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Famine systems: A new model for understanding the development of famines

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  • Howe, Paul

Abstract

Humans have experienced famines throughout their history. Even today, the world faces the prospect of several of these crises occurring simultaneously. Yet despite their persistence, there is no agreed model for the development of famines, making it difficult to detect their emergence and to prevent their occurrence. Examining a diverse range of historical and contemporary crises, this paper argues that the evolution of famines can be identified by a set of recognizable elements: pressure, hold, self-reinforcing dynamics, famine system, and rebalancing. It suggests that severe pressure on a population, when held in place for sufficient time, leads to self-reinforcing dynamics that can eventually organize into a famine system that rapidly causes high levels of mortality, until it re-balances and collapses. It contends that this famine systems model can provide analytical insight into the development of most famines and can potentially be used to better identify and respond to these crises in the future.

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  • Howe, Paul, 2018. "Famine systems: A new model for understanding the development of famines," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 144-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:105:y:2018:i:c:p:144-155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Ravallion, 1997. "Famines and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1205-1242, September.
    2. Corbett, Jane, 1988. "Famine and household coping strategies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 1099-1112, September.
    3. Plümper, Thomas & Neumayer, Eric, 2009. "Famine Mortality, Rational Political Inactivity, and International Food Aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 50-61, January.
    4. Maxwell, Daniel & Majid, Nisar & Adan, Guhad & Abdirahman, Khalif & Kim, Jeeyon Janet, 2016. "Facing famine: Somali experiences in the famine of 2011," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 63-73.
    5. Olivier Rubin, 2009. "The Merits of Democracy in Famine Protection – Fact or Fallacy?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 21(5), pages 699-717, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kersti Lust & Martin Klesment & Hannaliis Jaadla, 2023. "Social inequalities in famine mortality in the manorial system of the tsarist Russian province of Livland in the mid‐1840s," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1333-1356, November.
    2. Miikka Voutilainen, 2022. "Income inequality and famine mortality: Evidence from the Finnish famine of the 1860s," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(2), pages 503-529, May.
    3. Maxwell, Daniel & Khalif, Abdullahi & Hailey, Peter & Checchi, Francesco, 2020. "Viewpoint: Determining famine: Multi-dimensional analysis for the twenty-first century," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

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