IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v85y2020ics0966692319311330.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries

Author

Listed:
  • Seum, Stefan
  • Schulz, Angelika
  • Kuhnimhof, Tobias

Abstract

Projections indicate that global transport may more than double by 2050. Future car stock and use are of paramount importance for drafting policy measures and for assessing emerging technology developments. This paper uses a unique forecasting approach combining quantitative data and qualitative expert judgements. Based on the historic development of vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) in four OECD countries, the approach assesses potential future development paths for BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and derives VKT saturation levels for these. For this purpose, we investigated eight factors with influence on car ownership and car use. A group of experts established factor values for the BRICS countries and compared these to the factor values in the OECD countries. Subsequently, we linked the factor values to levels of car use. Among the BRICS countries, we expect the lowest VKT saturation levels for India and China, mainly but not exclusively due to their spatial structures and transport policies. Spatial structures, socio-economic legacies and policies, among other factors, are leading to higher expected VKT saturation levels in Brazil, Russia and South Africa. Those countries also face challenges to establish alternatives to the private car.

Suggested Citation

  • Seum, Stefan & Schulz, Angelika & Kuhnimhof, Tobias, 2020. "The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:85:y:2020:i:c:s0966692319311330
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102739
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692319311330
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102739?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    2. Anjula Gurtoo & Colin Williams (ed.), 2015. "Developing Country Perspectives on Public Service Delivery," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-81-322-2160-9, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qodri Febrilian Erahman & Nadhilah Reyseliani & Widodo Wahyu Purwanto & Mahmud Sudibandriyo, 2019. "Modeling Future Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions of Passenger Cars in Indonesia at the Provincial Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-25, August.
    2. Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria, 2014. "It's the economy, stupid: increasing fuel price is enough to explain Peak Car in Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    3. Wang, Rui & Yuan, Quan, 2013. "Parking practices and policies under rapid motorization: The case of China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 109-116.
    4. Wadud, Zia, 2020. "The effects of e-ridehailing on motorcycle ownership in an emerging-country megacity," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 301-312.
    5. Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji & Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2012. "Impacts of urbanization on national transport and road energy use: Evidence from low, middle and high income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 268-277.
    6. Masato Abe, 2011. "Achieving a sustainable automotive sector in Asia and the Pacific: Challenges and opportunities for the reduction of vehicle CO2 emissions," Working Papers 10811, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    7. Paul J. Gertler & Orie Shelef & Catherine D. Wolfram & Alan Fuchs, 2016. "The Demand for Energy-Using Assets among the World's Rising Middle Classes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1366-1401, June.
    8. Yang, Hongtai & Zhai, Guocong & Liu, Xiaohan & Yang, Linchuan & Liu, Yugang & Yuan, Quan, 2022. "Determinants of city-level private car ownership: Effect of vehicle regulation policies and the relative price," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 40-48.
    9. Anugerah Yuka Asmara, 2020. "Innovation in Delivering Public Health Service: Practice In Banyuwangi Regency � Indonesia," GATR Journals gjbssr552, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    10. Elbaum Jean-David, 2021. "The effect of a carbon tax on per capita carbon dioxide emissions: evidence from Finland," IRENE Working Papers 21-05, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    11. Groote, Jesper De & Ommeren, Jos Van & Koster, Hans R.A., 2016. "Car ownership and residential parking subsidies: Evidence from Amsterdam," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 25-37.
    12. Tian Wu & Mengbo Zhang & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-29, November.
    13. Al-Ayyash, Zahwa & Abou-Zeid, Maya & Kaysi, Isam, 2016. "Modeling the demand for a shared-ride taxi service: An application to an organization-based context," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 169-182.
    14. Amoh-Gyimah, Richard & Aidoo, Eric Nimako, 2013. "Mode of transport to work by government employees in the Kumasi metropolis, Ghana," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 35-43.
    15. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2020. "The Influence of the Spread of Automatic Control and Sharing Technologies on Motorization Processes: Concept, Calculation Scheme, Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 254-263, May.
    16. Jeremy Webb & Max Briggs & Clevo Wilson, 2018. "Breaking automotive modal lock-in: a choice modelling study of Jakarta commuters," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 20(1), pages 47-68, January.
    17. Wang, Qiang, 2011. "Time for commercializing non-food biofuel in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 621-629, January.
    18. Nicolas, Jean-Pierre & Pelé, Nicolas, 2017. "Measuring trends in household expenditures for daily mobility. The case in Lyon, France, between 1995 and 2015," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 82-92.
    19. Caroline Bayart & N. Havet & Patrick Bonnel & Louafi Bouzouina, 2019. "Young people and the private car: a love-hate relationship," Post-Print hal-02163268, HAL.
    20. Guo, Zhan, 2013. "Does residential parking supply affect household car ownership? The case of New York City," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 18-28.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:85:y:2020:i:c:s0966692319311330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.