IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ere/journl/vxxxviiiy2019i1p87-134.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacto económico de alternativas de inversión para el sistema de pensiones en México. (Economic impact assessment of alternative investment scenarios for pension funds in Mexico)

Author

Listed:
  • Lillian Marlen Centeno Cruz

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía. México.)

  • Pilar Campoy Muñoz

    (Universidad Loyola Andalucía. España.)

  • Gerardo Ángeles Castro

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía. México.)

Abstract

Actualmente, el sistema de pensiones en México, basado en la Ley del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social de 1997, no cumple con la tasa de cobertura prevista, lo que provoca el empobrecimiento de la población retirada. Se espera que esta situación empeore debido a que los trabajadores no pueden contribuir lo suficiente a sus propias cuentas de ahorro dentro del sistema actual. La presente investigación contribuye al debate sobre las reformas del sistema de pensiones a través de la evaluación de escenarios alternativos para la inversión de fondos de pensiones. Estos escenarios son generados mediante el análisis estructural de la economía mexicana, tomando como base la Matriz de Contabilidad Social (MCS) denominada SAMMEX-12. A continuación, se emplea un modelo lineal MCS para llevar a cabo una evaluación de impacto económico, lo que permite evaluar dichas escenarios en términos de producción, PIB y empleo.

Suggested Citation

  • Lillian Marlen Centeno Cruz & Pilar Campoy Muñoz & Gerardo Ángeles Castro, 2019. "Impacto económico de alternativas de inversión para el sistema de pensiones en México. (Economic impact assessment of alternative investment scenarios for pension funds in Mexico)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 87-134, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxviii:y:2019:i:1:p:87-134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economia.uanl.mx/revistaensayos/xxxviii/1/4_Centeno_Pensiones_FF.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meibner, Matthias, 2010. "La protección social en la vejez: su importancia en el marco de la cooperación para el desarrollo," Libros de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 2571.
    2. Humberto Godínez‐Olivares & María del Carmen Boado‐Penas & Athanasios A. Pantelous, 2016. "How to Finance Pensions: Optimal Strategies for Pay‐as‐You‐Go Pension Systems," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 13-33, January.
    3. Gutiérrez, Octavio & Rubalcava, Luis, 2000. "Políticas para canalizar mayores recursos de los fondos de pensiones hacia la inversión real en México," Financiamiento para el Desarrollo 5307, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Javier Alonso Meseguer & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, 2007. "Reforma de las pensiones: la experiencia internacional," Working Papers 2007-18, FEDEA.
    5. Mesa-Lago, Carmelo, 2004. "Evaluación de un cuarto de siglo de reformas estructurales de pensiones en América Latina," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    6. Uthoff, Andras, 2002. "Mercados de trabajo y sistemas de pensiones," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    7. Pyatt, F Graham & Round, Jeffery I, 1979. "Accounting and Fixed Price Multipliers in a Social Accounting Matrix Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 850-873, December.
    8. Javier Fernández Macho & Pilar González Casimiro, 2004. "Matrices de Contabilidad Social: una panorámica," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 57(03), pages 132-163.
    9. Hernández Licona, Gonzalo, 2001. "Políticas para promover una ampliación de la cobertura de los sistemas de pensiones: el caso de México," Financiamiento para el Desarrollo 5084, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. Mario Bossler, 2015. "The efficiency wage effect of employer provided occupational pensions," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Susana Santos, 2006. "Constructing a Database for Economic Modelling From the System of National Accounts: a Social Accounting Matrix for Portugal," EcoMod2006 272100078, EcoMod.
    2. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1204-1239, December.
    3. Frédéric Gannon & Florence Legros & Vincent Touzé, 2020. "Sustainability of pension schemes. Building a smooth automatic balance mechanism with an application to the us social security," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 377-401.
    4. Hartono, Djoni & Resosudarmo, Budy P., 2008. "The economy-wide impact of controlling energy consumption in Indonesia: An analysis using a Social Accounting Matrix framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1404-1419, April.
    5. Ana Corina Miller & Alan Matthews & Trevor Donnellan & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2011. "A 2005 Agriculture-Food SAM (AgriFood-SAM) for Ireland," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp372, IIIS.
    6. Titelman, Daniel & Vera, Cecilia & Perez Caldentey, Esteban, 2008. "The Latin American experience in pension system reform: Coverage, fiscal issues and possible implications for China," MPRA Paper 13730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Çağatay, Selim & Taşdoğan, Celal & Özeş, Reyhan, 2017. "Analysing the impact of targeted bio-ethanol blending ratio in Turkey," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 6(2), September.
    8. Alvaro Gallardo & Cristian Mardones, 2013. "Environmentally extended social accounting matrix for Chile," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 1099-1127, August.
    9. Laia Pié, 2017. "The Catalan Economy towards the New European Energy Policy: Through Accounting of Greenhouse Emission Multipliers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Melissa De La Ossa & Raúl Castro & Javier Pérez, 2015. "Impactos Económicos de Proyectos de Renovación Urbana en Bogotá: Un Análisis a partir de los Multiplicadores de la SAM 2010," Documentos CEDE 13877, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    11. Xiuli Liu & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2019. "Identification of changes in the economic interactions among sectors from 1995 to 2010 for Chicago economy using hierarchical feedback loop analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(3), pages 637-655, June.
    12. Steve Boucher & J. Edward Taylor, 2006. "Subsistence Response to Market Shocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(2), pages 279-291.
    13. Chapa Cantú Joana Cecilia & Mosqueda Chávez Marco Tulio & Rangel González Erick, 2019. "Social Accounting Matrices for the Regiones of Mexico," Working Papers 2019-20, Banco de México.
    14. Fahman Fathurrahman & Bora Kat & Uğur Soytaṣ, 2017. "Simulating Indonesian fuel subsidy reform: a social accounting matrix analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 591-615, August.
    15. Benedetto Rocchi & Donato Romano & Gianluca Stefani, 2005. "Distributive impacts of alternative agricultural policies: A SAM-based analysis for Italy," Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 77, pages 85-112.
    16. Yasuhide Okuyama & Michael Sonis & Geoffrey Hewings, 2006. "Typology of structural change in a regional economy: a temporal inverse analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 133-153.
    17. Irfan Ahmed & Claudio Socci & Rosita Pretaroli & Francesca Severini & Stefano Deriu, 2022. "Socioeconomic spillovers of the 2016–2017 Italian earthquakes: a bi-regional inoperability model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 426-453, January.
    18. Dario Debowicz, 2016. "A social accounting matrix for Iraq," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
    19. María T. Álvarez-Martínez & Alfredo J. Mainar-Causapé, 2021. "The GHG Emissions Generating Capacity by Productive Sectors in the EU: A SAM Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, February.
    20. Adelman, Irma & Robinson, Sherman, 1986. "The Application of General Equilibrium Models to Analyze U.S. Agriculture," CUDARE Working Papers 198352, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelo lineal MCS; Planes de Retiro y Pensiones Privadas;

    JEL classification:

    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxviii:y:2019:i:1:p:87-134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dora María Vega Facio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feualmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.