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Collaborative foresight: Complementing long-horizon strategic planning

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  • Weigand, Kirk
  • Flanagan, Thomas
  • Dye, Kevin
  • Jones, Peter

Abstract

An action case study demonstrates an effective integration of collaborative planning using long-range foresight in a hierarchical government research organization. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of collaborative, bottom-up strategic planning as a complement to top-down strategizing. Large research institutions plan investment over long time horizons and must cope with significant uncertainty, complexity, and mandate changes. Collaborative foresight enhances organizational resilience by improving ideation, problem definition, and consensus in long-horizon strategies. It increases the variety of perspectives in scenario creation, resulting in improved strategic options. Structured Dialogic Design (SDD) was employed as a complementary strategic planning method to the mandated Capabilities-Based Planning (CBP) process. The two methods were conducted in parallel sessions with different organizational participants, strictly limiting information sharing between teams. Participants using SDD to plan efficiently produced a detailed structure representing long-horizon strategic challenges and solution ideas. This collaborative foresight approach demonstrated strong consensus for organizational priorities defined in scenarios and investment pathways. The SDD method demonstrated that transactive and generative planning integrated with traditional rational planning and surpassed it by incorporating deep tacit knowledge from diverse participants. It also fostered organizational cohesion through facilitated collaboration in the planning sessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Weigand, Kirk & Flanagan, Thomas & Dye, Kevin & Jones, Peter, 2014. "Collaborative foresight: Complementing long-horizon strategic planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 134-152.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:85:y:2014:i:c:p:134-152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.016
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    4. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
    5. Taferner, Stefan Gerhard, 2023. "Strategic Foresight Capability and its Impact on Firm Performance: A systematic, AI-based Literature Review," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 8(3), pages 658-681.
    6. Kim, Jieun & Lee, Changyong, 2017. "Novelty-focused weak signal detection in futuristic data: Assessing the rarity and paradigm unrelatedness of signals," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 59-76.
    7. Gattringer, Regina & Wiener, Melanie, 2020. "Key factors in the start-up phase of collaborative foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Wooseok Jang & Yongtae Park & Hyeonju Seol, 2021. "Identifying emerging technologies using expert opinions on the future: A topic modeling and fuzzy clustering approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(8), pages 6505-6532, August.
    9. Wiener, Melanie & Gattringer, Regina & Strehl, Franz, 2020. "Collaborative open foresight - A new approach for inspiring discontinuous and sustainability-oriented innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    10. Betz, Ulrich A.K. & Betz, Frederick & Kim, Rachel & Monks, Brendan & Phillips, Fred, 2019. "Surveying the future of science, technology and business – A 35 year perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 137-147.
    11. Bootz, Jean-Philippe & Michel, Sophie & Pallud, Jessie & Monti, Régine, 2022. "Possible changes of Industry 4.0 in 2030 in the face of uberization: Results of a participatory and systemic foresight study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    12. Zeng, Michael A. & Koller, Hans & Jahn, Reimo, 2019. "Open radar groups: The integration of online communities into open foresight processes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 204-217.
    13. Beatrice Villari, 2022. "Designing Sustainable Services for Cities: Adopting a Systemic Perspective in Service Design Experiments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-15, October.
    14. Gattringer, Regina & Wiener, Melanie & Strehl, Franz, 2017. "The challenge of partner selection in collaborative foresight projects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 298-310.
    15. Chiara Battistoni & Carolina Giraldo Nohra & Silvia Barbero, 2019. "A Systemic Design Method to Approach Future Complex Scenarios and Research Towards Sustainability: A Holistic Diagnosis Tool," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-30, August.
    16. Zhu, Lin & Cunningham, Scott W., 2022. "Unveiling the knowledge structure of technological forecasting and social change (1969–2020) through an NMF-based hierarchical topic model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

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