IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transb/v152y2021icp205-226.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The value of pre-trip information on departure time and route choice in the morning commute under stochastic traffic conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Han, Xiao
  • Yu, Yun
  • Gao, Zi-You
  • Zhang, H. Michael

Abstract

Uncertainty in transportation systems can incur additional travel costs, but this adverse effect can be mitigated by providing travel information (Lindsey et al., 2014). It is not clear, however, if providing information always reduces system travel costs, particularly when the information provided is not one hundred percent accurate. This paper studies the welfare effects resulting from providing pre-trip information to morning commuters in a two-route network with bottlenecks, where the bottleneck capacity and free-flow travel time on each route are stochastic. We derive the expected travel costs at user equilibrium (UE) under stochastic conditions without and with pre-trip information first on one route, and later on two routes. Under this model, we examine how accurate and inaccurate information affect commuting costs. We find that full and accurate information is welfare-improving under stochastic bottleneck capacity and deterministic free-flow travel time. However, when bottleneck capacity and free-flow travel time are both stochastic, full and accurate information can be welfare-reducing for the two-route scenario. We show that the degree of correlation between routes in traffic conditions, the frequency and severity of bottleneck capacity drops, and the relationship between free-flow travel time and bottleneck capacity significantly affect the welfare effects of pre-trip information. Furthermore, when bottleneck capacity experiences severe drops, full information is more likely to be welfare-improving, even if the provided information is not completely accurate. These theoretical results are supplemented by numerical examples that show the welfare effects of providing pre-trip information to morning commuters.

