Modelling and Forecasting Crude Oil Prices during COVID-19 Pandemic
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Ambya Ambya & Toto Gunarto & Ernie Hendrawaty & Fajrin Satria Dwi Kesumah & Febryan Kusuma Wisnu, 2020. "Future Natural Gas Price Forecasting Model and Its Policy Implication," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 64-70.
- Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2009.
"Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 569-575, July.
- Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?," Working papers 2008-51, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?," Working Papers 0917, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Lee, John H H & King, Maxwell L, 1993. "A Locally Most Mean Powerful Based Score Test for ARCH and GARCH Regression Disturbances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 17-27, January.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Drachal, Krzysztof, 2016. "Forecasting spot oil price in a dynamic model averaging framework — Have the determinants changed over time?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 35-46.
- Safari, Ali & Davallou, Maryam, 2018. "Oil price forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 49-58.
- Toto Gunarto & Rialdi Azhar & Novita Tresiana & Supriyanto Supriyanto & Ayi Ahadiat, 2020. "Accurate Estimated Model of Volatility Crude Oil Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 228-233.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
- C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
- Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
- Rialdi Azhar & Fajrin Satria Dwi Kesumah & Ambya Ambya & Febryan Kusuma Wisnu & Edwin Russel, 2020. "Application of Short-term Forecasting Models for Energy Entity Stock Price (Study on Indika Energi Tbk, JII)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 294-301.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Rialdi Azhar & Febryan Kusuma Wisnu & Fajrin Satria Dwi Kesuma & Widya Rizki Eka Putri & Rian Andri Prasetya, 2022. "State-space Implementation in Forecasting Carbon and Gas Prices in Commodity Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 280-286, May.
- Andr s Oviedo-G mez & Sandra Milena Londo o-Hern ndez & Diego Fernando Manotas-Duque, 2023. "Directional Spillover of Fossil Fuels Prices on a Hydrothermal Power Generation Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 85-90, January.
- Saring Suhendro & Mega Matalia & Sari Indah Oktanti Sembiring, 2021. "Public Sector Policy of Estimating Model for Renewable Energy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 609-613.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
- Bedoui, Rihab & Braiek, Sana & Guesmi, Khaled & Chevallier, Julien, 2019. "On the conditional dependence structure between oil, gold and USD exchange rates: Nested copula based GJR-GARCH model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 876-889.
- Yudong Wang & Li Liu, 2016. "Crude oil and world stock markets: volatility spillovers, dynamic correlations, and hedging," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1481-1509, June.
- Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
- Cheong, Chin Wen, 2009. "Modeling and forecasting crude oil markets using ARCH-type models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2346-2355, June.
- Muhammad Irfan Malik & Abdul Rashid, 2017. "Return And Volatility Spillover Between Sectoral Stock And Oil Price: Evidence From Pakistan Stock Exchange," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(02), pages 1-22, June.
- Hou, Yang & Li, Steven & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Time-varying volatility spillover between Chinese fuel oil and stock index futures markets based on a DCC-GARCH model with a semi-nonparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-143.
- Saring Suhendro & Mega Matalia & Sari Indah Oktanti Sembiring, 2021. "Public Sector Policy of Estimating Model for Renewable Energy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 609-613.
- Fatema Alaali, 2017. "Analysing the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Prices: Evidence from UK Firms," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 418-432.
- Alaali, Fatema, 2017. "Analysing the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Prices: evidence from UK firms," MPRA Paper 78013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Brooks, Robert D. & Davidson, Sinclair & Faff, Robert W., 1997.
"An examination of the effects of major political change on stock market volatility: the South African experience,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 255-275, October.
- Brooks, R & Davidson, S & Faff, R, 1997. "An Examination of the Effects of Major Political Change on Stock Market Volatility : The South African Experience," Papers 97-4, Melbourne - Centre in Finance.
- Gadea, Maria Dolores & Sabate, Marcela & Serrano, Jose Maria, 2004. "Structural breaks and their trace in the memory: Inflation rate series in the long-run," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 117-134, April.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2011.
"Thresholds, news impact surfaces and dynamic asymmetric multivariate GARCH,"
Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(2), pages 125-163, May.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2008. "Thresholds, News Impact Surfaces and Dynamic Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0064, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Caporin, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2010. "Threshold, news impact surfaces and dynamic asymmetric multivariate GARCH," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-36, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Michael McAleer & Massimiliano Caporin, 2010. "Thresholds, News Impact Surfaces and Dynamic Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH," Working Papers in Economics 10/32, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Thresholds, News Impact Surfaces and Dynamic Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-740, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Thresholds, News Impact Surfaces and Dynamic Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2009-11, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Thresholds, News Impact Surfaces and Dynamic Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH," CARF F-Series CARF-F-217, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Thresholds, News Impact Surfaces and Dynamic Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH," KIER Working Papers 741, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Thresholds, News Impact Surfaces and Dynamic Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH," Working Papers in Economics 10/73, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Carnero, María Ángeles, 2004.
"Spurious and hidden volatility,"
DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS
ws042007, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- M. Angeles Carnero & Daniel Peña & Esther Ruiz, 2004. "Spurious And Hidden Volatility," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-45, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Catania, Leopoldo & Proietti, Tommaso, 2020.
"Forecasting volatility with time-varying leverage and volatility of volatility effects,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1301-1317.
- Leopoldo Catania & Tommaso Proietti, 2019. "Forecasting Volatility with Time-Varying Leverage and Volatility of Volatility Effects," CEIS Research Paper 450, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 06 Feb 2019.
- Hakim, Abdul & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Forecasting conditional correlations in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2830-2846.
- Anand, B. & Paul, Sunil & Ramachandran, M., 2014.
"Volatility Spillover between Oil and Stock Market Returns,"
Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 37-56.
- B. Anand & Sunil Paul & M. Ramachandran, 2014. "Volatility Spillover between Oil and Stock Market Returns," Working Papers 2014-095, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
- Pelletier, Denis, 2006.
"Regime switching for dynamic correlations,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 445-473.
- Denis Pelletier, 2004. "Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 230, Econometric Society.
- Suripto & Supriyanto, 2021. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Prices with the Event Window Approach: A Case Study of State Gas Companies, in the Energy Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 155-162.
- Otranto, Edoardo, 2010.
"Identifying financial time series with similar dynamic conditional correlation,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-15, January.
- E. Otranto, 2008. "Identifying Financial Time Series with Similar Dynamic Conditional Correlation," Working Paper CRENoS 200817, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
More about this item
Keywords
Forecasting; COVID-19 pandemic; Crude oil prices; Pandemic; Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-02-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.