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A stochastic estimation approach to real-time prediction of incident effects on freeway traffic congestion

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  • Sheu, Jiuh-Biing
  • Chou, Yi-Hwa
  • Shen, Liang-Jen

Abstract

Real-time prediction of the effects of freeway incidents on traffic congestion is urgently necessary for the development of advanced freeway incident management systems. This paper presents a stochastic estimation approach to real-time prediction of time-varying delays and queue lengths which are regarded as two significant variables in examining freeway incident congestion in this study. In addition to system specification utilizing four groups of proposed lane traffic variables, a stochastic estimation approach which involves a discrete-time nonlinear stochastic model and an algorithm based on Kalman filtering is developed to estimate real-time delays and queues in the presence of freeway incidents. The proposed method is tested employing simulated data generated via the CORSIM simulation model. The preliminary test results indicate that the proposed method is promising. Utilizing the estimates of delays and queue lengths generated by the proposed method in real time, our further research will aim at developing time-varying incident effect indexes for real-time prediction of the impact magnitude of freeway incidents either in the temporal domain or in the spatial domain. We therefore expect that this study can make available real-time incident-related traffic information with benefits not only for understanding the impact of freeway incidents on traffic congestion, but also for developing advanced incident-responsive traffic management technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheu, Jiuh-Biing & Chou, Yi-Hwa & Shen, Liang-Jen, 2001. "A stochastic estimation approach to real-time prediction of incident effects on freeway traffic congestion," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 575-592, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:35:y:2001:i:6:p:575-592
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael W. Szeto & Denos C. Gazis, 1972. "Application of Kalman Filtering to the Surveillance and Control of Traffic Systems," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 419-439, November.
    2. Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 1999. "A stochastic modeling approach to dynamic prediction of section-wide inter-lane and intra-lane traffic variables using point detector data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 79-100, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jincheng Jiang & Nico Dellaert & Tom Van Woensel & Lixin Wu, 2020. "Modelling traffic flows and estimating road travel times in transportation network under dynamic disturbances," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(6), pages 2951-2980, December.
    2. Jiuh-Biing Sheu, 2002. "A Stochastic Optimal Control Approach to Real-time, Incident-Responsive Traffic Signal Control at Isolated Intersections," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(4), pages 418-434, November.
    3. Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2007. "Microscopic modeling and control logic for incident-responsive automatic vehicle movements in single-automated-lane highway systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 640-662, October.
    4. Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2006. "A composite traffic flow modeling approach for incident-responsive network traffic assignment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 367(C), pages 461-478.
    5. Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2007. "Stochastic modeling of the dynamics of incident-induced lane traffic states for incident-responsive local ramp control," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 386(1), pages 365-380.
    6. Jiuh-Biing Sheu, 2003. "A Stochastic Modeling Approach to Real-Time Prediction of Queue Overflows," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(1), pages 97-119, February.
    7. Jiuh-Biing Sheu, 2003. "Erratum: A Stochastic Modeling Approach to Real-Time Prediction of Queue Overflows," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(2), pages 230-252, May.
    8. Sun, Chenshuo & Pei, Xin & Hao, Junheng & Wang, Yewen & Zhang, Zuo & Wong, S.C., 2018. "Role of road network features in the evaluation of incident impacts on urban traffic mobility," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 117(PA), pages 101-116.

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