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Using the fossil record to estimate the age of the last common ancestor of extant primates

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Tavaré

    (University of Southern California)

  • Charles R. Marshall

    (Harvard University)

  • Oliver Will

    (University of Washington)

  • Christophe Soligo

    (Universität Zürich-Irchel
    Museum, Universität Zürich-Irchel
    The Natural History Museum)

  • Robert D. Martin

    (Academic Affairs, Field Museum)

Abstract

Divergence times estimated from molecular data often considerably predate the earliest known fossil representatives of the groups studied. For the order Primates, molecular data calibrated with various external fossil dates uniformly suggest a mid-Cretaceous divergence from other placental mammals, some 90 million years (Myr) ago1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9, whereas the oldest known fossil primates are from the basal Eocene epoch (54–55 Myr ago). The common ancestor of primates should be earlier than the oldest known fossils10,11, but adequate quantification is needed to interpret possible discrepancies between molecular and palaeontological estimates. Here we present a new statistical method, based on an estimate of species preservation derived from a model of the diversification pattern, that suggests a Cretaceous last common ancestor of primates, approximately 81.5 Myr ago, close to the initial divergence time inferred from molecular data. It also suggests that no more than 7% of all primate species that have ever existed are known from fossils. The approach unites all the available palaeontological methods of timing evolutionary events: the fossil record, extant species and clade diversification models.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Tavaré & Charles R. Marshall & Oliver Will & Christophe Soligo & Robert D. Martin, 2002. "Using the fossil record to estimate the age of the last common ancestor of extant primates," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6882), pages 726-729, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:416:y:2002:i:6882:d:10.1038_416726a
    DOI: 10.1038/416726a
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    Cited by:

    1. McKinley Trevelyan & Cook Alex R & Deardon Robert, 2009. "Inference in Epidemic Models without Likelihoods," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-40, July.
    2. Michael D Nowak & Andrew B Smith & Carl Simpson & Derrick J Zwickl, 2013. "A Simple Method for Estimating Informative Node Age Priors for the Fossil Calibration of Molecular Divergence Time Analyses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-13, June.
    3. Alexandra Gavryushkina & David Welch & Tanja Stadler & Alexei J Drummond, 2014. "Bayesian Inference of Sampled Ancestor Trees for Epidemiology and Fossil Calibration," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Wilkinson, Richard D. & Tavaré, Simon, 2009. "Estimating primate divergence times by using conditioned birth-and-death processes," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 75(4), pages 278-285.

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