The UK national cycling strategy: can improved facilities meet the targets?

The Department of Transport's recently launched National Cycling Strategy has the aim of doubling the number of cycle trips by 2002 with a further doubling by 2012. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution recommended a quadrupling of cycle trips to 10% of all journeys by 2005. Given the increased level of interest in cycling and the role it could play in alleviating congestion and environmental problems, it is important that there are mode choice models which can evaluate the impact and benefits of investment in cycle schemes. The contribution of the research reported here is in the development of an enhanced mode choice model which examines cycling in a greater level of detail than is typically the case. The Stated Preference model provides values of the benefits of unsegregated cycle lanes and segregated cycle paths. Although investment in such facilities could lead to significant increases in cycle demand, such that even costly investments may be worthwhile in economic terms, our results indicate that they could not on their own achieve target levels of increased cycle use. Unsegregated facilities could not even satisfy the Department of Transport's medium term objective whilst only in the most favourable set of circumstances could segregated facilities achieve the longer term objective, in the commuting market, of a quadrupling of cycle share. Our results indicate, as might be widely expected, that other traffic management and restraint measures are needed in order to achieve target levels of increased cycle use.