IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transb/v143y2021icp160-176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Car following behavioral stochasticity analysis and modeling: Perspective from wave travel time

Author

Listed:
  • Tian, Junfang
  • Zhu, Chenqiang
  • Chen, Danjue
  • Jiang, Rui
  • Wang, Guanying
  • Gao, Ziyou

Abstract

This paper analyzes the car following behavioral stochasticity based on two sets of field experimental trajectory data by measuring the wave travel time series τ˜n(t) of vehicle n. The analysis shows that (i) No matter the speed of leading vehicle oscillates significantly or slightly, τ˜n(t) might change significantly; (ii) A follower's τ˜n(t) can vary from run to run even if the leader travels at the same stable speed; (iii) Sometimes, even if the leader's speed fluctuates significantly, the follower can keep a nearly constant value of τ˜n(t). The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test indicates that the time series ξn(t)=dτ˜n(t)/dt follows a mean reversion process, no matter the oscillations fully developed or not. Based on the finding, a simple stochastic Newell model is proposed. The concave growth pattern of traffic oscillations has been derived analytically. Furthermore, simulation results demonstrate that the new model well captures both macroscopic characteristic of traffic flow evolution and microscopic characteristic of car following.

Suggested Citation

  • Tian, Junfang & Zhu, Chenqiang & Chen, Danjue & Jiang, Rui & Wang, Guanying & Gao, Ziyou, 2021. "Car following behavioral stochasticity analysis and modeling: Perspective from wave travel time," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 160-176.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:143:y:2021:i:c:p:160-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2020.11.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261520304380
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.trb.2020.11.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tang, Cheng Yong & Chen, Song Xi, 2009. "Parameter estimation and bias correction for diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 65-81, April.
    2. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 575-592, April.
    3. Denos C. Gazis & Robert Herman & Richard W. Rothery, 1961. "Nonlinear Follow-the-Leader Models of Traffic Flow," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 545-567, August.
    4. Tian, Junfang & Zhang, H.M. & Treiber, Martin & Jiang, Rui & Gao, Zi-You & Jia, Bin, 2019. "On the role of speed adaptation and spacing indifference in traffic instability: Evidence from car-following experiments and its stochastic model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 334-350.
    5. Chen, Danjue & Laval, Jorge A. & Ahn, Soyoung & Zheng, Zuduo, 2012. "Microscopic traffic hysteresis in traffic oscillations: A behavioral perspective," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1440-1453.
    6. Punzo, Vincenzo & Montanino, Marcello, 2016. "Speed or spacing? Cumulative variables, and convolution of model errors and time in traffic flow models validation and calibration," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 21-33.
    7. Zheng, Zuduo & Ahn, Soyoung & Chen, Danjue & Laval, Jorge, 2011. "Freeway traffic oscillations: Microscopic analysis of formations and propagations using Wavelet Transform," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1378-1388.
    8. Gipps, P.G., 1981. "A behavioural car-following model for computer simulation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 105-111, April.
    9. Sharma, Anshuman & Zheng, Zuduo & Bhaskar, Ashish, 2019. "Is more always better? The impact of vehicular trajectory completeness on car-following model calibration and validation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 49-75.
    10. Hani S. Mahmassani, 2016. "50th Anniversary Invited Article—Autonomous Vehicles and Connected Vehicle Systems: Flow and Operations Considerations," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(4), pages 1140-1162, November.
    11. Jiang, Rui & Hu, Mao-Bin & Zhang, H.M. & Gao, Zi-You & Jia, Bin & Wu, Qing-Song, 2015. "On some experimental features of car-following behavior and how to model them," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 338-354.
    12. Chen, Danjue & Laval, Jorge & Zheng, Zuduo & Ahn, Soyoung, 2012. "A behavioral car-following model that captures traffic oscillations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 744-761.
    13. Laval, Jorge A. & Toth, Christopher S. & Zhou, Yi, 2014. "A parsimonious model for the formation of oscillations in car-following models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 228-238.
    14. Yu Wang & Xiaopeng Li & Junfang Tian & Rui Jiang, 2020. "Stability Analysis of Stochastic Linear Car-Following Models," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 274-297, January.
    15. Chiabaut, Nicolas & Leclercq, Ludovic & Buisson, Christine, 2010. "From heterogeneous drivers to macroscopic patterns in congestion," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 299-308, February.
    16. Schönhof, Martin & Helbing, Dirk, 2009. "Criticism of three-phase traffic theory," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 784-797, August.
    17. Treiber, Martin & Kesting, Arne, 2018. "The Intelligent Driver Model with stochasticity – New insights into traffic flow oscillations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 117(PB), pages 613-623.
    18. Hamdar, Samer H. & Mahmassani, Hani S. & Treiber, Martin, 2015. "From behavioral psychology to acceleration modeling: Calibration, validation, and exploration of drivers’ cognitive and safety parameters in a risk-taking environment," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 32-53.
    19. Treiber, Martin & Kesting, Arne & Helbing, Dirk, 2010. "Three-phase traffic theory and two-phase models with a fundamental diagram in the light of empirical stylized facts," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(8-9), pages 983-1000, September.
    20. Newell, G. F., 2002. "A simplified car-following theory: a lower order model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 195-205, March.
    21. Wagner, Peter, 2012. "Analyzing fluctuations in car-following," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1384-1392.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gao, Caihong & Wang, Ziyang & Wang, Shupei & Li, Ying, 2024. "Mitigating oscillations of mixed traffic flows at a signalized intersection: A multiagent trajectory optimization approach based on oscillation prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 635(C).
