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Bread, Justice, or Opportunity? The Determinants of the Arab Awakening Protests

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  • Costello, Matthew
  • Jenkins, J. Craig
  • Aly, Hassan

Abstract

What were the structural determinants of the recent Arab Awakening protests that engulfed the Arab world? We examine the economic and political grievances along with political opportunities. Time-series analysis of nonviolent and violent protests in 18 Arab-majority countries shows that “bread,” “justice,” and political opportunities mattered. State terror and political openness had the strongest effects. Cell phones facilitated nonviolent protest while mineral rents and monarchies discouraged violent protest. We find no support for a youth bulge or an effect of development. These protests diffused from Egypt and Tunisia with positive spillover for nonviolent protest and negative spillover from violent protest.

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  • Costello, Matthew & Jenkins, J. Craig & Aly, Hassan, 2015. "Bread, Justice, or Opportunity? The Determinants of the Arab Awakening Protests," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 90-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:67:y:2015:i:c:p:90-100
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.10.002
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    5. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Colette Salemi, 2023. "Socioeconomic Status and the Changing Nature of School-to-Work Transitions in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(4), pages 697-723, August.
    6. Bilal El Rafhi & Alexandre Volle, 2020. "The Effect of the Arab Spring on Preferences for Redistribution in Egypt," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(4), pages 875-903, December.
    7. Samuel Brazys & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati & Indra de Soysa, 2019. "Oil Price Volatility and Political Unrest: Prudence and Protest in Producer and Consumer Societies, 1980-2013," Working Papers 201908 Key words: Oil wea, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    8. Abdelbary, Islam & Benhin, James, 2019. "Governance, capital and economic growth in the Arab Region," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 184-191.
    9. Ragui Assaad & Miquel Pellicer & Caroline Krafft & Colette Salemi, 2002. "Grievances or Skills? The Effect of Education on Youth Attitudes and Political Participation in Egypt and Tunisia," Working Papers 1103, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jun 2002.
    10. Matthew Costello, 2018. "Oil and Gas Rents and Civilian Violence in the Middle East and North Africa, 1990–2004: A Resource Curse, or Rentier Peace?," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Pascal L. Ghazalian, 2022. "The effects of the Arab Spring on female labour force participation in the MENA region," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 869-900, October.
    12. Castro Campos, Bente & Ren, Yanjun & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2020. "Scarce water resources and cereal import dependency: The role of integrated water resources management," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(6).
    13. Li Donni, Paolo & Marino, Maria & Welzel, Christian, 2021. "How important is culture to understand political protest?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    14. Nizar Becheikh, 2021. "Political stability and economic growth in developing economies: lessons from Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt ten years after the Arab Spring," Post-Print hal-03583934, HAL.
    15. Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya & de Soysa, Indra, 2020. "Oil price volatility and political unrest: Prudence and protest in producer and consumer societies, 1980–2013," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Alssadek, Marwan & Benhin, James, 2023. "Natural resource curse: A literature survey and comparative assessment of regional groupings of oil-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    17. Bargain, Olivier & Boutin, Delphine & Champeaux, Hugues, 2019. "Women's political participation and intrahousehold empowerment: Evidence from the Egyptian Arab Spring," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    18. Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim & Torero, Maximo, 2016. "Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy," MPRA Paper 72164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Sarah E Croco & Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham & Taylor Vincent, 2023. "Protests and persuasion: Partisanships effect on evaluating nonviolent tactics in the United States," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 26-41, January.
    20. Bilal El Rafhi & Alexandre Volle, 2019. "The Effect of the Arab Spring on the Preferences for Redistribution in Egypt," Post-Print hal-02101392, HAL.
    21. Nizar Becheikh, 2021. "Political stability and economic growth in developing economies: lessons from Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt ten years after the Arab Spring," Insights into Regional Development, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 3(2), pages 229-251, June.
    22. Godfred Bonnah Nkansah, 2022. "Youth Cohort Size, Structural Socioeconomic Conditions, and Youth Protest Behavior in Democratic Societies (1995–2014)," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    23. Furness, Mark, 2018. "Strategic policymaking and the German aid programme in the MENA region since the Arab uprisings," IDOS Discussion Papers 5/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

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