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Famine Mortality, Rational Political Inactivity, and International Food Aid

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  • Plümper, Thomas
  • Neumayer, Eric

Abstract

Summary Famine mortality is preventable by government action and yet some famines kill. We develop a political theory of famine mortality based on the selectorate theory of Bueno de Mesquita et al. [Bueno de Mesquita, B. B., Morrow, J. M., Siverson, R. M., & Smith, A. (2002). Political institutions, policy choice and the survival of leaders. British Journal of Political Science, 32(4), 559-590, Bueno de Mesquita, B. B., Smith, A., Siverson, R. M., & Morrow J. M. (2003). The logic of political survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press]. We argue that it can be politically rational for a government, democratic or not, to remain inactive in the face of severe famine threat. We derive the testable hypotheses that famine mortality is possible in democracies, but likely to be lower than in autocracies. Moreover, a larger share of people being affected by famine relative to population size together with large quantities of international food aid being available will lower the mortality in both regime types, but more so in democracies.

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  • Plümper, Thomas & Neumayer, Eric, 2009. "Famine Mortality, Rational Political Inactivity, and International Food Aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 50-61, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:37:y:2009:i:1:p:50-61
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    1. Pasquale Tridico & Francesco Burchi, 2010. "Institutions, Famine and Inequality," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0121, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. Stephen M. Miller & Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2012. "Demographic Transition and Economic Welfare: The Role of Humanitarian Aid," Working papers 2012-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    3. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2021. "Sanctioned to Death? The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Life Expectancy and its Gender Gap," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 139-162, January.
    4. Sutter, Camille, 2011. "State legitimacy and famines in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 37621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Miller, Stephen M. & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2015. "Demographic transition and economic welfare: The role of in-cash and in-kind transfers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 84-92.
    6. Keefer, Philip & Neumayer, Eric & Plümper, Thomas, 2011. "Earthquake Propensity and the Politics of Mortality Prevention," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1530-1541, September.
    7. Elisabeth Lio Rosvold, 2020. "Disaggregated determinants of aid: Development aid projects in the Philippines," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 38(6), pages 783-803, November.
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    9. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," Research Department Publications 4649, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Neudorfer, Natascha S., 2018. "Commodities and corruption – How the middle class and democratic institutions lead to less corruption in resource-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 175-191.
    11. Francesco Bosello & Shouro Dasgupta, 2015. "Development, Climate Change Adaptation, and Maladaptation: Some Econometric Evidence," Working Papers 2015.97, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Genesis T. Yengoh & Frederick Ato Armah & Edward Ebo Onumah, 2010. "Paths to Attaining Food Security: The Case of Cameroon," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, August.
    13. Daoud, Adel & Halleröd, Björn & Guha Sapir, Debarati, 2015. "Quality of government and the relationship between natural disasters and child poverty: A comparative analysis," MPIfG Discussion Paper 15/5, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    14. Jonas Gamso, 2024. "Food Aid Shocks and Food Insecurity: Does Democracy Matter?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 36(5), pages 1253-1279, October.
    15. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2010. "The Aftermath of Natural Disasters: Beyond Destruction," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(2), pages 25-35, July.
    16. André Schultz & Alexander Libman, 2015. "Is there a local knowledge advantage in federations? Evidence from a natural experiment," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 25-42, January.
    17. Hoddinott, John & Margolies, Amy, 2012. "Mapping the Impacts of Food Aid: Current Knowledge and Future Directions," WIDER Working Paper Series 034, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Francken, Nathalie & Minten, Bart & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2012. "The Political Economy of Relief Aid Allocation: Evidence from Madagascar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 486-500.
    19. Fuchs, Andreas & Klann, Nils-Hendrik, 2013. "Emergency Aid 2.0," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79898, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Vanhaute, Eric, 2009. "From famine to food crisis. What history can teach us about local and global subsistence crises," MPRA Paper 17630, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Howe, Paul, 2018. "Famine systems: A new model for understanding the development of famines," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 144-155.
    22. Amy Margolies & John Hoddinott, 2012. "Mapping the Impacts of Food Aid: Current Knowledge and Future Directions," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-034, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    23. Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2012. "Humanitarian Aid, Fertility and Economic Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 79(313), pages 27-61, January.
    24. Bowbrick, Peter, 2020. "Toxic famine research and how it suppresses its critics," MPRA Paper 101970, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    famine mortality food aid democracy autocracy developing countries;

    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General

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