Evaluating equitable Transit-Oriented development (TOD) via the Node-Place-People model

Transit-oriented development (TOD) has been widely practiced as a strategy to reduce automobile dependence and promote urban sustainability. However, TOD may also inadvertently induce gentrification and displacement and consequently exacerbate social inequity. This study proposes a Node-Place-People (NPP) model, extending from the classical Node-Place framework, to explicitly incorporate equity metrics into TOD analysis. The proposed NPP model is applied to assess 133 future TOD sites under the new regional transit plan, Project Connect, in the Austin, Texas area. 18 variables covering land use, socioeconomics, demographics, and multi-modal transportation connectivity are analyzed, with application of an entropy-weighted method, to generate three composite indices corresponding to NPP’s three dimensions. In the Austin application case, the People dimension measures residents’ vulnerability to the risk of potentially TOD-induced gentrification and displacement. The study then categorizes using the K-means clustering technique the 133 TOD sites into five distinct clusters—downtown, vulnerable, rural, suburban, and urban stations. Results of the analysis reveal significant imbalances along the People-Node and People-Place dimensions even in the TOD sites of relatively balanced Node-Place attributes. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating metrics representing the vulnerable people in future TOD planning to mitigate potential TOD negative impacts on disadvantaged groups, to ultimately foster equitable and sustainable TOD communities.