IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/obuest/v57y1995i4p547-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Moving Average Detrending and the Analysis of Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Osborn, Denise R

Abstract

This study complements the previous analyses of the effects of different types of detrending, by considering moving average detrending which is widely used in business cycle analysis by official and quasi-official agencies. Such detrending is shown to render a wide range of processes stationary, including those with up to second-order deterministic and/or stochastic nonstationartiy. At the same time, however, the medium and long run properties of the disturbance process are profoundly altered. Applied to an '1' (1) process, the component at a period equal to the moving average length is enhanced, with potentially serious consequences for business cycle analysis. If the detrending is applied to an '1' (2) process, the long run component is emphasized and the resulting (stationary) series may appear to be nonstationary. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Osborn, Denise R, 1995. "Moving Average Detrending and the Analysis of Business Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 547-558, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:57:y:1995:i:4:p:547-58
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pu Chen & Willi Semmler, 2018. "Short and Long Effects of Productivity on Unemployment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 853-878, September.
    2. Bastien Berthelot & Eric Grivel & Pierrick Legrand & Audrey Giremus, 2021. "Definition of the fluctuation function in the detrended fluctuation analysis and its variants," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 94(11), pages 1-20, November.
    3. Sunder, Marco & Woitek, Ulrich, 2005. "Boom, bust, and the human body: Further evidence on the relationship between height and business cycles," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 450-466, December.
    4. Michael Artis, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182(1), pages 90-95, October.
    5. Markus Hertrich, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, November.
    6. Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
    7. Gebhard Flaig & Claudia Plötscher, 2000. "Estimating the Output Gap Using Business Survey Data - A Bivariate Structural Time Series Model for the German Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 233, CESifo.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Sainan Jin, 2021. "Business Cycles, Trend Elimination, And The Hp Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 469-520, May.
    9. Woitek, Ulrich, 2003. "Height cycles in the 18th and 19th centuries," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 243-257, June.
    10. Ulrich Woitek, 1998. "A Note on the Baxter-King Filter," Working Papers 9813, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
    12. Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    13. Alain Guay & Pierre Saint-Amant, 2005. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 77, pages 133-155.
    14. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    15. Andreas Blöchl & Gebhard Flaig, 2014. "The Hodrick-Prescott Filter with a Time-Varying Penalization Parameter. An Application for the Trend Estimation of Global Temperature," CESifo Working Paper Series 4577, CESifo.
    16. Alexandra Krystaloyianni & George Matysiak & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2004. "Forecasting UK Real Estate Cycle Phases With Leading Indicators: A Probit Approach," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2004-15, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    17. Pablo Mejía-Reyes, 1999. "Classical business cycles in Latin America: Turning points, asimmetries and international synchronisation," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 14(2), pages 265-297.
    18. Greg Farrell & Esti Kemp, 2020. "Measuring the Financial Cycle in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 123-144, June.
    19. A'Hearn, Brian & Woitek, Ulrich, 2001. "More international evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 321-346, April.
    20. Eduardo Loría & Emmanuel Salas, 2014. "Ciclos, crecimiento económico y crisis en México, 1980.1-2013.4," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 29(2), pages 131-161.
    21. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Staff Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:57:y:1995:i:4:p:547-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.