Suggested Citation

  • Han, Xiao & Yu, Yun & Gao, Zi-You & Zhang, H. Michael, 2021. "The value of pre-trip information on departure time and route choice in the morning commute under stochastic traffic conditions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 205-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:152:y:2021:i:c:p:205-226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2021.08.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S019126152100148X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.trb.2021.08.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fosgerau, Mogens & Jiang, Gege, 2019. "Travel time variability and rational inattention," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Adler, Martin W. & Ommeren, Jos van & Rietveld, Piet, 2013. "Road congestion and incident duration," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 109-118.
    3. Zhu, Zheng & Li, Xinwei & Liu, Wei & Yang, Hai, 2019. "Day-to-day evolution of departure time choice in stochastic capacity bottleneck models with bounded rationality and various information perceptions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 168-192.
    4. Mariska van Essen & Tom Thomas & Eric van Berkum & Caspar Chorus, 2016. "From user equilibrium to system optimum: a literature review on the role of travel information, bounded rationality and non-selfish behaviour at the network and individual levels," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 527-548, July.
    5. Kenneth Small, 2015. "The Bottleneck Model: An Assessment and Interpretation," Working Papers 141506, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    6. Li, Zhi-Chun & Huang, Hai-Jun & Yang, Hai, 2020. "Fifty years of the bottleneck model: A bibliometric review and future research directions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 311-342.
    7. Khan, Zaid & Amin, Saurabh, 2018. "Bottleneck model with heterogeneous information," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 157-190.
    8. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1999. "Information and time-of-usage decisions in the bottleneck model with stochastic capacity and demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 525-548, March.
    9. Jou, Rong-Chang, 2001. "Modeling the impact of pre-trip information on commuter departure time and route choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 887-902, November.
    10. André de Palma & Robin Lindsey & Nathalie Picard, 2012. "Risk Aversion, the Value of Information, and Traffic Equilibrium," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(1), pages 1-26, February.
    11. Soriguera, Francesc, 2014. "On the value of highway travel time information systems," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 294-310.
    12. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1996. "Information and Usage of Free-Access Congestible Facilities with Stochastic Capacity and Demand," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(1), pages 181-203, February.
    13. Lindsey, Robin & Daniel, Terry & Gisches, Eyran & Rapoport, Amnon, 2014. "Pre-trip information and route-choice decisions with stochastic travel conditions: Theory," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 187-207.
    14. André de Palma & Nathalie Picard, 2006. "Equilibria and Information Provision in Risky Networks with Risk-Averse Drivers," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 393-408, November.
    15. Fosgerau, Mogens, 2008. "Congestion costs in bottleneck equilibrium with stochastic capacity and demand," MPRA Paper 10040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1993. "A Structural Model of Peak-Period Congestion: A Traffic Bottleneck with Elastic Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 161-179, March.
    17. Small, Kenneth A., 2015. "The bottleneck model: An assessment and interpretation," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 110-117.
    18. Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010. "The value of reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
    19. Ling-Ling Xiao & Hai-Jun Huang & Ronghui Liu, 2015. "Congestion Behavior and Tolls in a Bottleneck Model with Stochastic Capacity," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(1), pages 46-65, February.
    20. Rapoport, Amnon & Gisches, Eyran J. & Daniel, Terry & Lindsey, Robin, 2014. "Pre-trip information and route-choice decisions with stochastic travel conditions: Experiment," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 154-172.
    21. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-260, May.
    22. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-479, June.
    23. Engelson, Leonid & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2020. "Scheduling preferences and the value of travel time information," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 256-265.
    24. Bifulco, Gennaro N. & Cantarella, Giulio E. & Simonelli, Fulvio & Velonà, Pietro, 2016. "Advanced traveller information systems under recurrent traffic conditions: Network equilibrium and stability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 92(PA), pages 73-87.
    25. David Levinson, 2003. "The Value of Advanced Traveler Information Systems for Route Choice," Working Papers 200307, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    26. Eran Ben-Elia & Erel Avineri, 2015. "Response to Travel Information: A Behavioural Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 352-377, May.
    27. Morten Skou Nicolaisen & Patrick Arthur Driscoll, 2014. "Ex-Post Evaluations of Demand Forecast Accuracy: A Literature Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 540-557, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    2. Zang, Zhaoqi & Batley, Richard & Xu, Xiangdong & Wang, David Z.W., 2024. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Cui, Shaohua & Xue, Yongjie & Gao, Kun & Wang, Kai & Yu, Bin & Qu, Xiaobo, 2024. "Delay-throughput tradeoffs for signalized networks with finite queue capacity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    4. Zahnow, Renee & Abewickrema, Wanuji, 2023. "Examining regularity in vehicular traffic through Bluetooth scanner data: Is the daily commuter the regular road user?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Qiumin Liu & Vincent A.C. van den Berg & Erik T. Verhoef & Rui Jiang, 2024. "Pricing in the Stochastic Bottleneck Model with Price-Sensitive Demand," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-011/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 22 Oct 2024.
    6. Wei Nai & Zan Yang & Dan Li & Lu Liu & Yuting Fu & Yuao Guo, 2024. "Urban Day-to-Day Travel and Its Development in an Information Environment: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-29, March.
    7. Yu, Xiaojuan & van den Berg, Vincent A.C. & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2023. "Congestion pricing and information provision under uncertainty: Responsive versus habitual pricing," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    8. Xu, Xinyue & Liu, Jing & Zhang, Anzhong & XieLan, Shiyu & Li, Zinuo & Liu, Jun & Ran, Bin, 2024. "The impacts of COVID-19 on route choice with guidance information in urban rail transit of megacities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Xiaojuan & van den Berg, Vincent A.C. & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2023. "Congestion pricing and information provision under uncertainty: Responsive versus habitual pricing," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    2. Li, Zhi-Chun & Huang, Hai-Jun & Yang, Hai, 2020. "Fifty years of the bottleneck model: A bibliometric review and future research directions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 311-342.
    3. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    4. Collins, Mor & Etzioni, Shelly & Ben-Elia, Eran, 2024. "Travel behavior and system dynamics in a simple gamified automated multimodal network," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    5. Zhu, Tingting & Li, Yao & Long, Jiancheng, 2022. "Departure time choice equilibrium and tolling strategies for a bottleneck with continuous scheduling preference," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Engelson, Leonid & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2020. "Scheduling preferences and the value of travel time information," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 256-265.
    7. Fosgerau, Mogens & Jiang, Gege, 2019. "Travel time variability and rational inattention," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Xiao, Yu & Coulombel, Nicolas & Palma, André de, 2017. "The valuation of travel time reliability: does congestion matter?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 113-141.
    9. Zhu, Zheng & Li, Xinwei & Liu, Wei & Yang, Hai, 2019. "Day-to-day evolution of departure time choice in stochastic capacity bottleneck models with bounded rationality and various information perceptions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 168-192.
    10. Liu, Qiumin & Jiang, Rui & Liu, Ronghui & Zhao, Hui & Gao, Ziyou, 2020. "Travel cost budget based user equilibrium in a bottleneck model with stochastic capacity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-37.
    11. Ren-Yong Guo & Hai Yang & Hai-Jun Huang, 2018. "Are We Really Solving the Dynamic Traffic Equilibrium Problem with a Departure Time Choice?," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(3), pages 603-620, June.
    12. Sun, Xiaoyan & Han, Xiao & Bao, Jian-Zhang & Jiang, Rui & Jia, Bin & Yan, Xiaoyong & Zhang, Boyu & Wang, Wen-Xu & Gao, Zi-You, 2017. "Decision dynamics of departure times: Experiments and modeling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 483(C), pages 74-82.
    13. Qiumin Liu & Vincent A.C. van den Berg & Erik T. Verhoef & Rui Jiang, 2024. "Pricing in the Stochastic Bottleneck Model with Price-Sensitive Demand," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-011/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 22 Oct 2024.
    14. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    15. Pudāne, Baiba, 2019. "Departure Time Choice and Bottleneck Congestion with Automated Vehicles: Role of On-board Activities," MPRA Paper 96328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Amirgholy, Mahyar & Gonzales, Eric J., 2017. "Efficient frontier of route choice for modeling the equilibrium under travel time variability with heterogeneous traveler preferences," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 11, pages 1-14.
    17. Levy, Nadav & Klein, Ido & Ben-Elia, Eran, 2018. "Emergence of cooperation and a fair system optimum in road networks: A game-theoretic and agent-based modelling approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 46-55.
    18. Deng, Yao & Sheng, Dian & Liu, Baoli, 2021. "Managing ship lock congestion in an inland waterway: A bottleneck model with a service time window," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 142-161.
    19. Nicolas Coulombel & André de Palma, 2014. "The marginal social cost of travel time variability," Post-Print hal-01100105, HAL.
    20. Liu, Yang & Li, Yuanyuan & Hu, Lu, 2018. "Departure time and route choices in bottleneck equilibrium under risk and ambiguity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 117(PB), pages 774-793.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:152:y:2021:i:c:p:205-226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.