    2. Bouadi, Marouane & Jia, Bin & Jiang, Rui & Li, Xingang & Gao, Zi-You, 2022. "Stochastic factors and string stability of traffic flow: Analytical investigation and numerical study based on car-following models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 96-122.
    3. Luo, Ying & Chen, Yanyan & Lu, Kaiming & Chen, Liang & Zhang, Jian, 2024. "Modeling and analysis of heterogeneous traffic flow considering dynamic information flow topology and driving behavioral characteristics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 637(C).
    4. Li, Zhen-Hua & Zheng, Shi-Teng & Jiang, Rui & Tian, Jun-Fang & Zhu, Kai-Xuan & Di Pace, Roberta, 2022. "Empirical and simulation study on traffic oscillation characteristic using floating car data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 605(C).
    5. Meng, Dongli & Song, Guohua & Huang, Jianchang & Lu, Hongyu & Wu, Yizheng & Yu, Lei, 2024. "Car-following model considering jerk-constrained acceleration stochastic process for emission estimation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 639(C).
    6. Haizhen Li & Claudio Roncoli & Weiming Zhao & Yongfeng Ju, 2024. "Assessing the Impact of CAV Driving Strategies on Mixed Traffic on the Ring Road and Freeway," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-23, April.
    7. Bouadi, Marouane & Jia, Bin & Jiang, Rui & Li, Xingang & Gao, Zi-You, 2022. "Stability analysis of stochastic second-order macroscopic continuum models and numerical simulations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 193-209.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tian, Junfang & Li, Guangyu & Treiber, Martin & Jiang, Rui & Jia, Ning & Ma, Shoufeng, 2016. "Cellular automaton model simulating spatiotemporal patterns, phase transitions and concave growth pattern of oscillations in traffic flow," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 560-575.
    2. He, Zhengbing & Zheng, Liang & Guan, Wei, 2015. "A simple nonparametric car-following model driven by field data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 185-201.
    3. Zheng, Shi-Teng & Jiang, Rui & Tian, Jun-Fang & Zhang, H.M. & Li, Zhen-Hua & Gao, Lan-Da & Jia, Bin, 2021. "Experimental study on properties of lightly congested flow," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1-19.
    4. Wen, Jianghui & Hong, Lijiang & Dai, Min & Xiao, Xinping & Wu, Chaozhong, 2023. "A stochastic model for stop-and-go phenomenon in traffic oscillation: On the prospective of macro and micro traffic flow," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    5. Jiang, Rui & Hu, Mao-Bin & Zhang, H.M. & Gao, Zi-You & Jia, Bin & Wu, Qing-Song, 2015. "On some experimental features of car-following behavior and how to model them," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 338-354.
    6. Sun, Jie & Zheng, Zuduo & Sun, Jian, 2020. "The relationship between car following string instability and traffic oscillations in finite-sized platoons and its use in easing congestion via connected and automated vehicles with IDM based control," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 58-83.
    7. Bouadi, Marouane & Jia, Bin & Jiang, Rui & Li, Xingang & Gao, Zi-You, 2022. "Stochastic factors and string stability of traffic flow: Analytical investigation and numerical study based on car-following models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 96-122.
    8. Montanino, Marcello & Monteil, Julien & Punzo, Vincenzo, 2021. "From homogeneous to heterogeneous traffic flows: Lp String stability under uncertain model parameters," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 136-154.
    9. Yao, Handong & Li, Qianwen & Li, Xiaopeng, 2020. "A study of relationships in traffic oscillation features based on field experiments," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 339-355.
    10. Taylor, Jeffrey & Zhou, Xuesong & Rouphail, Nagui M. & Porter, Richard J., 2015. "Method for investigating intradriver heterogeneity using vehicle trajectory data: A Dynamic Time Warping approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 59-80.
    11. Sharma, Anshuman & Zheng, Zuduo & Bhaskar, Ashish & Haque, Md. Mazharul, 2019. "Modelling car-following behaviour of connected vehicles with a focus on driver compliance," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 256-279.
    12. Mohammadian, Saeed & Zheng, Zuduo & Haque, Md. Mazharul & Bhaskar, Ashish, 2021. "Performance of continuum models for realworld traffic flows: Comprehensive benchmarking," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 132-167.
    13. Tian, Junfang & Jiang, Rui & Jia, Bin & Gao, Ziyou & Ma, Shoufeng, 2016. "Empirical analysis and simulation of the concave growth pattern of traffic oscillations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 338-354.
    14. Xu, Tu & Laval, Jorge, 2020. "Statistical inference for two-regime stochastic car-following models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 210-228.
    15. Rehborn, Hubert & Klenov, Sergey L. & Palmer, Jochen, 2011. "An empirical study of common traffic congestion features based on traffic data measured in the USA, the UK, and Germany," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4466-4485.
    16. Tian, Junfang & Treiber, Martin & Ma, Shoufeng & Jia, Bin & Zhang, Wenyi, 2015. "Microscopic driving theory with oscillatory congested states: Model and empirical verification," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 138-157.
    17. Oh, Simon & Yeo, Hwasoo, 2015. "Impact of stop-and-go waves and lane changes on discharge rate in recovery flow," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 88-102.
    18. Ngoduy, D., 2021. "Noise-induced instability of a class of stochastic higher order continuum traffic models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 260-278.
    19. Montanino, Marcello & Punzo, Vincenzo, 2015. "Trajectory data reconstruction and simulation-based validation against macroscopic traffic patterns," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 82-106.
    20. Yu Wang & Xiaopeng Li & Junfang Tian & Rui Jiang, 2020. "Stability Analysis of Stochastic Linear Car-Following Models," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 274-297, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:143:y:2021:i:c:p:160-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.