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Estimating primate divergence times by using conditioned birth-and-death processes

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  • Wilkinson, Richard D.
  • Tavaré, Simon

Abstract

The fossil record provides a lower bound on the primate divergence time of 54.8 million years ago, but does not provide an explicit estimate for the divergence time itself. We show how the pattern of diversification through the Cenozoic can be combined with a model for speciation to give a distribution for the age of the primates. The primate fossil record, the number of extant primate species, and information about the structure of the primate phylogenetic tree are combined to provide an estimate for the joint distribution of the primate and anthropoid divergence times. To take this information into account, we derive the structure of the birth-and-death process conditioned to have a subtree originate at a particular point in time. This process has a size-biased law and has an immortal line running from the root of the tree to the root of the subtree, with species on the spine having modified offspring and length distributions. We conclude that it is not possible, with this model, to rule out a Cretaceous origin for the primates.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilkinson, Richard D. & Tavaré, Simon, 2009. "Estimating primate divergence times by using conditioned birth-and-death processes," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 75(4), pages 278-285.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:75:y:2009:i:4:p:278-285
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2009.02.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simon Tavaré & Charles R. Marshall & Oliver Will & Christophe Soligo & Robert D. Martin, 2002. "Using the fossil record to estimate the age of the last common ancestor of extant primates," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6882), pages 726-729, April.
    2. Sudhir Kumar & S. Blair Hedges, 1998. "A molecular timescale for vertebrate evolution," Nature, Nature, vol. 392(6679), pages 917-920, April.
    3. Olaf R. P. Bininda-Emonds & Marcel Cardillo & Kate E. Jones & Ross D. E. MacPhee & Robin M. D. Beck & Richard Grenyer & Samantha A. Price & Rutger A. Vos & John L. Gittleman & Andy Purvis, 2007. "The delayed rise of present-day mammals," Nature, Nature, vol. 446(7135), pages 507-512, March.
    4. Chauvin, Brigitte & Rouault, Alain & Wakolbinger, Anton, 1991. "Growing conditioned trees," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 117-130, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandra Gavryushkina & David Welch & Tanja Stadler & Alexei J Drummond, 2014. "Bayesian Inference of Sampled Ancestor Trees for Epidemiology and Fossil Calibration," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.

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