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The potential impacts of automated cars on urban transport: An exploratory analysis

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  • May, Anthony D.
  • Shepherd, Simon
  • Pfaffenbichler, Paul
  • Emberger, Günter

Abstract

The concept of automated cars is rapidly becoming a reality. Yet there has been very little analysis of the impacts of such developments on the performance of urban transport systems. These impacts are potentially complex. On the positive side, automation has the potential to increase road capacity, make driving available to more people, and reduce accidents and emissions. On the negative side, it could attract users away from public transport, walking and cycling, substantially increase traffic levels and stimulate urban sprawl. These impacts cannot currently be measured empirically and, by the time that they can, it will be too late to change the implementation model to rectify any resulting problems. Predictive assessments are therefore needed. This paper considers the possible impacts of automated vehicles, predicts their effects on the urban land use and transport system, and discusses the policy implications. We focus on automation of the car fleet, and do not consider the potential of automation of public transport or freight.

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  • May, Anthony D. & Shepherd, Simon & Pfaffenbichler, Paul & Emberger, Günter, 2020. "The potential impacts of automated cars on urban transport: An exploratory analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 127-138.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:98:y:2020:i:c:p:127-138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.05.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Alberto Dianin & Elisa Ravazzoli & Georg Hauger, 2021. "Implications of Autonomous Vehicles for Accessibility and Transport Equity: A Framework Based on Literature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, April.
    7. Shibayama, Takeru & Emberger, Günter, 2020. "New mobility services: Taxonomy, innovation and the role of ICTs," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 79-90.
    8. Nikitas, Alexandros & Parkinson, Simon & Vallati, Mauro, 2022. "The deceitful Connected and Autonomous Vehicle: Defining the concept, contextualising its dimensions and proposing mitigation policies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-10.
    9. Haotian Zhong & Wei Li, 2023. "What if autonomous vehicles had been introduced into cities? A counterfactual analysis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(16), pages 3198-3215, December.
    10. Sarri, Paraskevi & Kaparias, Ioannis & Preston, John & Simmonds, David, 2023. "Using Land Use and Transportation Interaction (LUTI) models to determine land use effects from new vehicle transportation technologies; a regional scale of analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 91-111.

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