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A forecast of globalization, international business and trade: report from a Delphi study

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  • Czinkota, Michael R.
  • Ronkainen, Ilkka A.

Abstract

Globalization causes dramatic changes in business environments both in terms of their degree and swiftness. Forecasting such changes is crucial for the preparation of responses by the affected parties. This article reports on a Delphi study conducted with a set of experts drawn from the policy, business and academic communities ranging from the megamarkets of the world to the emerging and developing ones. Over three rounds of interchange, these experts analyzed and debated the likelihood of changes in the international business environment over the next decade and the impact of these changes on policy and on corporate practices. The findings identify major sectoral transformations, shifts in the trade framework and its institution, and strategies for corporate adjustment. In some cases, these phenomena occur in different geographic areas with diverse effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Czinkota, Michael R. & Ronkainen, Ilkka A., 2005. "A forecast of globalization, international business and trade: report from a Delphi study," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 111-123, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:worbus:v:40:y:2005:i:2:p:111-123
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    Cited by:

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    2. Marcin Kozak & Olesia Iefremova, 2014. "Implementation Of The Delphi Technique In Finance," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(4), pages 36-45, May.
    3. Michael R. Czinkota & Ilkka A. Ronkainen, 2009. "Trends and Indications in International Business," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 249-265, April.
    4. Bohan, Sarah & Tippmann, Esther & Levie, Jonathan & Igoe, Josephine & Bowers, Blake, 2024. "What is scaling?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 39(1).
    5. Nielsen, Christine & Thangadurai, Mohan, 2007. "Janus and the Delphi Oracle: Entering the new world of international business research," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 147-163, June.
    6. Hoorani, Bareerah Hafeez & Plakoyiannaki, Emmanuella & Gibbert, Michael, 2023. "Understanding time in qualitative international business research: Towards four styles of temporal theorizing," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1).
    7. Czinkota, Michael R., 2006. "Academic freedom for all in higher education: The role of the general agreement on trade in services," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 149-160, June.
    8. Klarin, Anton & Inkizhinov, Boris & Nazarov, Dashi & Gorenskaia, Elena, 2021. "International business education: What we know and what we have yet to develop," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(5).
    9. Serrano Caballero, Enriqueta & Ojo, Marianne, 2019. "Trade Negotiations and Global Relations: Emerging Players and Actors," MPRA Paper 92105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Amir Hossein Azadnia & Simon Stephens & Pezhman Ghadimi & George Onofrei, 2022. "A comprehensive performance measurement framework for business incubation centres: Empirical evidence in an Irish context," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 2437-2455, July.
    11. Kedia, Ben L. & Lahiri, Somnath, 2007. "International outsourcing of services: A partnership model," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 22-37, March.
    12. Samir Mili & Maria Bouhaddane, 2021. "Forecasting Global Developments and Challenges in Olive Oil Supply and Demand: A Delphi Survey from Spain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, February.
    13. Winkler, Jens & Moser, Roger, 2016. "Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 63-76.
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