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A piecewise linear approach to modeling and forecasting demand for Macau tourism

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  • Chu, Fong-Lin

Abstract

In this paper, we construct and use a piecewise linear method to model and forecast, on a monthly basis, the demand for Macau tourism. Data over the period January 1991–December 2005 and a seasonally adjusted series for tourism demand are used. The study examines 4 forecasting horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months in advance. Mean absolute percentage errors and root mean square errors are adopted as criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the forecasting exercises. Finally, the forecasts of piecewise linear model are compared with those of autoregressive trend model, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and its arch-rival fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average models. The piecewise linear model is more accurate than the three benchmark models tested and the improvement is practically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Chu, Fong-Lin, 2011. "A piecewise linear approach to modeling and forecasting demand for Macau tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1414-1420.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:32:y:2011:i:6:p:1414-1420
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2011.01.018
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    Cited by:

    1. Cem Işık & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1344-1357, December.
    2. Xie, Gang & Qian, Yatong & Wang, Shouyang, 2020. "A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Multiple-input multiple-output vs. single-input single-output neural network forecasting”," IREA Working Papers 201502, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2015.
    4. Peng, Bo & Song, Haiyan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2014. "A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
    5. Xinhua Gu & Pui Sun Tam & Chun Kwok Lei & Xiao Chang, 2016. "The Economics of Taxation in Casino Tourism with Cross-border Market Power," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 113-125, February.
    6. Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Filis, George & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-127.
    7. Komkrit Wongkhae & Songsak Sriboonchitta & Kanchana Choketaworn & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2012. "Does price matter? The FMOLS and DOLS estimation of industrial countries tourists outbound to four ASEAN countries," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 1(4), pages 107-128, December.
    8. Dogru, Tarik & Sirakaya-Turk, Ercan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2017. "Remodeling international tourism demand: Old theory and new evidence," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 47-55.
    9. Andrea Saayman & Ilsé Botha, 2017. "Non-linear models for tourism demand forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 594-613, May.
    10. Metaxas, Theodore & Folinas, Sotiris, 2016. "Gambling Tourism and Economic Development: Some lessons from Macao," MPRA Paper 72397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Eden Xiaoying Jiao & Jason Li Chen, 2019. "Tourism forecasting: A review of methodological developments over the last decade," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 469-492, May.
    12. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    13. Hassani, Hossein & Webster, Allan & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Heravi, Saeed, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Tourist arrivals using optimal Singular Spectrum Analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 322-335.
    14. Tarik Dogru & Umit Bulut & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk, 2021. "Modeling tourism demand: Theoretical and empirical considerations for future research," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 874-889, June.
    15. Shaolong Suna & Dan Bi & Ju-e Guo & Shouyang Wang, 2020. "Seasonal and Trend Forecasting of Tourist Arrivals: An Adaptive Multiscale Ensemble Learning Approach," Papers 2002.08021, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    16. Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez & María Santana-Gallego, 2020. "Modelling tourism receipts and associated risks, using long-range dependence models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 70-96, February.

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