Risk?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 325, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Chen, An-Sing & Leung, Mark T., 1998. "Stochastic properties and predictability of intraday Taiwan exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 207-220.
    20. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estimation; time-series models; foreign exchange; portfolio choice.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxiii:y:2020:i:3:p:3-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marios Agiomavritis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ersj.eu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.