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Forecasting Turning Points with Composite Leading Indicators - the Case of Poland

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  • Krzysztof Zalewski

Abstract

This paper concerns the problem of short-term forecasting of economic activity. With the use of Composite Leading Indicators the business cycles of Polish economy are forecasted for 1992–2007 and confronted with real data. Results of Composite Leading Indicator analysis conducted for the end of 2007 suggest possible downturn phase at the beginning of 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Zalewski, 2009. "Forecasting Turning Points with Composite Leading Indicators - the Case of Poland," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eko:ekoeko:24_61
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    File URL: http://ekonomia.wne.uw.edu.pl/ekonomia/getFile/703
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Ronny Nilsson & Olivier Brunet, 2006. "Composite Leading Indicators for Major OECD Non-Member Economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russian Federation, South Africa," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2006/1, OECD Publishing.
    7. Tatiana Fic & Marcin Kolasa & Adam Kot & Karol Murawski & Michal Rubaszek & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2005. "ECMOD Model of the Polish Economy," NBP Working Papers 36, Narodowy Bank Polski.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Puah, Chin-Hong & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Forecasting malaysian business cycle movement: empirical evidence from composite leading indicator," MPRA Paper 36649, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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